2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024. Donald Trump won by 5.5 percent.

The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump. Formerly a moderately red state, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a reduced margin of Republican victory compared to previous cycles, despite a more favorable presidential election year for the GOP nationwide. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state was now considered a purple state. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.

Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls. This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in any of the seven key swing states, all of which he won. It was also Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.At a glance: March 19 US presidential primary states and delegate counts, Reuters, March 19, 2024

Republican primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".

General election Candidates The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.

Kamala Harris — Democratic Donald Trump — Republican Chase Oliver — Libertarian Jill Stein — Green President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in) Dawanda Shelton — Independent (Write-in) Joel Skousen — Constitution Party (Write-in)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 4, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball (flip)November 4, 2024 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill November 4, 2024 CNN November 4, 2024 CNalysis November 4, 2024 The Economist November 4, 2024 538 (flip)November 4, 2024 Inside Elections November 3, 2024 NBC News November 4, 2024

Election rule changes Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered. In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.

Polling Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamalaHarrisDonaldTrump Other /UndecidedMargin270ToWin270ToWinOctober 22 – November 4, 2024November 5, 202446.8%48.4%4.8%Trump +1.6%538538through November 4, 2024November 5, 202446.8%48.9%4.3%Trump +2.1%Silver BulletinSilver Bulletinthrough November 4, 2024November 5, 202446.9%49.3%3.8%Trump +2.4%The Hill/DDHQThe Hill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.3%49.9%2.8%Trump +2.6%Average47.0%49.1%3.9%Trump +2.1%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KamalaHarris DonaldTrump Other /UndecidedHarrisXNovember 3–5, 20241,636 (RV)± 2.4%46%47%7%49%51%–1,468 (LV)47%49%4%49%51%–AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 2024875 (LV)± 3.0%47%52%1%Victory InsightsNovember 2–3, 2024750 (LV)–48%49%3%Trafalgar Group (R)November 1–3, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%47%49%4%Patriot PollingNovember 1–3, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%48%51%1%InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%5%AtlasIntelNovember 1–2, 2024967 (LV)± 3.0%46%52%2%Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.3%48%50%2%48%51%1%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 25 – November 2, 20241,025 (RV)± 3.5%44%48%8%1,025 (LV)45%49%6%ActiVoteOctober 8 – November 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%–SoCal Strategies (R)October 30–31, 2024750 (LV)± 4.0%49%50%1%AtlasIntelOctober 30–31, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%2%OnMessage Inc. (R)October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–47%50%3%YouGovOctober 25–31, 2024880 (RV)± 4.4%49%50%1%856 (LV)49%50%1%Morning ConsultOctober 21−30, 2024666 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%Rasmussen Reports (R)October 25–29, 2024803 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%AtlasIntelOctober 25–29, 20241,458 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%2%Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOctober 28, 2024610 (LV)± 4.0%48%50%2%RABA ResearchOctober 25–27, 2024589 (RV)± 4.0%45%43%12%Trafalgar Group (R)October 24–26, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%46%48%6%CES/YouGovOctober 1–25, 20242,077 (A)–49%49%2%2,066 (LV)47%51%2%Marist CollegeOctober 17–22, 20241,329 (RV)± 3.5%49%49%2%1,193 (LV)± 3.7%49%50%1%InsiderAdvantage (R)October 20–21, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%47%50%3%HighGroundOctober 19–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%47%7%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultOctober 16–20, 2024915 (RV)± 3.0%49%49%2%861 (LV)49%49%2%University of Arizona/TruedotOctober 12–20, 2024846 (RV)± 3.4%46%45%9%AtlasIntelOctober 12–17, 20241,440 (LV)± 3.0%49%49%2%CBS News/YouGovOctober 11−16, 20241,435 (LV)± 3.3%48%51%1%Morning ConsultOctober 6−15, 2024653 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3%The Washington Post/Schar SchoolSeptember 30 – October 15, 2024580 (RV)± 5.0%44%50%6%580 (LV)46%49%5%Trafalgar Group (R)October 10–13, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%46%48%6%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 7–10, 2024808 (RV)± 4.0%45%51%4%808 (LV)46%51%3%Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)October 6–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%49%5%Emerson CollegeOctober 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%48%51%1%The Wall Street JournalSeptember 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%48%46%6%ActiVoteSeptember 6 – October 8, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%–SoCal Strategies (R)October 5–7, 2024735 (LV)–49%48%3%RMG ResearchSeptember 30 – October 2, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%4%46%50%4%OnMessage Inc. (R)September 24 – October 2, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%47%8%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)September 24 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%50%2%InsiderAdvantage (R)September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%1%HighGroundSeptember 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%6%National ResearchSeptember 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%47%5%Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)September 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%48%47%5%Emerson CollegeSeptember 27–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.2%48%50%3%48%52%–AtlasIntelSeptember 20–25, 2024946 (LV)± 3.0%49%50%1%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–50%48%2%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultSeptember 19–25, 2024977 (RV)± 3.0%50%47%3%926 (LV)50%47%3%Fox NewsSeptember 20−24, 20241,021 (RV)± 3.0%48%50%2%764 (LV)± 3.5%48%51%1%Marist CollegeSeptember 19−24, 20241,416 (RV)± 3.6%48%50%2%1,264 (LV)± 3.8%49%50%1%Rasmussen Reports (R)September 19–22, 20241,030 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%The New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 17–21, 2024713 (RV)± 4.4%45%49%6%713 (LV)45%50%5%Emerson CollegeSeptember 15–18, 2024868 (LV)± 3.3%48%49%3%49%50%1%Morning ConsultSeptember 9−18, 2024862 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%5%Trafalgar Group (R)September 11–12, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%7%Data OrbitalSeptember 7–9, 2024550 (LV)± 2.9%46%46%8%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%TIPP InsightsSeptember 3–5, 20241,015 (RV)± 3.2%46%46%8%949 (LV)47%47%6%Patriot PollingSeptember 1–3, 2024804 (RV)–47%49%4%InsiderAdvantage (R)August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%University of Arizona/TruedotAugust 28–31, 20241,155 (RV)–42%46%12%Emerson CollegeAugust 25–28, 2024720 (LV)± 3.6%47%50%7%48%51%1%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultAugust 23–26, 2024776 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%758 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%Fox NewsAugust 23–26, 20241,014 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%1%Spry Strategies (R)August 14–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%49%3%Rasmussen Reports (R)August 13–17, 20241,187 (LV)± 3.0%45%47%8%Noble Predictive InsightsAugust 12–16, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%9%FocaldataAugust 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%–Strategies 360August 7–14, 2024400 (RV)± 4.9%47%46%7%The New York Times/Siena CollegeAugust 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%49%45%7%677 (LV)50%45%5%Trafalgar Group (R)August 6–8, 20241,092 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%5%Navigator Research (D)July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%49%5%Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)July 26 – August 8, 2024435 (LV)–48%46%6%HighGroundJuly 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%44%42%14%Public Policy Polling (D)July 29–30, 2024618 (RV)± 3.9%47%49%4%Public Opinion Strategies (R)July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%43%48%9%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultJuly 24–28, 2024804 (RV)± 3.0%49%47%4%Emerson CollegeJuly 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%44%49%7%47%53%– July 21, 2024 Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.InsiderAdvantage (R)July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%10%Public Policy Polling (D)July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–44%52%4%Bloomberg/Morning ConsultMay 7–13, 2024795 (RV)± 3.0%42%51%7%Emerson CollegeFebruary 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%48%12%The New York Times/Siena CollegeOctober 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%43%48%9%603 (LV)43%48%9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedKamala HarrisDonaldTrumpJillSteinCornelWestChaseOliver Others/UndecidedMarginRace to the WHRace to the WHthrough October 10, 2024October 15, 202446.4%48.8%1.0%0.8%3.0%Trump +2.4%270toWin270toWinOctober 2 – 12, 2024October 12, 202447.4%47.6%1.0%0.0%0.5%3.5%Trump +0.2%Average46.9%48.1%1.0%0.0%0.8%3.2%Trump +1.2%