The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census.
Pennsylvania held the largest electoral prize of all major swing states in 2024, with 19 electoral votes. As such, it was generally forecasted that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency. Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election. Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state in the election, providing Trump the 270th electoral vote. Pennsylvania voted 0.23% more Republican than the nation, while Michigan voted the closest to the nation, voting 0.06% more Democratic than the nation at-large.
Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.71% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won over 50% of the vote.
Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General. Except for the Senate race, all 2024 Pennsylvania Republican statewide candidates won over 50% of the vote. Trump received more than 3.5 million votes, the most cast for any candidate in Pennsylvania history.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election Voting law changes In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.
Trump assassination attempt
On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer, Corey D. Comperatore of Sarver, PA, died and two others were critically injured.
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 4, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 4, 2024 CNN November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 The Economist November 4, 2024 538 November 4, 2024 Inside Elections November 4, 2024 NBC News November 4, 2024
Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump Other /UndecidedMargin270ToWinOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.2%48.2%3.6%Tie538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.9% 47.7%4.4%Harris +0.2%Silver Bulletinthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.0%48.1%3.9%Trump +0.1%Real Clear Politicsthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.5%48.9%2.6%Trump +0.4%The Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.0%48.8%3.2%Trump +0.8%Average48.12%48.34%3.8%Trump +0.22%