2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.11% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.1%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia since William Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976. He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.

The rapid growth of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outside Richmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%.

Primary elections Canceled Republican primary

The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively. At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.

Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.

Green primary The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020. +2020 Green Party of Virginia primaryCandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Howie Hawkins 4262.7%4262.7%4364.2%4465.7%Dario Hunter1725.4%1826.9%2131.3%2334.3%Kent Mesplay34.5%34.5%34.5%EliminatedSedinam Moyowasiza-Curry23.0%23.0%EliminatedJill Stein (write-in)23.0%EliminatedJesse Ventura (write-in)11.5%Eliminated Total votes67100.0%

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2020Inside ElectionsNovember 3, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2020PoliticoNovember 3, 2020RCPNovember 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020November 3, 2020CNNNovember 3, 2020The EconomistNovember 3, 2020CBS NewsNovember 3, 2020270towinNovember 3, 2020ABC NewsNovember 3, 2020NPRSeptember 16, 2020NBC NewsNovember 3, 2020538November 3, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 15–31, 2020November 3, 202052.8%41.0%6.2%Biden +11.8FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.7%41.9%4.4%Biden +11.8Average53.1%41.5%5.3%Biden +11.8

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20204,550 (LV)± 2%41%57% - - – –SwayableSwayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020467 (LV)± 6.4%39%59%2%1% – –Data for ProgressData for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%43%54%1%0%1% –Roanoke CollegeRoanoke CollegeOct 23–29, 2020802 (LV)± 3.5%42%53%2% -1%2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20207,663 (LV) –43%55% - - – –Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport UniversityOct 15–27, 2020908 (LV)± 3.4%41%53% - -2%4%SwayableOct 23–26, 2020351 (LV)± 5.2%44%55%1% - – –Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth UniversityOct 13–22, 2020709 (LV)± 4.93%39%51% - -2%8%Schar School/Washington PostSchar School/Washington PostOct 13–19, 2020908 (LV)± 4%41%52% 3% -0%4%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosOct 11–14, 20201,231 (LV)± 3.1%42%55% - -3%1%Reconnect Research/Roanoke CollegeReconnect Research/Roanoke CollegeSep 30 – Oct 12, 2020602 (LV) –39%54% 4% - -4%Survey Monkey/TableauSurvey Monkey/TableauSep 15 – Oct 12, 20204,248 (LV) –43%55% - - –2%Cygnal/Gade for VirginiaCygnal/Gade for VirginiaOct 9–11, 2020607 (LV) –42%51% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,882 (LV) –42%56% - - –2%Cygnal/Gade for VirginiaSep 22–25, 2020600 (LV) –41%52% - - – –Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport UniversitySep 9–21, 2020796 (LV)± 3.9%43%48% - -2%7%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth University Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020693 (LV)± 6.22%39%52% - -1%8%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20202,626 (LV) –41%57% - - –2%Roanoke CollegeRoanoke CollegeAug 9–22, 2020566 (LV)± 4.1%39%53% - -3%5%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20203,178 (LV) –43%55% - - –2%Morning ConsultJul 17–26, 20201,156 (LV)± 2.9%41%52% - - – –Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth UniversityJul 11–19, 2020725 (LV)± 6.2%39%50% - -1%10%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,619 (LV) –42%57% - - –1%Morning ConsultMay 17–26, 20201,148 (LV) –42%52% - - – –Roanoke CollegeRoanoke CollegeMay 3–16, 2020563 (LV)± 4.1%39%51% - - – –Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth University Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020 812 (A) ± 4.5% 41% 51% - - – 8%Hampton UniversityHampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 45% - - – –Roanoke CollegeRoanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 48% - - – –Mason-DixonMason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – 6%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 46%49% - - – 5%Virginia Commonwealth UniversityVirginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 44%52% - - – 4%University of Mary Washington/Research AmericaUniversity of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 37% 55% - - 1% 4%with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D)Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 43%Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) UndecidedHampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% –Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% –Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0%47% 45% 8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) KamalaHarris (D) Other UndecidedUniversity of Mary WashingtonUniversity of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 50% 2% 5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AmyKlobuchar (D)Hampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 37% 39%Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) Other UndecidedHampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 44% – –Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% – –Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0%51% 45% – 4%Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1%48% 45% – 7%Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0%47%48% – 5%University of Mary Washington/Research America Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 2% 4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) Other UndecidedHampton University Feb 25–28, 2020 768 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 42% – –Roanoke College Feb 9–18, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% – –Mason-Dixon Dec 12–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0%48% 44% – 8%Virginia Commonwealth University Dec 2–13, 2019 728 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 47% – 6%Virginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 46%50% – 4%University of Mary Washington Sep 3–15, 2019 1,009 (A) ± 3.1% 38% 53% 1% 5%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat Other UndecidedWason Center, Christopher Newport UniversitySep 4–30, 2019726 (RV) ± 4.1%36%51%6%6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericOpponent Other UndecidedWason Center, Christopher Newport UniversityFeb 3–23, 2020866 (RV) ± 3.5%38%59%0%2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin GenericRepublican GenericDemocrat Other UndecidedVirginia Commonwealth University Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 645 (LV) ± 5.0% 48%49% – 3%Ipsos/University of VirginiaIpsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 (A) ± 4.0% 25% 45% 3% 20%

Results

By county and independent city