2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64-point margin, which marks the eighth consecutive presidential election cycle in which Republicans have increased their presidential margins in Arkansas. Trump's margin of victory in the state was the highest since 1972.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of Cook Political Report December 19, 2023 Inside Elections April 26, 2023 Sabato's Crystal Ball June 29, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill December 14, 2023 CNalysis December 30, 2023 CNN January 14, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 June 11, 2024RCP June 26, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024

Polling Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump KamalaHarris Robert F.Kennedy Jr. CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedHendrix CollegeSeptember 5–6, 2024696 (RV)± 4.6 points55%40%1%–0%1%1% Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump JoeBiden Other /Undecided July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024385 (LV)–48%42%10%Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023435 (RV)± 4.7%57%24%19%Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022600 (LV)± 7.7%58%33%9%

Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Donald J.Trump RobertKennedy Jr. Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024385 (LV)–44%42%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RobertKennedy Jr. JoeBiden Other /UndecidedJohn Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024385 (LV)–53%35%12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonDeSantis JoeBiden Other /UndecidedEchelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022600 (LV)± 7.7%49%31%20%

Results

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanKamala HarrisDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Arkansas3,95171.23%1,50327.10%931.68%2,44844.13%5,547Ashley5,14573.19%1,77425.23%1111.58%3,37147.96%7,030Baxter16,25377.57%4,34120.72%3601.72%11,91256.85%20,954Benton79,90762.14%45,23135.17%3,4572.69%34,67626.97%128,595Boone13,96881.63%2,85416.68%2901.69%11,11464.95%17,112Bradley2,21368.96%96129.95%351.09%1,25239.01%3,209Calhoun1,67480.02%37918.12%391.86%1,29561.90%2,092Carroll7,47064.74%3,81233.04%2562.22%3,65831.70%11,538Chicot1,65847.51%1,79651.46%361.03%-138-3.95%3,490Clark4,52659.11%2,95938.64%1722.25%1,56720.47%7,657Clay3,96879.89%90718.26%921.85%3,06161.63%4,967Cleburne10,59583.17%1,94115.24%2031.59%8,65467.93%12,739Cleveland2,80483.11%52415.53%461.36%2,28067.58%3,374Columbia5,36767.59%2,46631.06%1071.35%2,90136.53%7,940Conway5,89369.00%2,44928.67%1992.33%3,44440.33%8,541Craighead25,15267.54%11,21030.10%8802.36%13,94237.44%37,242Crawford18,61578.10%4,75319.94%4661.96%13,86258.16%23,834Crittenden7,02847.87%7,36250.15%2911.98%-334-2.28%14,681Cross4,75372.74%1,64225.13%1392.13%3,11147.61%6,534Dallas1,48263.77%79834.34%441.89%68429.43%2,324Desha1,80551.50%1,63846.73%621.77%1674.77%3,505Drew4,20366.03%2,05032.21%1121.76%2,15333.82%6,365Faulkner35,35764.92%17,75232.59%1,3562.49%17,60532.33%54,465Franklin5,58280.07%1,23217.67%1572.25%4,35062.40%6,971Fulton4,04080.11%90617.97%971.92%3,13462.14%5,043Garland28,35967.00%13,01530.75%9532.25%15,34436.25%42,327Grant6,75583.62%1,19214.76%1311.62%5,56368.86%8,078Greene12,61779.75%2,93518.55%2681.69%9,68261.20%15,820Hempstead4,19368.86%1,77629.17%1201.97%2,41739.69%6,089Hot Spring9,22675.11%2,81822.94%2391.95%6,40852.17%12,283Howard3,24672.57%1,15825.89%691.54%2,08846.68%4,473Independence11,02378.67%2,68919.19%2992.13%8,33459.48%14,011Izard4,85481.92%94916.02%1222.06%3,90565.90%5,925Jackson3,50973.49%1,18324.77%831.74%2,32648.72%4,775Jefferson8,46839.19%12,80259.25%3381.56%-4,334-20.06%21,608Johnson6,76674.69%2,10723.26%1862.05%4,65951.43%9,059Lafayette1,58968.34%69830.02%381.63%89138.32%2,325Lawrence4,60880.96%96516.95%1192.09%3,64364.01%5,692Lee1,18146.87%1,27050.40%692.74%-89-3.53%2,520Lincoln2,50274.20%81324.11%571.69%1,68950.09%3,372Little River3,74476.42%1,08422.13%711.45%2,66054.29%4,899Logan6,56780.04%1,46417.84%1742.12%5,10362.20%8,205Lonoke23,22575.85%6,79022.18%6051.98%16,43553.67%30,620Madison5,88578.46%1,49119.88%1251.67%4,39458.58%7,501Marion6,23079.35%1,50119.12%1201.53%4,72960.23%7,851Miller11,84274.94%3,76923.85%1921.21%8,07351.09%15,803Mississippi6,96364.97%3,57433.35%1801.68%3,38931.62%10,717Monroe1,38556.93%1,00241.18%461.89%38315.75%2,433Montgomery2,98780.58%64517.40%752.02%2,34263.18%3,707Nevada2,00268.87%84929.21%561.93%1,15339.66%2,907Newton3,06381.25%64417.08%631.67%2,41964.17%3,770Ouachita5,05658.61%3,41239.55%1581.83%1,64419.06%8,626Perry3,55977.64%92320.14%1022.23%2,63657.50%4,584Phillips2,09842.49%2,75455.77%861.74%-656-13.28%4,938Pike3,74685.96%56012.85%521.19%3,18673.11%4,358Poinsett5,73180.96%1,23517.45%1131.60%4,49663.51%7,079Polk6,98784.30%1,14513.82%1561.88%5,84270.48%8,288Pope18,11874.90%5,48722.68%5862.42%12,63152.22%24,191Prairie2,62882.13%52416.38%481.50%2,10465.75%3,200Pulaski57,97737.67%92,03859.79%3,9092.54%-34,061-22.12%153,924Randolph5,36780.88%1,13817.15%1311.97%4,22963.73%6,636Saline39,73668.98%16,60928.83%1,2642.19%23,12740.15%57,609Scott2,91386.08%42512.56%461.36%2,48873.52%3,384Searcy3,30585.42%51113.21%531.37%2,79472.21%3,869Sebastian30,71967.59%13,65230.04%1,0812.38%17,06737.55%45,452Sevier3,77280.02%86218.29%801.70%2,91061.73%4,714Sharp5,97880.38%1,31617.70%1431.92%4,66262.68%7,437St. Francis2,90948.65%2,95349.39%1171.96%-44-0.74%5,979Stone4,80879.73%1,08918.06%1332.21%3,71961.67%6,030Union10,19666.00%5,01932.49%2331.51%5,17733.51%15,448Van Buren6,02379.03%1,43718.86%1612.11%4,58660.17%7,621Washington50,24351.71%43,77945.06%3,1363.23%6,4646.65%97,158White24,51479.50%5,64118.29%6822.21%18,87361.21%30,837Woodruff1,51365.27%76032.79%451.94%75332.48%2,318Yell5,14779.47%1,21318.73%1171.81%3,93460.74%6,477Totals759,24164.20%396,90533.56%26,5302.24%362,33630.64%1,182,676

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Desha (largest municipality: Dumas)

By congressional district Trump won all four congressional districts.

District Trump Harris Representative 71.69% 26.40%Rick Crawford 56.56% 41.03%French Hill 61.08% 36.19%Steve Womack 69.03% 29.12%Bruce Westerman

Analysis Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his victories (1992 and 1996), Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.

The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. In addition, Republicans have held all statewide elected positions in Arkansas since 2015.

Trump became the first Republican to carry the plurality-Black Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state. Trump's success in Desha, as well as his narrowed margin in other Delta region counties, was partially attributed to a decreased turnout rate in the traditionally Democratic region (of the 10 counties in the state with the lowest turnout, 4 were in the Delta despite the Delta containing only 20% of the state's counties). Despite this, he still failed to reach the success level seen by other Republicans in the state, most notably underperforming compared to John Boozman in the 2022 U.S. Senate race.

See also United States presidential elections in Arkansas 2024 United States presidential election 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries 2024 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References