The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, significantly larger than Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations projecting the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried the Black-majority, suburban counties of Prince George's County and Charles County with over 80% and 60% of the vote respectively, Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the white-majority, suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics. Frederick, Kent, and Talbot counties voted for Trump in 2016, but supported Biden in 2020.
Primary elections The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.
Republican primary Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Democratic primary
Green primary +2020 Maryland Green Party primaryCandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Howie Hawkins3453.1%3461.8%3464.15%3468%Dario Hunter1625%1629.1%1630.18%1632%Kent Mesplay23.1%35.5%35.66%EliminatedWrite-ins23.1%23.6%EliminatedSedinam Moyowasiza-Curry11.6%EliminatedEmpty ballot914.1%Eliminated Total votes64100.0%
General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 10, 2020Inside ElectionsSeptember 4, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallJuly 14, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsAugust 16, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPRAugust 3, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538September 9, 2020
Polling Graphical summary
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 7–26, 2020November 3, 202060.0%31.7%8.3%Biden +28.3Real Clear PoliticsSeptember 4 – October 24, 2020November 3, 202060.3%31.0%8.7%Biden +29.3FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202063.1%31.6%5.3%Biden +31.4Average61.1%31.4%7.4%Biden +29.7
Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,216 (LV)± 2.5%31%66% – – – –SwayableOct 23 – Nov 1, 2020503 (LV)± 5.7%31%67%2%0% – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20205,820 (LV) –32%66% – – – –Gonzalez Maryland PollOct 19–24, 2020820 (RV)± 3.5%33%58% – –3%6%Goucher CollegeSep 30 – Oct 4, 2020776 (LV)± 3.5%30%61% 2% 2% 3% 2%Change Research/Our Voice MarylandSep 29 – Oct 1, 2020650 (V)± 4.55%32%61% – – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,364 (LV) –31%67% – – –2%OpinionWorksOpinionWorksSep 4–11, 2020 753 (LV) –30%62% – –3%5%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,813 (LV) –31%66% – – –3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,911 (LV) –32%66% – – –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,175 (LV) –34%64% – – –2%Gonzalez Maryland Poll May 19–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3.5%31%59% – – –6%Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 60% – – 1% 4%
with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% –
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 33% 58% –
with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) TulsiGabbard (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 52% –
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AmyKlobuchar (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% –
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 34% 61% –
with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) TomSteyer (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 36% 54% –
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) UndecidedGoucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 59% –
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat Other UndecidedGoucher College Sep 13–18, 2019 548 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 65% 3% 4%DFM Research Jan 19–22, 2019 500 (A) ± 4.4% 31% 53% – 16%
Results
By county CountyJoe BidenDemocraticDonald TrumpRepublicanVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal votes cast # % # % # % # % Allegany 9,158 29.89% 20,886 68.16% 597 1.95% -11,728 -38.27% 30,641 Anne Arundel 172,823 55.82% 127,821 41.28% 8,973 2.90% 45,002 14.54% 309,617 Baltimore 258,409 62.28% 146,202 35.24% 10,321 2.49% 112,207 27.04% 414,932 Baltimore City 207,260 87.28% 25,374 10.69% 4,827 2.03% 181,886 76.59% 237,461 Calvert 22,587 45.99% 25,346 51.61% 1,179 2.40% -2,759 -5.62% 49,112 Caroline 5,095 32.26% 10,283 65.11% 416 2.63% -5,188 -32.85% 15,794 Carroll 36,456 36.34% 60,218 60.02% 3,653 3.64% -23,762 -23.68% 100,327 Cecil 16,809 35.42% 29,439 62.03% 1,214 2.56% -12,630 -26.61% 47,462 Charles 62,171 69.47% 25,579 28.58% 1,748 1.95% 36,592 40.89% 89,498 Dorchester 6,857 42.92% 8,764 54.85% 356 2.23% -1,907 -11.93% 15,977 Frederick 77,675 53.34% 63,682 43.73% 4,258 2.92% 13,993 9.61% 145,615 Garrett 3,281 21.02% 12,002 76.88% 328 2.10% -8,721 -55.86% 15,611 Harford 63,095 42.58% 80,930 54.61% 4,161 2.81% -17,835 -12.03% 148,186 Howard 129,433 70.70% 48,390 26.43% 5,239 2.86% 81,043 44.27% 183,062 Kent 5,329 49.37% 5,195 48.13% 270 2.50% 134 1.24% 10,794 Montgomery 419,569 78.61% 101,222 18.96% 12,952 2.43% 318,347 59.65% 533,743 Prince George's 379,208 89.26% 37,090 8.73% 8,557 2.01% 342,118 80.53% 424,855 Queen Anne's 10,709 35.35% 18,741 61.87% 840 2.77% -8,032 -26.52% 30,290 St. Mary's 23,138 41.57% 30,826 55.38% 1,701 3.06% -7,688 -13.81% 55,665 Somerset 4,241 41.80% 5,739 56.56% 167 1.65% -1,498 -14.76% 10,147 Talbot 11,062 49.04% 10,946 48.53% 547 2.43% 116 0.51% 22,555 Washington 26,044 38.42% 40,224 59.35% 1,511 2.23% -14,180 -20.93% 67,779 Wicomico 22,054 47.72% 22,944 49.65% 1,218 2.64% -890 -1.93% 46,216 Worcester 12,560 39.63% 18,571 58.60% 560 1.77% -6,011 -18.97% 31,691Totals1,985,02365.36%976,41432.15%75,5932.49%1,008,60933.21%3,037,030
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick) Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown) Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)
By congressional district Biden won seven of the state's eight congressional districts. District Biden Trump Representative 39% 58%Andy Harris 65% 32%Dutch Ruppersberger 68% 29%John Sarbanes 79% 19%Anthony Brown 68% 29%Steny Hoyer 60% 37%David Trone 78% 20%Kweisi Mfume 69% 29%Jamie Raskin
Analysis Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.
With the exception of Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.
See also United States presidential elections in Maryland 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections
Notes
References
Further reading
External links
(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)