2024 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This election coincided with five referendum questions including a referendum to change the state flag, as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for the state's two congressional districts and various other state, county and local elections. The state uses ranked-choice voting.

Most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election. Indeed, Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton, and with the largest raw vote total of any presidential candidate in the state's history. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district, both with majorities of the vote.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Attempted disqualification of Trump Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary. On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, and the appeal was dismissed on January 24.Donald J. Trump v. Secretary of State et al., 2024 ME 5 On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson601 U.S. 100 (2024) that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not. The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.

General election Predictions Source1st district2nd districtStatewideAs of The Economist September 5, 2024 Cook Political Report August 27, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024538 July 15, 2024 CNN January 14, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov November 1, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Statewide Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024951 (LV)± 3.2%58%41%1%University of New HampshireJuly 23–25, 20241,445 (LV)± 2.6%54%45%1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireOctober 29 – November 2, 20241,485 (LV)± 2.4%52%41%1%1%1%4%SurveyUSAOctober 24–29, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.6%51%43%1%1%1%3%Pan Atlantic ResearchSeptember 5–15, 2024812 (LV)± 3.5%50%41%1%1%1%6% Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024951 (LV)± 3.2%55%38%2%0%1%1%3%University of New HampshireJuly 23–25, 20241,445 (LV)± 2.6%48%40%4%1%1%1%5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–45%46%9%Pan Atlantic ResearchFebruary 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%32%38%30%Digital ResearchOctober 3 – November 2, 2023614 (RV)± 3.9%36%35%29%Emerson CollegeSeptember 19–20, 20221,164 (LV)± 2.8%51%40%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RCVcount JoeBiden DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein Other /UndecidedDigital ResearchApril 8–30, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%140%41%10%1%6%2%241%41%11%1%6%Elim341%42%11%Elim6%Elim442%43%15%ElimElimElim551%49%ElimElimElimElim

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden Robert F.Kennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–35%53%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Robert F.Kennedy Jr. DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–43%37%20%

Maine's 1st congressional district Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedPan Atlantic ResearchSeptember 5–15, 2024414 (LV)–58%32%10%University of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024476 (LV)–64%36%–

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024476 (LV)–62%33%2%0%0%1%2%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeBiden DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedPan Atlantic ResearchFebruary 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%39%31%31%Digital ResearchOctober 3 – November 2, 2023307 (RV)–43%27%30%

Maine's 2nd congressional district Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedAxis ResearchOctober 17–20, 2024411 (LV)± 4.8%50%41%8%Pan Atlantic ResearchSeptember 5–15, 2024398 (LV)–49%42%9%University of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024432 (LV)–47%52%1%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireOctober 29 – November 2, 2024683 (LV)± 3.7%48%44%1%1%1%5%SurveyUSAOctober 24–29, 2024484 (LV)–49%44%1%1%1%4% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedUniversity of New HampshireAugust 15–19, 2024432 (LV)–44%49%2%0%1%1%3%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /UndecidedPan Atlantic ResearchFebruary 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%45%25%30%Digital ResearchOctober 3 – November 2, 2023307 (RV)–42%28%30%

Results

By county County Kamala HarrisDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total # % # % # % # %Androscoggin 27,019 45.91% 30,605 52.01% 1,223 2.08% -3,586 -6.10% 58,847Aroostook 12,900 36.18% 22,246 62.40% 507 1.42% -9,346 -26.22% 35,653Cumberland 127,971 66.42% 59,964 31.12% 4,721 2.46% 68,007 35.30% 192,656Franklin 7,990 44.80% 9,459 53.03% 387 2.17% -1,469 -8.23% 17,836Hancock 19,817 54.66% 15,551 42.90% 885 2.44% 4,266 11.76% 36,253Kennebec 34,585 47.45% 36,589 50.20% 1,712 2.35% -2,004 -2.75% 72,886Knox 15,076 58.22% 10,262 39.63% 555 2.15% 4,814 18.59% 25,893Lincoln 13,110 54.62% 10,409 43.37% 484 2.01% 2,701 11.25% 24,003Oxford 14,765 42.69% 19,228 55.59% 597 1.72% -4,463 -12.90% 34,590Penobscot 37,945 43.58% 47,438 54.48% 1,690 1.94% -9,493 -10.90% 87,073Piscataquis 3,510 34.39% 6,487 63.57% 208 2.04% -2,977 -29.18% 10,205Sagadahoc 13,982 57.17% 9,917 40.55% 557 2.28% 4,065 16.62% 24,456Somerset 10,134 35.63% 17,826 62.68% 481 1.69% -7,692 -27.05% 28,441Waldo 12,661 50.38% 11,815 47.02% 654 2.60% 846 3.36% 25,130Washington 6,763 37.48% 11,001 60.96% 282 1.56% -4,238 -23.48% 18,046York 71,813 54.22% 58,054 43.83% 2,585 1.95% 13,759 10.39% 132,452Totals430,34252.17%376,99145.71%17,4732.12%53,3516.47%824,806 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Kennebec (largest municipality: Augusta)

By congressional district Harris won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.

District Harris Trump Other Representative # % # % # % 258,863 59.69% 165,214 38.09% 9,632 2.22%Chellie Pingree 176,789 44.46% 212,763 53.50% 8,114 2.04%Jared Golden

Analysis A sparsely populated state in New England, Maine is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be moderately blue. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately to strongly red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020.

Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020, Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election.

Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton, and with the largest raw vote total of any presidential candidate in the state's history. Maine was the only state where Harris received the most raw votes out of any candidate in the state's history. Maine was one of only six states where Harris received more raw votes than Biden in 2020, and the only one of these six that she won. Maine also had one of the smallest swings, swinging rightward by just 2%.

As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district. Despite losing the state, Trump received the highest percentage of the total vote for a Republican since George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

2024 United States presidential election in Maine

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