2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Before President Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some. However, after incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column.

Although Harris carried New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004. This is the second consecutive election where the state voted to the right of neighboring Colorado, after doing so for the first time since 1968 the previous cycle. This was also the second time in its history that it did not vote for the winner of the national popular vote, after 1976 (in 2000 and 2016, it voted for the candidate who won the popular vote but not the electoral vote).

Despite Harris losing significant support among Hispanic voters, she held her own in New Mexico, which has the highest percentage of Hispanics of any state. This was the first time that New Mexico voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote, and the first time since statehood that any major party candidate won two terms in the White House without ever carrying the state at least once. This also marked the third of only three times since its statehood in 1912 that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without carrying New Mexico (along with 2000 and 2016).

Primary elections Democratic primary

The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

Republican primary

The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

Libertarian primary

The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.

+ New Mexico Libertarian primary, June 4, 2024 Candidate Votes Percentage Lars Mapstead 432 56.5% None of the Above 332 43.5% Total: 764 100.0% Source:

General election Candidates The following presidential candidates received ballot access in New Mexico: Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation Laura Ebke, Liberal Party USA Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report June 12, 2024 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis November 1, 2024 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist August 20, 2024538 June 11, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedVictory InsightsNovember 1–3, 2024600 (LV)–49.6%44.7%5.7%SurveyUSAOctober 28–31, 2024632 (LV)± 5.5%50%44%6%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–26, 2024749 (LV)± 3.0%49%44%7%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19−22, 2024708 (LV)± 3.0%50%44%6%SurveyUSASeptember 12–18, 2024619 (LV)± 5.4%50%42%8% September 10, 2024 The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludesEmerson CollegeAugust 20–22, 2024956 (RV)± 3.1%52%42%6%54%46%– August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedRedfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 2024382 (LV)–49%45%–2%1%3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024521 (LV)–49%44%–1%1%5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeAugust 20–22, 2024956 (RV)± 3.1%51%40%3%0%0%0%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 12–15, 2024592 (LV)–47%41%6%–0%0%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 31 – August 3, 2024493 (LV)–44%37%8%–0%0%11%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedResearch & Polling Inc.October 10–18, 20241,024 (LV)± 3.1%50%41%3%6%Research & Polling Inc.September 6–13, 2024532 (LV)± 4.2%49%39%3%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /Undecided1892 Polling (R)June 19–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%5%Public Policy Polling (D)June 13–14, 2024555 (V)± 4.2%48%41%11%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024505 (LV)–49%42%9%Public Policy Polling (D)August 23–24, 2023767 (RV)± 3.5%49%41%10%Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 6–8, 2023500 (LV)–49%38%13%Emerson CollegeOctober 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%38%14%Emerson CollegeSeptember 8–11, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. JillStein ChaseOliver RandallTerry Other /Undecided1892 Polling (R)June 19–24, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%42%8%3%2%1%3%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024505 (LV)–41%46%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024505 (LV)–46%36%18%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden RonDeSantis Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)August 23–24, 2023767 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%9%Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 6–8, 2023500 (LV)–45%43%12%

Results

By county County Kamala HarrisDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 184,117 59.23% 118,762 38.21% 7,965 2.56% 65,355 21.03% 310,844 Catron 571 24.23% 1,752 74.33% 34 1.44% -1,181 -50.11% 2,357 Chaves 5,941 26.76% 15,894 71.59% 365 1.64% -9,953 -44.83% 22,200 Cibola 4,450 49.57% 4,311 48.02% 216 2.41% 139 1.55% 8,977 Colfax 2,436 41.91% 3,252 55.94% 125 2.15% -816 -14.04% 5,813 Curry 4,230 27.79% 10,714 70.38% 279 1.83% -6,484 -42.59% 15,223 De Baca 206 23.57% 649 74.26% 19 2.17% -443 -50.69% 874 Doña Ana 45,937 53.79% 37,594 44.02% 1,876 2.20% 8,343 9.77% 85,407 Eddy 5,032 21.44% 18,141 77.29% 299 1.27% -13,109 -55.85% 23,472 Grant 7,301 51.33% 6,580 46.26% 343 2.41% 721 5.07% 14,224 Guadalupe 959 49.48% 945 48.76% 34 1.75% 14 0.72% 1,938 Harding 128 29.70% 297 68.91% 6 1.39% -169 -39.21% 431 Hidalgo 705 37.86% 1,140 61.22% 17 0.91% -435 -23.36% 1,862 Lea 3,930 18.53% 16,997 80.14% 282 1.33% -13,067 -61.61% 21,209 Lincoln 3,033 29.84% 6,942 68.29% 190 1.87% -3,909 -38.46% 10,165 Los Alamos 7,726 63.40% 4,047 33.21% 414 3.40% 3,679 30.19% 12,187 Luna 3,176 39.42% 4,698 58.32% 182 2.26% -1,522 -18.89% 8,056 McKinley 15,711 60.74% 9,364 36.20% 792 3.06% 6,347 24.54% 25,867 Mora 1,439 57.86% 1,010 40.61% 38 1.53% 429 17.25% 2,487 Otero 8,582 35.40% 15,117 62.36% 543 2.24% -6,535 -26.96% 24,242 Quay 1,055 28.48% 2,570 69.38% 79 2.13% -1,515 -40.90% 3,704 Rio Arriba 9,373 58.62% 6,268 39.20% 348 2.18% 3,105 19.42% 15,989 Roosevelt 1,820 27.41% 4,687 70.60% 132 1.99% -2,867 -43.18% 6,639 San Juan 17,464 33.00% 34,264 64.74% 1,198 2.26% -16,800 -31.74% 52,926 San Miguel 6,985 62.88% 3,887 34.99% 236 2.12% 3,098 27.89% 11,108 Sandoval 41,205 51.80% 36,605 46.02% 1,730 2.18% 4,600 5.78% 79,540 Santa Fe 61,405 73.35% 20,457 24.44% 1,857 2.22% 40,948 48.91% 83,719 Sierra 2,332 39.17% 3,473 58.34% 148 2.49% -1,141 -19.17% 5,953 Socorro 3,384 46.79% 3,651 50.48% 198 2.74% -267 -3.69% 7,233 Taos 12,038 72.36% 4,139 24.88% 459 2.76% 7,899 47.48% 16,636 Torrance 2,144 29.86% 4,880 67.98% 155 2.16% -2,736 -38.11% 7,179 Union 378 22.70% 1,247 74.89% 40 2.40% -869 -52.19% 1,665 Valencia 13,609 40.90% 19,057 57.27% 611 1.84% -5,448 -16.37% 33,277Totals478,80251.85%423,39145.85%21,2102.30%55,4116.00%923,403 County that flipped from Democratic to Republican Socorro (largest city: Socorro)

By congressional district Harris won two of three congressional districts, with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat. District Harris Trump Representative 55.06% 42.39%Melanie Stansbury 48.05% 49.86%Gabe Vasquez 51.51% 46.31%Teresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis A Southwestern state, New Mexico is a moderately blue state. The last Republican to win the state's electoral votes was George W. Bush from neighboring Texas in 2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since 2019, and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state starting in 2008.

New Mexico voted 7.5% to the left of the nation in this election, about 1 percent more Democratic than in 2020, during which it voted 6.3% to the left of the nation. Trump flipped majority-Hispanic Socorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Also, Trump won Lea County with 80.1% of the vote, marking the first time ever that a Republican presidential candidate won over 80% of any New Mexico county's vote. It also marked the first time any candidate of either party did so since 2008, when Barack Obama carried Taos County with nearly 82% of the vote.

This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. Trump is the first president to win two terms without ever carrying New Mexico, since it became a state. This is the first election since 1976 that the state voted for the loser of both the popular and electoral vote. It is also the second time since statehood that it voted for a different candidate than Nevada, another Southwestern state, after 2000.

See also United States presidential elections in New Mexico 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

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