The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Vermont was won by the Democratic nominee for the ninth time in as many presidential elections. Vice President Kamala Harris carried Vermont by nearly 32 points, a slight decrease from Joe Biden's 35-point victory four years earlier. Nonetheless, it provided Harris with her largest winning margin of any state in 2024.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.

Democratic primary

The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 June 11, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered SamplesizeMarginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /Undecided August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludesUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024924 (LV)± 3.2%70%29%1% August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireOctober 29 – November 2, 20241,167 (LV)± 2.9%63%31%2%0%–0%4%University of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024924 (LV)± 3.2%67%27%3%0%–0%3% Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024272 (LV)–56%35%9%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityFebruary 29 – March 3, 2024117 (RV)–58%28%14%111 (LV)59%28%13%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll sourceDate(s)administered SamplesizeMarginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024272 (LV)–47%42%11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024272 (LV)–52%29%19%

Results

By county County Kamala HarrisDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total # % # % # % # % Addison 14,879 65.82% 6,841 30.26% 887 3.92% 8,038 35.56% 22,607 Bennington 12,326 59.52% 7,697 37.17% 687 3.31% 4,629 22.35% 20,710 Caledonia 8,977 53.97% 6,927 41.65% 729 4.38% 2,050 12.32% 16,633 Chittenden 72,656 74.65% 20,937 21.51% 3,736 3.84% 51,719 53.14% 97,329 Essex 1,344 39.24% 1,890 55.18% 191 5.58% -546 -15.94% 3,425 Franklin 13,280 49.66% 12,490 46.70% 973 3.64% 790 2.96% 26,743 Grand Isle 2,940 58.79% 1,893 37.85% 168 3.36% 1,047 20.94% 5,001 Lamoille 9,788 65.94% 4,505 30.35% 551 3.71% 5,283 35.59% 14,844 Orange 10,220 57.83% 6,683 37.82% 769 4.35% 3,537 20.01% 17,672 Orleans 7,006 47.45% 7,233 48.99% 526 3.56% -227 -1.54% 14,765 Rutland 17,375 50.95% 15,586 45.70% 1,141 3.35% 1,789 5.25% 34,102 Washington 24,527 69.35% 9,327 26.37% 1,515 4.28% 15,200 42.98% 35,369 Windham 17,904 69.04% 6,928 26.71% 1,101 4.25% 10,976 42.33% 25,933 Windsor 22,569 65.82% 10,458 30.50% 1,262 3.68% 12,111 35.32% 34,289Totals235,79163.83%119,39532.32%14,2363.85%116,39631.51%369,422 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Orleans (largest municipality: Derby)

By congressional district Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results. District Trump Harris RepresentativeAt-large 32.32% 63.83%Becca Balint

Analysis A sparsely populated state in New England, Vermont is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be deeply blue, contradicting a trend in modern American electoral politics in which rural areas tend to be red. It was historically a moderate to liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H. W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988, the exception being Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000. As a measure of how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to have won the White House without carrying Vermont.

Despite it being Harris’s strongest state, all of the state’s counties shifted rightward. Bernie Sanders had his weakest Senate election performance in the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Vermont. Moderate Republican governor Phil Scott won in a landslide in the 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election.

Trump managed to narrowly flip Orleans County, the first time for a presidential Republican candidate since 2000, and also the first time a Republican had won any county other than Essex County since then. Vermont was once again the most Democratic state in the nation, only the second occasion in the state's history (behind 2020) in which it was the strongest for the Democrats, and the first time since 1956 in which it was the strongest state for either party in back-to-back elections.*

See also United States presidential elections in Vermont 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election 2024 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References