2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.

Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district, making it the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In recent years, the district has leaned Democratic. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5.9%, despite the state voting Republican by a landslide margin.

Trump improved his margin statewide but lost the 2nd district again. This is the first time the 2nd district voted for a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote and the presidential election. Barack Obama in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 both failed to carry the district, even as both won the popular vote. The 2nd district was the only electoral vote Trump won in 2016 that he did not win in 2024. While redistricting between the 2020 and 2024 elections had made the district more Republican-leaning, Kamala Harris carried it by 4.6%.

Nebraska had one of the smallest swings of any state, swinging by just 1.3% from 2020 to 2024. Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in the state.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024. President Biden won twenty-eight delegates. Congressman Dean Phillips won one delegate by receiving the most votes of any candidate in Logan County, with 55.6% of the vote.

Republican primary

The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.

Libertarian primary

The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.

+ Nebraska Libertarian primary, May 14, 2024 Candidate Votes Percentage Chase Oliver 309 27.6% Charles Ballay 237 21.2% Jacob Hornberger20418.2% Lars Mapstead 180 16.1% Michael Rectenwald 120 10.7% Mike ter Maat 69 6.2% Total: 1,119 100.0% Source:

General election Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska:

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Cornel West, Independent In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.

Proposal to change to electoral vote system In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but no other swing states, the second district could give Biden the decisive 270th electoral vote. While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for cloture on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all."

Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 49 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans.

After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change. Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a modification in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote. McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters. The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session.

Predictions Source1st district2nd district3rd districtStatewideAs of Cook Political Report November 1, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 CNN October 1, 2024 The Economist October 3, 2024538 September 13, 2024 Inside Elections August 29, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Statewide Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedChange Research (D)October 30–31, 2024600 (LV)± 4.3% 57%39%4%Torchlight Strategies (R)October 25–28, 2024605 (LV)± 3.9%56%39%5%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 20241,194 (RV)± 3.2% 55%40%5%1,194 (LV)55%40%5%Change Research (D)October 18–21, 2024815 (LV)–55%41%4%Torchlight Strategies (R)October 5–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.9%57%37%6%Change Research (D)October 3–8, 2024895 (LV)± 3.5%58%38%4%Impact Research (D)October 1–3, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%58%38%4%The Bullfinch GroupSeptember 27 – October 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%42%5%48%38%14%SurveyUSASeptember 20–23, 2024558 (LV)± 4.8%56%40%5%Global Strategy Group (D)August 26–29, 2024600 (LV)–54%37%9%SurveyUSAAugust 23–27, 20241,293 (RV)± 3.5%54%37%9%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedThe Economist/YouGovOctober 21–28, 20241,206 (LV)± 3.5% 55%40%0%0%1%4%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 20241,194 (RV)± 3.2% 53%38%0%0%1%8%1,194 (LV)53%39%0%0%1%7%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedTorchlight Strategies (R)July 8–11, 2024698 (LV)± 3.7%52%33%15%Public Policy Polling (D)April 24–25, 2024737 (V)± 3.6%57%34%9%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024307 (LV)–50%39%11%Change Research (D)November 13–16, 20231,048 (LV)–53%35%12%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023423 (RV)± 4.7%47%31%23%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024307 (LV)–47%39%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024307 (LV)–50%38%12%

1st congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedThe Economist/YouGovOctober 21–28, 2024408 (LV)–51%43%0%0%3%3%

2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedNew York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 2024500 (LV)± 4.8% 54%42%4%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 24–26, 2024680 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%7%680 (LV)52%43%5%SurveyUSAAugust 23–27, 2024507 (RV)± 5.6%47%42%11%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedThe Economist/YouGovOctober 21–28, 2024393 (LV)–52%44%0%1%1%2%New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 23−26, 2024500 (LV)± 4.8% 53%41%0%0%1%5%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 24–26, 2024680 (RV)± 4.0%49%41%–2%2%6%680 (LV)51%42%–2%1%4%CNN/SSRSSeptember 20–25, 2024794 (LV)± 4.0%53%42%1%1%1%2%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. ChaseOliver CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedRemington Research Group (R)August 14–17, 2024656 (LV)± 3.8%50%42%2%1%1%0%4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedChange Research (D)August 10–17, 2024437 (LV)–47%42%5%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedTorchlight Strategies (R)July 8–11, 2024300 (LV)–42%42%16%Public Policy Polling (D)April 24–25, 2024––43%46%11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)April 24–25, 2024––34%37%9%4%4%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedIron Light IntelligenceMay 17–22, 2024400 (LV)± 5.0%42%37%13%8%

3rd congressional district

Results

By county

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

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