2024 United States presidential election in Florida

The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. This gave Florida the third-most electoral votes in the country, which marked the first time it carried more weight than New York (28 electoral votes) in a presidential election.

A heavily populated South Atlantic state, Florida had previously been considered a crucial swing state and a bellwether in past elections, but has shifted significantly to the political right since the 2022 gubernatorial election where incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election with a 19.4% margin of victory. Trump's double-digit margin of victory solidified Florida further as a safe red state. Florida has two large distinct cultural areas: North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are part of the conservative Deep South, and South Florida has a heavy Latin American influence with large Catholic Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan populations in the Miami metropolitan area.

Trump defeated Harris in Florida by 13.1 percentage points, the biggest margin of victory for a candidate in the state since 1988. Trump won all three of the state's majority-Hispanic counties. Per exit polls, Trump won 63% of White voters, 58% of Hispanic voters of whom he won 70% of Cuban voters, and 15% of Black voters in the state. All 67 counties in Florida shifted to the right compared to 2020.

Primary elections Republican primary

The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Democratic primary On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted incumbent president Joe Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which meant that the primary would be cancelled under Florida law, and resulting in all the state's pledged delegates being awarded to Biden. This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson campaigns. Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move. On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips's, Williamson's, and Uygur's names to the ballot. The voter lost in district court.

Winner of delegates Vice-President Kamala Harris (previously pledged to President Joe Biden)

Endorsements

Hypothetical polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin JoeBiden HillaryClinton KamalaHarris GavinNewsom UndecidedSuffolk UniversitySeptember 15–18, 2022163 (LV) –50%––33%17%Suffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022164 (LV)–43%46%––11%Victory InsightsSeptember 16–18, 2021200 (LV) –60%–17%–23%

General election Trump assassination attempt

On September 15, 2024, Trump survived an assassination attempt while golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was spotted hiding in nearby shrubbery while aiming a rifle at a member of Trump's security detail. A Secret Service agent fired upon Routh, who fled the scene and was later captured in Martin County. The incident occurred two months after Trump survived a previous assassination attempt while speaking at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania.

Candidates The following presidential candidates received ballot access in Florida:

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Donald Trump, Republican Party Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party Jill Stein, Green Party Claudia De la Cruz, Party for Socialism and Liberation Randall Terry, Constitution Party Peter Sonski, American Solidarity Party Shiva Ayyadurai, Independent (write-in) Cherunda Fox (write-in)

In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his name from the ballot after he suspended his campaign.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report August 27, 2024 Inside Elections August 29, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball August 20, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill October 21, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 CNN September 1, 2024 The Economist June 12, 2024538 October 8, 2024 NBC News October 6, 2024 YouGov October 16, 2024 Split Ticket November 1, 2024

Polling Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump UndecidedMargin270ToWinOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202444.6%51.1%4.3%Trump +6.5%538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202444.6%51.2%4.2%Trump +6.6%Silver Bulletinthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.8%51.3%3.9%Trump +6.5%The Hill/DDHQthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.9%51.6%3.2%Trump +6.7%Average44.7%51.3%4.0%Trump +6.6%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris Other /UndecidedResearch Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%51%44%5%Victory InsightsNovember 1–2, 2024400 (LV)–51%47%2%Stetson UniversityOctober 25 – November 1, 2024452 (LV)± 5.0% 53%46%1%Morning ConsultOctober 23 − November 1, 20242,022 (LV)± 2.0%51%46%3%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 19–27, 2024913 (RV)± 3.2%53%44%3%897 (LV)53%44%3%ActiVoteOctober 11–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9% 56%44%–St. Pete PollsOctober 23–25, 20241,227 (LV)± 2.8%50%45%5%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20245,952 (A)–51%47%2%5,916 (LV)52%46%2%Hunt ResearchOctober 16–22, 20241,234 (LV)± 2.8% 50%45%5%Emerson CollegeOctober 18–20, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%44%4%54%46%–Cherry Communications (R)October 10–20, 2024614 (LV)± 4.0% 51%45%4%ActiVoteOctober 7–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9% 55%45%–University of North FloridaOctober 7–18, 2024977 (LV)± 3.5%53%43%4%RMG ResearchOctober 14–17, 2024788 (LV)± 3.5%52%45%3%52%47%1%Rose Institute/YouGovOctober 7–17, 20241,094 (RV)± 3.5%50%45%7%1,094 (RV)51%46%3%1,076 (LV)51%46%3%The Terrance Group (R)October 5–8, 2024818 (RV)± 3.5% 51%44%5%Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,410 (RV)± 3.3%51%47%2%1,257 (LV)± 3.6%51%47%2%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0% 55%41%4%ActiVoteSeptember 17 – October 6, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9% 53%47%–Mason-DixonOctober 1–4, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0% 49%43%8%RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024774 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%3%50%48%2%Public Policy Polling (D)September 25–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5% 50%46%4%McLaughlin & Associates (R)September 23–25, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.8%51%46%3%Victory InsightsSeptember 22–25, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%8%The Bullfinch GroupSeptember 20–23, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%48%47%5%Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 20242,948 (LV)± 2.0%50%47%3%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20243,182 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%4%Emerson CollegeSeptember 3–5, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%5%51%48%1%ActiVoteAugust 16–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9% 53%47%–Cherry Communications (R)August 15–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0% 52%45%3%Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024837 (RV)± 3.4% 51%47%2%ActiVote August 5–15, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46% –Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityAugust 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%49%46%5%1,040 (LV)50%47%3%University of North FloridaJuly 24–27, 2024774 (LV)± 4.6%49%42%9% July 21, 2024 Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.InsiderAdvantage (R)July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%Suffolk University/USA TodaySeptember 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–46%44%10%Victory InsightsSeptember 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%49%51%–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedFocaldataOctober 3 – November 1, 20241,250 (LV)–52%45%–0%0%3%1,099 (RV)± 2.8%50%46%–1%0%3%1,250 (A)–49%47%–1%0%3%Cygnal (R)October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%–1%1%7%Hunt ResearchOctober 16–22, 20241,234 (LV)± 2.8% 50%44%–0%0%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 16–18, 20241,275 (LV)–49%45%–0%1%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 20241,009 (LV)–50%44%–1%0%5%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0% 53%40%–0%1%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 20242,946 (LV)–49%45%–1%1%4%Public Policy Polling (D)September 25–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5% 49%45%0%1%–5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 16–19, 20241,602 (LV)–50%45%–0%1%4%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 6–9, 20241,465 (LV)–50%44%–0%0%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 25–28, 2024980 (LV)± 3.1% 48%43%–0%1%8% <noinclude>

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris RobertKennedy Jr CornelWest JillStein ChaseOliver Other /UndecidedNew York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 5.0% 53%40%0%0%0%1%6% August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024837 (RV)± 3.4% 48%45%2%1%1%–3%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 12–15, 20241,296 (LV)–48%43%3%–0%1%5%Suffolk University/USA TodayAugust 7–11, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%42%5%0%0%1%5%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 31 – August 3, 2024976 (LV)–47%41%5%–0%1%6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesJuly 22–24, 2024572 (LV)–47%39%5%–0%1%8%Targoz Market ResearchJuly 19–24, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%5%1%1%0%8%988 (LV)47%42%4%0%0%1%6%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump KamalaHarris RobertKennedy Jr Other /Undecided August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityAugust 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%47%44%5%4%1,040 (LV)47%45%5%3%McLaughlin & Associates (R)August 6–8, 2024800 (LV)–52%44%3%1%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DonaldTrump JoeBiden Other /Undecided July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.InsiderAdvantage (R)July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%50%44%6%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJune 8–9, 2024883 (RV)± 3.3%46%42%13%771 (LV)49%43%8%The Tyson Group (R)June 6–9, 20241,050 (LV)± 3.0%46%36%18%Fox NewsJune 1–4, 20241,075 (RV)± 3.0%50%46%4%CBS News/YouGovMay 10–16, 20241,209 (RV)± 3.9%54%45%1%Prime GroupMay 9–16, 2024486 (RV)–53%47%–Cherry Communications (R)April 28 – May 7, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%7%John Zogby StrategiesApril 13–21, 2024749 (LV)–51%42%7%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityApril 15–17, 2024865 (RV)± 3.3%50%42%8%815 (LV)51%43%6%Emerson CollegeApril 9–10, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%38%11%56%44%–St. Pete PollsMarch 11–13, 20241,963 (LV)± 2.2%48%42%10%Cygnal (R)November 13–15, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%48%43%9%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 27 – November 11, 2023946 (RV)± 3.2%49%39%12%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 7–9, 20231,100 (RV)–44%39%17%Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityJune 27 – July 1, 2023933 (RV)± 3.2%49%39%2%Metropolitan Research ServicesMarch 15–19, 20231,001 (RV)–47%43%10%Emerson CollegeMarch 13–15, 20231,153 (RV)± 2.8%44%44%12%University of North FloridaFebruary 25 – March 7, 20231,452 (RV)± 2.6%50%43%7%Victory InsightsNovember 16–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%49%51%–Rasmussen Reports (R)November 8–9, 20221,224 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%45%41%14%Suffolk UniversitySeptember 15–18, 2022500 (LV)–47%44%9%Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022815 (LV)± 4.3%49%41%10%Suffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%44%9%Victory InsightsSeptember 16–18, 2021450 (LV)± 4.6%49%51%–St. Pete PollsAugust 16–17, 20212,068 (RV)± 2.2%47%48%5%Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%42%50%8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein