2024 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

Trump once again won Montana, this time by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state. Trump notably flipped Big Horn County (home of the Little Bighorn River and the famous battle that took place nearby it) which hadn't voted for the Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan won the county in 1980. He also flipped Blaine County, a county that has voted for the winning candidate in every U.S. presidential election since 1992.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Republican primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Green primary The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia. + Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024 Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates No Preference 495 100.00% 4Total:495100.00%4 Source:

General election Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill May 30, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 September 23, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%59%39%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 23–25, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%58%39%3%59%40%1%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 5–8, 2024656 (RV)± 4.0% 57%39%4%656 (LV)57%40%3%RMG ResearchSeptember 12–19, 2024491 (LV)± 4.4%59%38%3%Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D)August 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%56%41%3% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludesRasmussen Reports (R)August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%58%35%7% August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention beginsEmerson CollegeAugust 5–6, 20241,000 (RV) 3.0%55%40%5%58%43%–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%57%37%–2%0%4%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 5–8, 2024656 (RV)± 4.0% 56%38%–0%0%6%656 (LV)56%39%–0%0%5%Remington Research Group (R)September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%56%39%–2%–3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedMontana State University BillingsSeptember 30 – October 16, 2024760 (A)± 3.6%52%34%3%–1%2%8%Rasmussen Reports (R)August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%58%31%7%0%0%0%4%American Pulse Research & PollingAugust 10–12, 2024538 (LV)± 4.2%52%38%6%0%0%2%8%Emerson CollegeAugust 5–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%54%39%5%0%0%0%2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedRMG ResearchAugust 6–14, 2024540 (RV)± 4.2%57%39%2%2% Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedTorchlight Strategies (R)June 22–26, 2024649 (RV)± 3.9%51%35%14%Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%57%37%6%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)June 3–5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%54%36%10%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024301 (LV)–59%34%7%Emerson CollegeFebruary 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%56%35%9%SurveyUSAFebruary 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%51%29%20%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023447 (RV)± 4.6%49%28%23%Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)September 16–19, 20231,451 (RV)–54%37%9%J.L. PartnersAugust 12–17, 2023741 (LV)–51%39%10%Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022320 (LV)± 6.6%49%36%15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeFebruary 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%28%8%1%1%13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden CornelWest Other /UndecidedChange Research (D)/Future Majority (D)September 16–19, 20231,451 (RV)–51%30%7%12%49%28%4%19%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024301 (LV)–50%35%15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024301 (LV)–58%30%12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonDeSantis JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJ.L. PartnersAugust 12–17, 2023741 (LV)–50%36%14%Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022320 (LV)± 6.6%42%35%23%

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Beaverhead4,05870.04%1,54326.63%1933.33%2,51543.41%5,794Big Horn2,18848.95%2,11247.25%1703.80%761.70%4,470Blaine1,52650.55%1,34844.65%1454.80%1785.90%3,019Broadwater3,77078.38%88518.40%1553.22%2,88559.98%4,810Carbon4,71964.67%2,35332.25%2253.08%2,36632.42%7,297Carter76088.99%758.78%192.22%68580.21%854Cascade22,41959.65%14,02137.31%1,1433.04%8,39822.35%37,583Chouteau1,88564.25%94032.04%1093.72%94532.21%2,934Custer4,20872.46%1,38523.85%2143.69%2,82348.61%5,807Daniels77881.81%15416.19%192.00%62465.62%951Dawson3,62778.20%89419.28%1172.52%2,73358.93%4,638Deer Lodge2,32947.82%2,37648.79%1653.39%-47-0.97%4,870Fallon1,30386.46%16310.82%412.72%1,14075.65%1,507Fergus4,96573.97%1,52222.68%2253.35%3,44351.30%6,712Flathead41,39065.55%20,06231.77%1,6892.67%21,32833.78%63,141Gallatin32,69546.77%34,93849.98%2,2673.24%-2,243-3.21%69,900Garfield75694.50%394.88%50.63%71789.63%800Glacier1,93938.18%2,93357.76%2064.06%-994-19.57%5,078Golden Valley44085.44%6713.01%81.55%37372.43%515Granite1,53770.63%57926.61%602.76%95844.03%2,176Hill3,87156.89%2,63438.71%2994.39%1,23718.18%6,804Jefferson5,54466.85%2,51630.34%2332.81%3,02836.51%8,293Judith Basin1,05177.68%26519.59%372.73%78658.09%1,353Lake9,88058.42%6,51038.50%5213.08%3,37019.93%16,911Lewis and Clark21,47951.11%19,08545.41%1,4613.48%2,3945.70%42,025Liberty75276.11%21421.66%222.23%53854.45%988Lincoln8,90975.57%2,61522.18%2652.25%6,29453.39%11,789Madison4,61571.42%1,68926.14%1582.45%2,92645.28%6,462McCone93186.04%12911.92%222.03%80274.12%1,082Meagher88875.77%25621.84%282.39%63253.92%1,172Mineral2,04972.33%68924.32%953.35%1,36048.01%2,833Missoula27,30637.52%42,90358.95%2,5643.52%-15,597-21.43%72,773Musselshell2,55084.66%39613.15%662.19%2,15471.51%3,012Park6,12852.30%5,22444.58%3653.12%9047.72%11,717Petroleum28487.65%3711.42%30.93%24776.23%324Phillips1,75380.08%38517.59%512.33%1,36862.49%2,189Pondera1,97269.14%78227.42%983.44%1,19041.73%2,852Powder River96387.07%13111.84%121.08%83275.23%1,106Powell2,46675.14%71021.63%1063.23%1,75653.50%3,282Prairie54679.25%12217.71%213.05%42461.54%689Ravalli20,61768.94%8,48528.37%8032.69%12,13240.57%29,905Richland4,38782.63%77814.65%1442.71%3,60967.98%5,309Roosevelt2,05552.50%1,68042.92%1794.57%3759.58%3,914Rosebud2,46666.77%1,09529.65%1323.57%1,37137.12%3,693Sanders6,15076.19%1,70521.12%2172.69%4,44555.07%8,072Sheridan1,32169.09%50926.62%824.29%81242.47%1,912Silver Bow8,11044.50%9,38651.50%7304.01%-1,276-7.00%18,226Stillwater4,69979.56%1,05617.88%1512.56%3,64361.68%5,906Sweet Grass1,78975.14%52522.05%672.81%1,26453.09%2,381Teton2,53370.99%92725.98%1083.03%1,60645.01%3,568Toole1,57176.78%41520.28%602.93%1,15656.50%2,046Treasure36783.03%5712.90%184.07%31070.14%442Valley3,01974.01%93522.92%1253.06%2,08451.09%4,079Wheatland84377.62%20919.24%343.13%63458.38%1,086Wibaux46384.80%7113.00%122.20%39271.79%546Yellowstone50,46062.00%28,39234.88%2,5413.12%22,06827.11%81,393Totals352,07958.39%231,90638.46%19,0053.15%120,17319.93%602,990

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Big Horn (largest city: Hardin) Blaine (largest city: Chinook)

By congressional district Trump won both congressional districts. District Trump Harris Representative 54.22% 42.66%Ryan Zinke63.18%33.64%Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)Troy Downing (119th Congress)

Analysis Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana – a sparsely populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains – has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump gained nearly everywhere in the state but especially in counties with high Native American populations, such as Big Horn County, Glacier County, and Blaine County; he was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Big Horn since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.6% margin of victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

See also United States presidential elections in Montana 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References