2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Kentucky a safe red state; the state has voted Republican and by double-digit margins in every presidential election since 2000.

On election night, Kentucky voted Republican for former president Donald Trump by a wide margin for the third time in a row, with him winning the state by 30.53%, making it the biggest margin of victory for a Republican in the state's history, surpassing the record he set in 2016. He received about 1.34 million Kentucky votes, a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

This is the best share of the vote by a Republican presidential candidate in the state's history, surpassing Richard Nixon's 1972 performance. Trump's vote share of 64.4% is also the third-highest in state history, behind only 1864 and 1868.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

Republican primary

The Kentucky Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

General election Candidates The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot: Donald Trump — Republican Kamala Harris — Democratic Jill Stein — Kentucky Party (national Green nominee) Shiva Ayyadurai — Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Independent Chase Oliver — Libertarian Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 June 11, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–60%35%5%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–3, 2023450 (RV)± 4.6%55%26%19%Public Policy Polling (D)August 9–10, 2023737 (V)–55%34%11%co/efficient (R)May 18–19, 2023987 (LV)± 3.1%57%33%10%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–52%35%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024402 (LV)–61%29%10%

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adair7,64385.17%1,25714.01%740.82%6,38671.16%8,974Allen7,82483.07%1,50515.98%890.95%6,31967.09%9,418Anderson9,65073.69%3,22624.64%2191.67%6,42449.05%13,095Ballard3,33181.48%69717.05%601.47%2,63464.43%4,088Barren15,01975.85%4,56523.05%2181.10%10,45452.80%19,802Bath4,04174.99%1,27823.71%701.30%2,76351.28%5,389Bell7,83183.84%1,41915.19%900.97%6,41268.65%9,340Boone45,65067.71%20,60130.56%1,1701.73%25,04937.15%67,421Bourbon6,28465.89%3,08832.38%1651.73%3,19633.51%9,537Boyd14,36368.56%6,29130.03%2971.41%8,07238.53%20,951Boyle9,15963.72%4,99034.72%2241.56%4,16929.00%14,373Bracken3,39981.84%70216.90%521.26%2,69764.94%4,153Breathitt4,03678.86%1,00219.58%801.56%3,03459.28%5,118Breckinridge7,88278.44%2,03820.28%1281.28%5,84458.16%10,048Bullitt32,29974.75%10,28023.79%6301.46%22,01950.96%43,209Butler4,90582.53%96516.24%731.23%3,94066.29%5,943Caldwell4,86078.54%1,25620.30%721.16%3,60458.24%6,188Calloway11,53968.10%5,11130.16%2951.74%6,42837.94%16,945Campbell28,45058.86%18,95239.21%9321.93%9,49819.65%48,334Carlisle2,18283.60%40815.63%200.77%1,77467.97%2,610Carroll3,01474.88%96323.93%481.19%2,05150.95%4,025Carter8,98178.63%2,30520.18%1361.19%6,67658.45%11,422Casey6,21687.80%80411.36%600.84%5,41276.44%7,080Christian14,33266.13%7,05532.56%2841.31%7,27733.57%21,671Clark11,95066.82%5,63931.53%2961.65%6,31135.29%17,885Clay6,72989.41%6929.19%1051.40%6,03780.22%7,526Clinton4,27687.43%54911.22%661.35%3,72776.21%4,891Crittenden3,34983.52%60815.16%531.32%2,74168.36%4,010Cumberland2,92284.89%48314.03%371.08%2,43970.86%3,442Daviess30,70565.20%15,67333.28%7191.52%15,03231.92%47,097Edmonson5,04880.81%1,11817.90%811.29%3,93062.91%6,247Elliott2,33580.13%53218.26%471.61%1,80361.87%2,914Estill5,09180.94%1,11417.71%851.35%3,97763.23%6,290Fayette57,34739.84%83,38757.93%3,2012.22%-26,040-18.09%143,935Fleming5,57879.69%1,33419.06%881.25%4,24460.63%7,000Floyd12,32678.64%3,06119.53%2861.83%9,26559.11%15,673Franklin13,24651.41%11,99646.56%5212.03%1,2504.85%25,763Fulton1,49169.51%63629.65%180.84%85539.86%2,145Gallatin3,10979.37%76119.43%471.20%2,34859.94%3,917Garrard7,08679.47%1,71919.28%1121.25%5,36760.19%8,917Grant9,37281.72%1,94416.95%1531.33%7,42864.77%11,469Graves13,37880.21%3,10518.62%1951.17%10,27361.59%16,678Grayson9,71080.28%2,23518.48%1501.24%7,47561.80%12,095Green5,03385.93%78213.35%420.72%4,25172.58%5,857Greenup12,96174.60%4,18124.06%2321.34%8,78050.54%17,374Hancock3,37572.85%1,17325.32%851.83%2,20247.53%4,633Hardin30,67263.79%16,57234.47%8381.74%14,10029.32%48,082Harlan9,10987.69%1,19911.54%800.77%7,91076.15%10,388Harrison6,63973.62%2,26525.12%1141.26%4,37448.50%9,018Hart6,69179.57%1,64219.53%760.90%5,04960.04%8,409Henderson12,59263.96%6,83734.73%2591.31%5,75529.23%19,688Henry6,09375.46%1,85723.00%1241.54%4,23652.46%8,074Hickman1,65680.04%39419.04%190.92%1,26261.00%2,069Hopkins15,36174.80%4,91623.94%2601.27%10,44550.86%20,537Jackson5,35890.14%5068.51%801.35%4,85281.63%5,944Jefferson144,55340.64%203,07057.09%8,0992.27%-58,517-16.45%355,722Jessamine17,85466.91%8,30331.11%5281.98%9,55135.80%26,685Johnson8,15084.57%1,35014.01%1371.42%6,80070.56%9,637Kenton48,44459.63%30,85937.98%1,9382.39%17,58521.65%81,241Knott4,73278.67%1,18119.63%1021.70%3,55159.04%6,015Knox11,17884.82%1,82113.82%1801.36%9,35771.00%13,179LaRue5,77379.53%1,38919.13%971.34%4,38460.40%7,259Laurel23,51684.17%4,03714.45%3851.38%19,47969.72%27,938Lawrence5,46483.12%1,04415.88%661.00%4,42067.24%6,574Lee2,22782.63%40615.06%622.31%1,82167.57%2,695Leslie3,90889.67%3828.77%681.56%3,52680.90%4,358Letcher6,84881.22%1,45717.28%1261.49%5,39163.94%8,431Lewis4,99787.34%66611.64%581.02%4,33175.70%5,721Lincoln8,83380.05%2,08018.85%1211.10%6,75361.20%11,034Livingston4,02180.87%88617.82%651.31%3,13563.05%4,972Logan9,62076.89%2,73421.85%1571.26%6,88655.04%12,511Lyon3,18776.12%95022.69%501.19%2,23753.43%4,187McCracken21,34966.83%10,19131.90%4071.27%11,15834.93%31,947McCreary5,53189.04%64110.32%400.64%4,89078.72%6,212McLean3,57877.21%98921.34%671.45%2,58955.87%4,634Madison29,13064.26%15,18033.49%1,0192.25%13,95030.77%45,329Magoffin4,28881.18%90917.21%851.61%3,37963.97%5,282Marion6,47371.12%2,51327.61%1161.27%3,96043.51%9,102Marshall13,67777.70%3,70021.02%2251.28%9,97756.68%17,602Martin3,34391.39%2877.85%280.76%3,05683.54%3,658Mason5,62171.14%2,17027.46%1101.40%3,45143.68%7,901Meade10,63075.27%3,27923.22%2141.51%7,35152.05%14,123Menifee2,56377.67%66420.12%732.21%1,89957.55%3,300Mercer8,82674.47%2,83823.95%1871.58%5,98850.52%11,851Metcalfe4,19781.86%88417.24%460.90%3,31364.62%5,127Monroe4,67988.15%57610.85%531.00%4,10377.30%5,308Montgomery9,30272.55%3,32925.97%1901.48%5,97346.58%12,821Morgan4,35380.94%93917.46%861.60%3,41463.48%5,378Muhlenberg10,49176.62%3,04822.26%1531.12%7,44354.36%13,692Nelson16,05270.24%6,51528.51%2851.25%9,53741.73%22,852Nicholas2,45173.85%82424.83%441.32%1,62749.02%3,319Ohio8,67979.35%2,09419.15%1641.50%6,58560.20%10,937Oldham23,02560.26%14,40237.69%7832.05%8,62322.57%38,210Owen4,43480.62%98817.96%781.42%3,44662.66%5,500Owsley1,62588.36%20311.04%110.60%1,42277.32%1,839Pendleton5,59381.06%1,21017.54%971.40%4,38363.52%6,900Perry7,91379.19%1,96619.68%1131.13%5,94759.51%9,992Pike19,68482.19%4,02516.81%2411.00%15,65965.38%23,950Powell4,09276.22%1,17421.87%1031.91%2,91854.35%5,369Pulaski26,05182.09%5,35116.86%3331.05%20,70065.23%31,735Robertson91579.98%21518.79%141.23%70061.19%1,144Rockcastle6,63585.76%98612.74%1161.50%5,64973.02%7,737Rowan6,22463.04%3,48435.29%1651.67%2,74027.75%9,873Russell7,62285.71%1,20013.49%710.80%6,42272.22%8,893Scott18,74762.97%10,50135.27%5211.76%8,24627.70%29,769Shelby16,35666.43%7,82231.77%4421.80%8,53434.66%24,620Simpson6,25371.25%2,40327.38%1201.37%3,85043.87%8,776Spencer8,92777.76%2,41521.04%1381.20%6,51256.72%11,480Taylor9,52377.67%2,57621.01%1621.32%6,94756.66%12,261Todd4,00978.42%1,05120.56%521.02%2,95857.86%5,112Trigg5,43675.54%1,66723.17%931.29%3,76952.37%7,196Trimble3,28377.27%92321.72%431.01%2,36055.55%4,249Union4,75878.54%1,22520.22%751.24%3,53358.32%6,058Warren34,86261.28%21,06537.03%9641.69%13,79724.25%56,891Washington4,72074.44%1,53324.18%881.38%3,18750.26%6,341Wayne7,20382.48%1,44416.53%860.99%5,75965.95%8,733Webster4,33978.10%1,15320.75%641.15%3,18657.35%5,556Whitley12,68784.16%2,23714.84%1511.00%10,45069.32%15,075Wolfe2,16374.10%68923.60%672.30%1,47450.50%2,919Woodford8,41956.15%6,28241.90%2921.95%2,13714.25%14,993Totals1,337,49464.47%704,04333.94%32,9931.59%633,45130.53%2,074,530

By congressional district Trump won five of six congressional districts.

District Trump Harris Representative 72.99% 25.71%James Comer 69.92% 28.61%Brett Guthrie 39.62% 58.53%Morgan McGarvey 66.91% 31.37%Thomas Massie 81.33% 17.45%Hal Rogers 56.54% 41.52%Andy Barr

Analysis A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000, marking a record for the party. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Kentucky handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 633,451 votes. This election marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Kentuckian vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.

Trump notably expanded his support in Kentucky's Cumberland Plateau region, the Frankfort micropolitan area, and Warren County, home to Bowling Green.

In Elliott County, Trump received 80% of the vote, the highest vote share in its history. In 2004, Elliott County had given Democratic nominee John Kerry 70% of the vote, despite Kerry and Harris winning 48.3% of the national popular vote. Trump is the first Republican to have ever won Elliott County in presidential elections.

In Warren County, Trump received 61.3% of the vote, marking the strongest Republican performance in a presidential election since George W. Bush in 2004. Additionally, Trump regained some ground in the Democratic strongholds of Jefferson and Fayette counties.

See also United States presidential elections in Kentucky 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References