2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. This decision was seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues were expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, and potentially secure the state for the Democratic ticket.

Harris won the state by 4.24 points, marking the thirteenth consecutive Democratic presidential win in Minnesota, the longest active such streak of any U.S. state. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Minnesota a state Harris would win, or otherwise a lean to likely blue state.

Although Harris won the state, the state still shifted rightward by 3% despite it being Walz's home state. Nearly all counties in the state shifted rightward, with the exceptions of Cook, Lake and Lincoln counties, which recorded minor shifts to the left. This was part of all 50 states and D.C. shifting rightward in this election, also including Harris’ home state of California. By contrast, Trump improved in his running mate's home state of Ohio and massively improved in his home state of Florida.

Republican nominee Donald Trump was able to flip four counties that Joe Biden had won four years prior: Carlton, Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona. This was the first presidential election since 1928 in which Carlton County voted Republican.

Primary elections Republican primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Democratic primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Legal Marijuana Now primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. + Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary, March 5, 2024 Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates Krystal Gabel (withdrawn) 759 28.84% – Dennis Schuller 459 17.44% 7 Vermin Supreme 397 15.08% 6 Rudy Reyes 365 13.87% 5 Edward Forchion 168 6.38% 2 Willie Nelson (write-in) 19 0.72% 0 Other write-ins 465 17.67% –Total:2,632100.00% 20 Source:

General election Candidates

The following presidential candidates received ballot access in Minnesota:

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation Cornel West, Independent Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report August 27, 2024 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball August 6, 2024 The Economist August 23, 2024 CNalysis August 6, 2024 CNN August 25, 2024538 August 23, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.8%43.6%6.6%Harris +6.2%538538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.0%44.2%5.8%Harris +5.8%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202450.4%43.9%5.7%Harris +6.5%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.9%45.5%4.6%Harris +4.4%Average50.0%44.3%5.7%Harris +5.7%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,065 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%4%Research Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%51%44%5%ActiVoteOctober 9 – November 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48%–SurveyUSAOctober 24–28, 2024728 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%5%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 24–26, 2024959 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%3%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20241,278 (A)–52%44%4%1,275 (LV)53%43%4%Embold Research/MinnPostOctober 16–22, 20241,734 (LV)± 2.4%48%45%7%ActiVoteSeptember 10 – October 9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%–SurveyUSASeptember 23–26, 2024646 (LV)± 4.3%50%44%6%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19–22, 2024993 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%5%Mason-DixonSeptember 16–18, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%9%Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 2024517 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%7%Embold Research/MinnPostSeptember 4–8, 20241,616 (LV)± 2.8%49%45%6%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024501 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%5%SurveyUSAAugust 27–29, 2024635 (LV)± 4.5%48%43%9% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National ConventionSurveyUSAJuly 23–25, 2024656 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%10%Fox NewsJuly 22–24, 20241,071 (RV)± 3.0%52%46%2%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedAtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20242,065 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%–2%1%1%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 2024544 (LV)–51%43%–1%0%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 2024551 (LV)–51%43%–0%1%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 16–19, 2024703 (LV)–50%44%–1%0%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 2024617 (LV)–51%44%–0%0%5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedChism StrategiesOctober 28–30, 2024534 (LV)± 4.2%48%43%1%–1%0%7%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 12–15, 2024592 (LV)–47%40%3%–0%0%10%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 31 – August 3, 2024538 (LV)–46%41%3%–0%0%10%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 22–24, 2024475 (LV)–44%41%6%–1%0%8%Fox NewsJuly 22–24, 20241,071 (RV)± 3.0%47%41%7%1%1%–3%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJune 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%45%10%1,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%49%–SurveyUSAJune 12–16, 2024626 (LV)± 4.3%47%41%12%McLaughlin & Associates (R)June 9–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%8%SurveyUSAMay 8–11, 2024625 (LV)± 4.3%44%42%14%McLaughlin & Associates (R)April 29 – May 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%49%5%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024417 (LV)–46%44%10%SurveyUSAApril 3–7, 2024608 (LV)± 4.9%44%42%14%SurveyUSAFebruary 23–28, 20241,603 (LV)± 2.8%42%38%20%SurveyUSAJanuary 24–29, 20241,594 (LV)± 2.8%42%39%19%Big Data Poll (R)November 18–23, 2023854 (RV)± 3.4%37%38%25%784 (LV)39%39%22%Embold Research/MinnPostNovember 14–17, 20231,519 (LV)± 2.6%45%42%13%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023477 (LV)± 4.4%40%38%22%Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 6–8, 2023500 (LV)–48%40%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedEmerson CollegeJune 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%6%1%1%9%McLaughlin & Associates (R)June 9–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%41%7%2%2%11%McLaughlin & Associates (R)April 29 – May 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%40%40%9%1%1%9%Big Data Poll (R)November 18–23, 2023854 (RV)± 3.4%35%36%8%2%2%17%784 (LV)37%37%9%2%2%13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedMason-DixonJune 3–5, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%45%41%6%9%Big Data Poll (R)November 18–23, 2023854 (RV)± 3.4%35%35%9%21%784 (LV)38%36%9%17%

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024417 (LV)–40%46%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024417 (LV)–47%36%17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GretchenWhitmer DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedFox NewsJuly 22–24, 20241,071 (RV)± 3.0%49%46%5%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoshShapiro DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedFox NewsJuly 22–24, 20241,071 (RV)± 3.0%49%45%6%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden RonDeSantis Other /UndecidedPublic Opinion Strategies (R)May 6–8, 2023500 (LV)–45%43%12%

Results

By county