2024 United States presidential election in Texas

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.

Texas was considered by some pollsters and experts to be potentially in play, as the state had not backed a Republican for president by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012. This increased competitiveness was largely explained by the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip to the Democratic candidate for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 state elections, predominantly Hispanic South Texas shifted significantly Republican, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms. In 2024, Trump went on to win Texas by a margin of over 1.5 million votes, the largest margin of victory in the state in 2 decades in terms of absolute vote count (although Harris' 42.5% of the vote did exceed the Democratic vote percentage in the 2012 and 2004 elections within those 2 decades).

Trump’s 13.7% margin was significantly greater than his single-digit margins in 2016 and 2020. Trump significantly outperformed his polling averages in the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Texas by double digits since 2012, reversing the trend towards Democrats that Texas had exhibited in the two previous presidential elections. According to exit polls, 55% of Latinos in the state voted for Trump. This marked the first time a Republican candidate won a majority of both Asian and Latino voters in Texas, a feat that even former Governor George W. Bush did not achieve.

Trump carried all but two Texas counties located on the Mexico–United States border (El Paso County and Presidio County), and most of these border counties had some of the largest swings in the country, some shifting upwards of 20% to the right. Trump made his largest county gain in the country in 95% Hispanic Maverick County, which swung 28% to the right. Trump also won 97.7% Hispanic Starr County, the most Hispanic county in the country, the first time a Republican won the county since 1892. Harris's total of 12 counties won was the least for any Democrat in the state since George McGovern in 1972.

Trump became the first presidential candidate to receive over 6 million votes in Texas, setting a record for the most votes received by a candidate in any election in the state, as well as the largest vote total ever received by a Republican presidential candidate in any state. Greater Houston and the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex also flipped back to supporting Trump after voting for Joe Biden in 2020.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada.

Republican primary

The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. independent bid The Texas Secretary of State's office announced on August 8 that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would appear on the state ballot. Kennedy dropped out of the race nationally on August 23.

General election Candidates

The following presidential candidates received ballot access in Texas:

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation (write-in) Cornel West, Justice for All Party (write-in) Peter Sonski, American Solidarity Party (write-in) Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent (write-in)

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot under the Texas Independent Party before he suspended his campaign.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report August 27, 2024 Inside Elections August 29, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball September 25, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill October 4, 2024 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 13, 2024538 October 5, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 18 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.4%51.8%3.8%Trump +7.4%538538through November 3, 2024November 3, 202443.8%51.7%4.5%Trump +7.9%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.3%51.4%4.3%Trump +7.1%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough October 29, 2024November 3, 202444.2%51.8%4.0%Trump +7.6%Average44.2%51.7%4.1%Trump +7.5%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /undecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,434 (LV)± 2.0%55%44%1%Morning ConsultOctober 22−31, 20242,120 (LV)± 2.0%52%45%3%ActiVoteOctober 21−27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%–New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 20241,180 (RV)± 3.3%52%41%7%1,180 (LV)52%42%6%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–25, 20241,002 (LV)± 3.0%50%44%6%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20246,526 (A)–51%47%2%6,473 (LV)51%47%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 18−21, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%53%46%1%53%46%1%Rose Institute/YouGovOctober 7–17, 20241,108 (RV)± 3.5%49%44%7%1,108 (RV)50%45%5%1,075 (LV)51%46%3%ActiVoteSeptember 26 − October 16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%–Morning ConsultOctober 6−15, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.0%50%46%4%Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,365 (RV)± 3.3%52%46%2%1,186 (LV)± 3.6%53%46%1%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 2–6, 2024811 (RV)± 3.4%50%45%5%775 (LV)50%45%5%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024617 (LV)± 5.0%50%44%6%RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024779 (LV)± 3.5%51%45%3%53%46%1%Public Policy Polling (D)September 25–26, 2024759 (RV)± 3.5%51%46%3%Emerson CollegeSeptember 22−24, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%51%46%3%52%47%1%ActiVoteSeptember 7−24, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%–Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 20242,716 (LV)± 2.0%50%46%4%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20242,940 (LV)± 2.0%52%43%5%Emerson CollegeSeptember 3–5, 2024845 (LV)± 3.3%50%46%4%51%48%1%YouGovAugust 23–31, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%49%44%7%ActiVoteAugust 14–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54.5%45.5%–Quantus Insights (R)August 29–30, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.1%49%42%9%52%44%4% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024725 (RV)± 3.6%49%44%6% August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionActiVoteJuly 31 – August 13, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%– August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald TrumpYouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,500 (RV)± 2.5%52%39%9%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationMay 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%46%39%15%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /undecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,434 (LV)± 2.0%54%44%−1%0%1%Cygnal (R)October 26−28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%−2%2%2%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 20241,180 (RV)± 3.3%50%40%−2%2%6%1,180 (LV)51%40%−1%1%7%UT TylerOctober 14–21, 20241,129 (RV)± 3.0%51%45%–1%2%1%956 (LV)51%46%–1%1%1%YouGovOctober 2–10, 20241,091 (LV)± 3.0%51%46%–2%1%–CWS Research (R)October 1–4, 2024533 (LV)± 4.2%48%43%–2%1%6%University of HoustonSeptember 26 – October 10, 20241,329 (LV)± 2.7%51%46%–1%0%2%Public Policy Polling (D)September 25–26, 2024759 (RV)± 3.5%49%44%0%1%–6%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationSeptember 13–18, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.9%50%44%–1%1%4%CWS Research (R)September 4–9, 2024504 (LV)± 4.4%51%41%–0%2%6%Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners (D)August 24–29, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%51%43%–2%2%2%YouGovAugust 23–31, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%49%44%–2%0%5% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /undecidedNew York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024617 (LV)± 5.0%49%42%0%0%2%2%5%Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024725 (RV)± 3.6%45%42%6%1%0%–6%University of HoustonAugust 5–16, 20241,365 (LV)± 2.7%50%45%2%–1%1%1%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /undecidedActiVoteJune 25 – July 18, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%–Manhattan InstituteJune 25–27, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%7%UT TylerJune 11–20, 20241,144 (RV)± 3.7%46%40%14%931 (LV)± 3.8%48%43%9%YouGovMay 31 – June 9, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%15%YouGovApril 12–22, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.3%48%40%12%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024743 (LV)–50%40%10%Cygnal (R)April 4–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.9%51%42%7%Marist CollegeMarch 18–21, 20241,117 (RV)± 3.8%55%44%1%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityFebruary 29 – March 3, 2024489 (RV)–50%42%8%458 (LV)51%42%7%UT TylerFebruary 18–26, 20241,167 (RV)± 3.2%46%42%12%YouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.4%48%41%11%YouGovJanuary 11–24, 20241,145 (LV)± 2.5%49%40%11%Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%49%41%10%YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%39%16%YouGovOctober 5–17, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%37%18%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationMay 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%44%42%14%CWS Research (R)April 17–21, 2023677 (LV)± 3.8%45%42%13%Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%40%13%Emerson CollegeSeptember 20–22, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022813 (LV)± 4.4%48%43%9%Blueprint Polling (D)June 8–10, 2022603 (LV)± 4.0%44%38%17%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /undecidedYouGovJune 20 – July 1, 20241,484 (LV)± 2.5%49%40%5%–2%4%Manhattan InstituteJune 25–27, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%36%7%1%0%11%UT TylerJune 11–20, 20241,144 (RV)± 3.7%46%38%12%–1%3%931 (LV)± 3.8%47%41%8%–1%3%YouGovMay 31 – June 9, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%43%34%8%2%2%11%YouGovApril 12–22, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.3%45%36%8%2%2%7%Texas LyceumApril 12–21, 2024926 (RV)± 3.2%41%31%11%1%1%15%Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationApril 5–10, 20241,600 (LV)± 2.45%46%34%9%–2%9%48%36%––3%13%Cygnal (R)April 4–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.9%46%37%8%1%2%6%UT TylerFebruary 18–26, 20241,167 (RV)± 3.2%41%37%13%6%3%–YouGovFebruary 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.4%45%36%6%3%2%8%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFebruary 1–3, 2024605 (LV)± 4.0%44%35%6%1%1%13%Emerson CollegeJanuary 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%46%36%5%1%1%11%YouGovDecember 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.8%42%34%8%3%2%12%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.