2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census, in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Donald Trump ran under the Republican banner a third consecutive time. Despite not carrying Nevada in either of his past two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed him in a strong position to win the state against Joe Biden. Trump led Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. Nevada also elected a Republican governor in 2022. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, had polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state was rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.

Despite more competitive polling after Harris entered the race, Trump won Nevada, defeating Harris by 3.10% and becoming the first Republican to win the state since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's gains with Latino and Filipino voters were crucial to him flipping the state, and his 751,205 votes set a new record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

Nevada was the only state that voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024, and the only state that voted differently from 2016 to 2024 (though Nebraska's second congressional district, with one electoral vote, voted for Trump in 2016 and for Harris in 2024). Never before in American history have two presidential elections differed by only a single state, with the closest previous instance coming between 1884 and 1888, when only New York and Indiana changed their vote, and more recently between 2008 and 2012, when only North Carolina and again Indiana changed their vote, along with Nebraska’s second congressional district. Trump is also the only US president to win the White House without Nevada and then carry it upon winning re-election.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Republican nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.

General election Voting law changes By 2022, every voter received a mail-in ballot unless they opted out, and eligible voters were automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 4, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 4, 2024 CNN November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 The Economist November 4, 2024 538 November 4, 2024 Inside Elections November 3, 2024 NBC News November 4, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump Other /UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.6%48.2%4.2%Trump +0.6%538538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.4%47.7%4.8%Trump +0.3%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.9%48.5%3.6%Trump +0.6%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.5%49.2%3.3%Trump +1.7%Average47.6%48.3%4.1%Trump +0.7%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedHarrisXNovember 3–5, 20241,260 (RV)± 2.8%47%46%7%51.6%48.5%–1,125 (LV)48%48%4%50.5%49.5%–AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024707 (LV)± 4.0%47%50%3%47%50%3%Patriot PollingNovember 1–3, 2024792 (RV)± 3.0%49%50%1%AtlasIntelNovember 1–2, 2024782 (LV)± 4.0%46%52%2%46%51%3%Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024840 (LV)± 3.3%48%48%4%49%49%1%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 24 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%48%46%6%1,010 (LV)49%46%5%AtlasIntelOctober 30–31, 2024845 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%2%47%51%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 29–31, 2024700 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%5%49%48%3%Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 28–31, 2024593 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%3%Susquehanna Polling & ResearchOctober 28–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%44%50%6%YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024790 (RV)± 4.6%50%49%1%773 (LV)50%49%1%Data for Progress (D)October 25–30, 2024721 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%4%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 25–30, 2024767 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%AtlasIntelOctober 25–29, 20241,083 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%48%48%4%Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%48%48%4%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 2024940 (A)–53%44%3%933 (LV)51%47%2%InsiderAdvantage (R)October 20–21, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultOctober 16–20, 2024449 (RV)± 5.0%49%48%3%420 (LV)49%48%3%AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,171 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%4%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)October 8−15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%4%Morning ConsultOctober 6−15, 2024496 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%6%Revere Solutions/ProvidenceOctober 22–23, 2024538 (LV)± 4.0%46.8%50.6%2.6%The Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 30 – October 15, 2024652 (RV)± 4.8%47%44%9%652 (LV)48%48%4%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 9–14, 2024748 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%Trafalgar Group (R)October 10–13, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%9%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)October 6–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%3%Emerson CollegeOctober 5–8, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%48%47%5%49%48%3%The Wall Street JournalSeptember 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%43%49%8%RMG ResearchSeptember 30 – October 3, 2024782 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%4%49%49%2%OnMessage Inc. (R)September 24 – October 2, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%47%8%InsiderAdvantage (R)September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%1%Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)September 23–29, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%48%47%5%TIPP InsightsSeptember 23−25, 20241,044 (RV)± 3.7%48%44%8%736 (LV)49%48%3%Quantus Insights (R)September 23−25, 2024628 (LV)± 4.0%48%49%3%AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024858 (LV)± 3.0%51%48%1%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–48%47%5%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultSeptember 19–25, 2024574 (RV)± 4.0%49%45%6%516 (LV)52%45%3%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19−22, 2024738 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%Remington Research Group (R)September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%49%3%The Tarrance Group (R)September 16–19, 2024600 (LV)± 4.1%47%44%9%Emerson CollegeSeptember 15–18, 2024895 (LV)± 3.2%48%48%4%49%49%2%Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 2024474 (LV)± 5.0%51%47%2%Noble Predictive InsightsSeptember 9−16, 2024812 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%7%692 (LV)± 3.7%48%47%5%Trafalgar Group (R)September 11–13, 20241,079 (LV)± 2.9%45%44%11%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024516 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%Patriot PollingSeptember 1–3, 2024788 (RV)–47%47%6%InsiderAdvantage (R)August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%5%Emerson CollegeAugust 25–28, 20241,168 (LV)± 2.8%49%48%3%49%49%1%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultAugust 23–26, 2024416 (LV)± 5.0%50%46%4%450 (RV)49%45%6%Fox NewsAugust 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%50%48%2% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionRasmussen Reports (R)August 13–18, 2024980 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%FocaldataAugust 6–16, 2024678 (LV)± 3.8%54%46%–The New York Times/Siena CollegeAugust 12–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%46%48%6%677 (LV)47%48%5%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)July 26 – August 8, 2024403 (LV)–45%48%7% August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.Public Opinion Strategies (R)July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%45%46%9%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultJuly 24–28, 2024454 (RV)± 5.0%47%45%7% July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. July 18, 2024 Republican National Convention concludesInsiderAdvantage (R)July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%40%50%10% July 15, 2024 Republican National Convention begins July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald TrumpBloomberg/Morning ConsultMay 7–13, 2024459 (RV)± 5.0%44%47%9%Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%39%48%13%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%42%48%10%611 (LV)42%50%8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamala HarrisDonaldTrumpJillSteinCornelWestChaseOliver Other/UndecidedMarginRace to the WHRace to the WHthrough November 2, 2024November 3, 202447.9%47.3%1.2%3.6%Harris +0.6%270toWin270toWinOctober 22 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.8%47.4%0.0%0.0%1.0%3.8%Harris +0.4%Average47.9%47.4%0.0%0.0%1.1%3.7%Harris +0.5%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedHarrisXNovember 3–5, 20241,260 (RV)± 2.8%46%45%2%1%–6%50%46%3%1%––1,125 (LV)48%47%2%1%–2%49%48%2%1%––The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 24 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%47%44%––3%6%1,010 (LV)48%46%––2%4%FocaldataOctober 3 – November 1, 20241,324 (LV)–48%47%–0%1%4%1,197 (RV)± 2.7%49%45%–0%2%4%1,324 (A)–48%44%–0%2%1%Noble Predictive InsightsOctober 28–31, 2024593 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%––0%3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 28–31, 2024690 (LV)–47%48%–0%1%4%YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024790 (RV)± 4.6%48%47%0%0%–5%773 (LV)48%47%0%0%–5%Data for Progress (D)October 25–30, 2024721 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%––1%3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 25–27, 2024531 (LV)–47%47%––1%6%CNN/SSRSOctober 21–26, 2024683 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%––1%4%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 20–22, 2024540 (LV)–46%47%–0%0%7%OnMessage Inc. (R)October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%50%––0%3%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultOctober 16–20, 2024449 (RV)± 5.0%48%47%–0%2%3%420 (LV)48%48%–0%1%3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 16–18, 2024529 (LV)–46%47%–1%1%5%AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,171 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%–2%0%2%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)October 8−15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%47%––1%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 2024838 (LV)–47%47%–0%1%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 2024514 (LV)–48%47%–1%1%3%TIPP InsightsSeptember 23−25, 20241,044 (RV)± 3.7%48%43%1%0%−9%736 (LV)50%49%0%0%−1%AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024858 (LV)± 3.0%51%48%–1%––Bloomberg/Morning ConsultSeptember 19–25, 2024574 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%–3%4%3%516 (LV)50%44%–2%2%2%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 16–19, 2024652 (LV)–45%45%–0%1%9%Noble Predictive InsightsSeptember 9−16, 2024812 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%–0%1%10%692 (LV)± 3.7%47%47%–0%1%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024698 (LV)–45%46%–1%1%7%YouGovAugust 23 – September 3, 2024800 (RV)± 4.7%49%46%0%1%–4%CNN/SSRSAugust 23–29, 2024976 (LV)± 4.4%48%47%–1%1%3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 25–28, 2024490 (LV)–47%47%–1%0%5%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultAugust 23–26, 2024416 (LV)± 5.0%48%46%–2%3%1%450 (RV)48%45%–2%4%1%Fox NewsAugust 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%48%46%2%1%1%2% Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver