2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained no further congressional seats.

On election night, Trump carried the state with an overwhelming victory margin of 36.45%, the highest out of any Republican presidential victory in the state since 1980. It was Trump's fourth strongest state in margin of victory, behind Idaho, West Virginia and Wyoming. Trump's 66.96% vote share is the largest for any presidential candidate in the state since 1952.

By margin, this was the worst performance by a Democratic presidential nominee in North Dakota since 1980, when Jimmy Carter lost the state by about 38%. Harris lost the state by 36.45%, worse than Hillary Clinton's 35.73% losing margin in 2016.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The North Dakota Democratic primary was held mostly through mail in ballots. Limited in-person voting was held, and all ballots were due March 30, 2024.

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican caucuses were held on March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday, where 15 states and 865 total delegates were up for election.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 June 11, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald Trump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedLake Research Partners (D)September 23–26, 2024500 (LV)–50%40%10%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald Trump KamalaHarris ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R)September 28–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%59%32%1%8% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald Trump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedPublic Opinion Strategies (R)June 15–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%62%28%10%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–55%37%8%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023419 (RV)± 4.8%54%17%28%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–51%36%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024300 (LV)–58%30%12%

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocratic-NPLVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams96280.10%21517.90%242.00%74762.20%1,201Barnes3,53166.14%1,66131.11%1472.75%1,87035.03%5,339Benson1,16358.09%79539.71%442.20%36818.38%2,002Billings54383.93%9314.37%111.70%45069.55%647Bottineau2,62876.24%73521.32%842.44%1,89354.92%3,447Bowman1,38485.54%20712.79%271.67%1,17772.74%1,618Burke90986.08%13012.31%171.61%77973.77%1,056Burleigh36,59570.02%14,21527.20%1,4532.78%22,38042.82%52,263Cass47,87352.69%40,30444.36%2,6742.94%7,5698.33%90,851Cavalier1,46173.53%49124.71%351.76%97048.82%1,987Dickey1,82974.56%55722.71%672.73%1,27251.85%2,453Divide91476.10%25321.07%342.83%66155.04%1,201Dunn1,87783.72%33214.81%331.47%1,54568.91%2,242Eddy86271.54%31626.22%272.24%54645.31%1,205Emmons1,69787.93%20510.62%281.45%1,49277.31%1,930Foster1,32677.86%33519.67%422.47%99158.19%1,703Golden Valley84785.47%12212.31%222.22%72573.16%991Grand Forks18,12357.70%12,46939.70%8192.61%5,65418.00%31,411Grant1,07682.39%20515.70%251.91%87166.69%1,306Griggs96374.71%30123.35%251.94%66251.36%1,289Hettinger1,08983.38%19214.70%251.91%89768.68%1,306Kidder1,13781.33%23817.02%231.65%89964.31%1,398LaMoure1,61476.02%45321.34%562.64%1,16154.69%2,123Logan89886.93%11711.33%181.74%78175.61%1,033McHenry2,22380.78%47917.41%501.82%1,74463.37%2,752McIntosh1,13281.44%22916.47%292.09%90364.96%1,390McKenzie4,62783.81%80914.65%851.54%3,81869.15%5,521McLean4,23178.05%1,09320.16%971.79%3,13857.89%5,421Mercer3,79883.38%67214.75%851.87%3,12668.63%4,555Morton12,83975.36%3,74822.00%4492.64%9,09153.36%17,036Mountrail2,87770.64%1,12527.62%711.74%1,75243.01%4,073Nelson1,14164.79%58032.94%402.27%56131.86%1,761Oliver90983.62%15614.35%222.02%75369.27%1,087Pembina2,35075.51%70422.62%581.86%1,64652.89%3,112Pierce1,49375.79%43922.28%381.93%1,05453.50%1,970Ramsey3,60968.89%1,51328.88%1172.23%2,09640.01%5,239Ransom1,66162.70%92034.73%682.57%74127.97%2,649Renville99382.20%17914.82%362.98%81467.38%1,208Richland5,57667.50%2,47329.94%2122.57%3,10337.56%8,261Rolette1,42735.02%2,56762.99%811.99%-1,140-27.98%4,075Sargent1,32564.86%66332.45%552.69%66232.40%2,043Sheridan64485.07%10113.34%121.59%54371.73%757Sioux28529.91%65468.63%141.47%-369-38.72%953Slope35190.23%338.48%51.29%31881.75%389Stark12,32381.61%2,47316.38%3042.01%9,85065.23%15,100Steele62261.28%36736.16%262.56%25525.12%1,015Stutsman7,18570.90%2,69226.56%2572.54%4,49344.34%10,134Towner79671.45%28925.94%292.60%50745.51%1,114Traill2,65064.40%1,35933.03%1062.58%1,29131.37%4,115Walsh3,18670.86%1,17326.09%1373.05%2,01344.77%4,496Ward20,63572.27%7,21525.27%7022.46%13,42047.00%28,552Wells1,81580.56%40517.98%331.46%1,41062.58%2,253Williams12,50182.67%2,27615.05%3452.28%10,22567.62%15,122Totals246,50566.96%112,32730.51%9,3232.53%134,17836.45%368,155

By congressional district Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results. District Trump Harris RepresentativeAt-large 66.96% 30.51%Julie Fedorchak

Analysis A sparsely populated Great Plains state with a predominantly White populace and electorate, North Dakota has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in his nationwide 1964 landslide. Furthermore, it has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since 1964: 1976, 1996, and 2008. Agribusiness and the recent oil boom have played a key role in cementing the GOP's overwhelming dominance in the state.

North Dakota has one of the highest percentage of Native Americans in the country, a constituency that has been relatively solidly Democratic in the past. In 2024, however, Native Americans shifted heavily to the right, with North Dakota's Native population following that trend. Sioux County, North Dakota's most Native American county, shifted harder to the right than any county in the state.

North Dakota is considered a deeply red state, and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump won it by over 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. In terms of popular vote percentage, North Dakota was Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver's strongest state, with 1.7 percent.

See also United States presidential elections in North Dakota 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References