The 2026 Iran war fuel crisis is a worldwide fuel crisis caused by the war between Iran and the U.S.-Israel coalition. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's oil trade passes, and attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran and several Gulf Cooperation Council countries led to a large disruption in global oil supplies. The disruption led to global oil prices rising and caused fuel shortages in countries which imported most of their fuel from the Persian Gulf region. Much of the world has been affected by panic buying and severe disruption to the distribution of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and urea used for fertiliser.
The economies of most countries are expected to be adversely affected by the crisis, leading to inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession. As of April 2026 there were ongoing concerns about energy security as well as food security, related to fertiliser shortages and costs.
Brent prices initially surged to a peak of approximately $118 in late March 2026 before declining to around $70 by July 1, then rebounded to over $100 by late July and fluctuated between $87 and $97 through August. As of early September 2026, price surged up to $109 as renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure reversed earlier gains.
By June 2026, the yearly inflation rate is 3.53%, with the consumer price index decreasing by 0.42% and weekly earnings increasing by 0.77% since May 2026. In July, the IMF revised its world GDP growth rate to 3% for 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. According to the same report, the effects of the oil supply shock on the world economy are unevenly distributed, weighing more on energy importers and vulnerable economies.
Overview
The 2026 Iran war caused immediate volatility in energy markets, with Brent crude oil prices surging 10–13% to around $80–82 per barrel by 2 March 2026, and dropping back to near $70 by July, 2026. The conflict has caused the restriction of nearly all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to what the International Energy Agency has characterised as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market". The head of the IEA described the situation caused by the war as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history".
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of global oil supplies and significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. Analysts have forecast that prices could reach $100 per barrel if disruptions persisted, potentially adding 0.8% to global inflation.
Even after Iran and the United States announced a ceasefire on 8 April, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below pre-war levels.
Exports from the region have been typically going to Asian countries, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounting for 75% of oil and 59% of LNG exports. However, Singapore and Taiwan depend more on Qatari LNG, while Pakistan and Bangladesh are more price sensitive.
Qatari state-owned oil and gas company QatarEnergy announced on 3 March that it was declaring Force Majeure on its contracts with buyers, and internal sources, according to Reuters, said that it would soon be shutting down gas liquefication, as LNG tankers could not leave the Gulf, and that restarting it would take weeks. These announcements caused increases in world gas prices, which analysts said was a part of the Iranian Government's plan to apply pressure on the world to stop the war. On 6 March, Qatar warned that if the war continues, other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare Force Majeure. Also on 6 March, it was reported that according to satellite imagery analysis by both Bloomberg and the Energy Economics and Society Research Institute in Tokyo, that Ras Laffan, the main gas facility in Qatar, appears not to have been damaged before the "unprecedented shutdown" which sent fuel prices higher. The United States, buffered by domestic production, faced less direct impact but saw petrol prices rise 5–10 cents per gallon daily.
On 18 March, Iran hit Qatar's inactive Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG complex, causing a 17% reduction in Qatar's LNG production capacity. The damages from this attack would take 3–5 years to fix. Consequently, LNG spot prices in Asia increased by over 140 %.
The impacts of the conflict are similar to the 1970s energy crisis, including acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation, and heightened risks of stagflation and recession.
According to the International Energy Agency's World Energy Investment 2026 report, the crisis was prompting a reshaping of global energy investment and accelerating diversification away from Middle Eastern supply routes. The agency projected total energy investment of $3.4 trillion in 2026, with oil investment falling for a third consecutive year to below $500 billion, while natural gas investment rose to $330 billion—its highest in a decade—driven by new LNG projects in the United States and Qatar. Coal investment was projected to reach $180 billion, the highest since 2012. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as "the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced", drawing a parallel with the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Countries such as Australia and India have more sufficient reserves but face challenges with panic buying. Economies most reliant on the strait for energy imports are in Asia, with Europe also viewing the strait as vital for its energy security. The initial disruption of petroleum is expected to affect Asia the most, but Europe is likely to be hit hard in the medium-to-long term, and the UK is expected to be the worst-hit major economy.
The British think tank The Food Policy Institute has warned of long-term increases in food prices due to disruption in fuel and fertiliser markets. The Strait of Hormuz is central to the global fertiliser trade. Over 30 per cent of global urea, which is widely used and produced from natural gasis exported from Gulf countries through the Strait. Much of the cost of producing some foods, including corn and wheat, is in the cost of fertiliser, and this cost, along with rising energy costs, makes basic food production very expensive. Much of the Gulf states' food is importedfor example, over 90 per cent in Qatar. These factors have led to fears of food insecurity not only in Gulf states, but around the world.
As of 28 March, analysts fear that another hard oil crisis is unfolding that is expected to be very decisive to the global economy.
Oil prices increased on September 13 due to market stability after recent declines. Investors are awaiting potential U.S.-Iran talks at the UN General Assembly. Analysts believe the price rise may result from traders adjusting their positions rather than a change in market trends.
Airlines Airlines are being affected by the shortage of jet fuel in parts of Asia and Oceania. Many airlines in southeast Asia and Oceania are either adding surcharges to fares or cancelling flights or routes. Australia, which sources most of its jet fuel from China, followed by Singapore and South Korea, has 30 days' worth of jet fuel held in reserve.
South Korea makes the refined product and exports it around the region, but it relies mostly on crude arriving via the Gulf, so it is considering limiting its exports. Korean Air is the country's third airline to enter "emergency mode", at this point focusing only on internal cost-reduction measures.
Africa
Algeria Algeria is an oil and natural gas producer, and one of the European Union's largest suppliers of LNG. It has entered talks with Spain and Italy, as well as fielding enquiries from other countries, including Vietnam. It could benefit economically.
Egypt Egypt relies on imported oil, so the government has introduced measures to keep fuel usage down, including the mandatory closure of retail businesses at 9pm for a month, dimming street lights and roadside advertisements. It has slowed down some large government projects, and increased the price of both petrol and public transport fares. Non-essential workers have been ordered to work from home one day per week.
Ethiopia Ethiopia is experiencing a severe fuel crisis, with over 180,000 tonnes of fuel undelivered in recent weeks. This has halved the country's daily diesel supply from 9.2 million to 4.5 million litres, according to Minister Kassahun Gofe. In Ethiopia, security institutions have been prioritised, along with, major government projects, key industries, and essential goods production. There are fuel restrictions, and petrol stations are prioritising public transport. Fuel supplies to the Tigray Region have been completely suspended. Addis Ababa residents have reported that, “Over the past month, prices of many commodities have increased significantly ...bottled water, cooking oil, eggs and other essentials have risen by nearly 40 per cent.”
Ghana Ghana, which has limited refining capacity, relies on imported refined products, but is supplied by a range of producers, including Russia.
Kenya Kenya is badly affected by the war, as it sources all its oil from the Middle East. There has been panic buying of petrol, but the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has maintained stability in prices for 30 days. The war has also affected some exports, with ships taking longer to reach their destination, so the Kenya Ports Authority has prioritised the export of perishable products such as tea, flowers, and avocados. The fuel crisis has greatly impacted Kenya's important floriculture industry.
The EPRA announced record high fuel price increases on 15 April. This resulted in public transport operators hiking their fares by roughly 25% dependent on various factors. These actions are expected to raise inflation and increase prices for basic goods and important services.
Mauritius Mauritius is dependent on oil imports for generating power, and, after a shipment of oil had not arrived as scheduled on 30 March, only 21 days of stock remained in the country. The government arranged for more expensive alternative fuel to be shipped from Singapore, and imposed restrictions to reduce wastage of fuel.
Namibia The Namibian Government reduced fuel levies by 50% for at least three months, using its National Energy Fund to stabilise prices until the end of June. Gas and oil exploration continues in the country, which expects to start producing oil by 2030.
Nigeria Nigeria is a major oil producer, and its large Dangote refinery has increased production to help meet world shortages. Despite the government and oil companies profiting from this, ordinary citizens are not expected to benefit immediately, due to transport cost increases.
South Africa Saudi Arabia supplies most of South Africa's fuel. The South African Government has said that there was no shortage of fuel in the country, but prices have increased and some petrol stations have introduced their own rationing of diesel. With more traffic potentially taking the route around the Cape of Good Hope, and ships needing to fuel along the African coast, some ports such as Walvis Bay, Cape Town, and Durban may come under increased pressure, but also benefit from the diversion.
Uganda At the end of March, Uganda only had a few weeks' worth of stock.
South Sudan South Sudan has large oil reserves, but most of it is exported and it relies on imports for refined products. Because the country generates 96% of its electricity from oil, the government has started rationing electricity in the capital, Juba, which affects businesses, and rolling power cuts are expected to continue.
Zimbabwe Zimbabwe has announced plans to scrap some taxes on fuel imports, which rose 40% in under a month. It has increased the amount of ethanol in its petrol from 5% to 20%.
Americas
North America