The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against the DFL nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for president since 1972.

Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, where he outperformed FDR, LBJ, Obama and Clinton. His vote share in Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range, although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between the New Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of White Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters from union households. Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Koochiching or Mahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win without Traverse County since Grover Cleveland in 1892; the first to win without Kittson, Norman, Itasca, or Beltrami Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1912; the first to win without Swift County since Wilson in 1916; the first to win without Lac qui Parle County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944; the first to win without Chippewa, Freeborn, Mower, or Rice Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960 and the first to win without Fillmore County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is the first time since 1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican than New Hampshire.

Primary elections Republican primary

The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary Candidate Votes % Delegates Donald Trump (incumbent) 137,275 97.7 39 Bill Weld (write-in) 443 0.3 0 Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) 16 0.0 0 Other write-ins 2,821 2.0 0 Total 140,555 100.0 39 (of 39)

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates. Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019, but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.

Biden won the most delegates.

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota used ranked-choice voting to tabulate the results of their caucus. After 7 rounds, Jacob Hornberger was declared the winner.

+Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucus, February 25, 2020CandidateRound 1Round 7Votes%TransferVotes% Jacob Hornberger 37 38.1% + 10 47 59.5% Jo Jorgensen 12 12.4% + 20 32 40.5% Vermin Supreme 11 11.3%- 11Eliminated Adam Kokesh 6 6.2%- 6Eliminated John Monds 6 6.2%- 6Eliminated Lincoln Chafee 6 6.2%- 6Eliminated Mark Whitney 6 6.2%- 6Eliminated N.O.T.A. 4 4.1%- 4Eliminated Arvin Vohra 2 2.1%- 2Eliminated Ken Armstrong 2 2.1%- 2Eliminated Sam Robb 2 2.1%- 2Eliminated Keenan Wallace Dunham 1 1.0%- 1Eliminated Sorinne Ardeleanu 1 1.0%- 1Eliminated Abrahamson 1 1.0%- 1Eliminated Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman 0 0.0%Eliminated Jedi Hill 0 0.0%Eliminated Souraya Faas 0 0.0%Eliminated Steven Richey 0 0.0%Eliminated Round 1 Total 97 100.0% Round 7 Total 79 100.0% +Minnesota Libertarian vice presidential caucus, February 25, 2020CandidateRound 1Round 2Votes%TransferVotes% Jeff Wood 32 40.0% + 0 32 52.5% Spike Cohen 29 36.3% + 0 29 47.5% NOTA 19 23.8%- 19Eliminated Round 1 Total 80 100.0% Round 2 Total 61 100.0%

General election Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPNiskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020CNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC NewsFiveThirtyEight

Polling

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 27 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202051.6%41.8%6.6%Biden +9.8Real Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsOctober 12–27, 2020November 3, 202048.0%43.7%8.3%Biden +4.3FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202051.8%42.7%5.5%Biden +9.2Average50.5%42.7%6.8%Biden +7.8

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,031 (LV)± 2.5%41%56% - - – –Research Co.Research Co.Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%45%54% - -1%4%Data for ProgressData for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,259 (LV)± 2.8%43%51%4%2%1% –SwayableSwayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020466 (LV)± 5.9%43%53%4%0% – –Morning ConsultOct 22–31, 2020883 (LV)± 3.0%42%52% - - – –Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingOct 29–30, 2020770 (V) –43%54% - -2%1%Targoz Market Research/PollSmartTargoz Market Research/PollSmartOct 25–30, 20201,138 (LV) –44%53% - -3% –St. Cloud State UniversitySt. Cloud State UniversityOct 10–29, 2020372 (A)± 6.7%39%54% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20205,498 (LV) –42%55% - - – –SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 NewsSurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News Oct 23–27, 2020649 (LV)± 4.3%42%47% - -5%6%Gravis MarketingGravis MarketingOct 24–26, 2020657 (LV)± 3.8%39%53% - - –8%Trafalgar GroupTrafalgar GroupOct 24–25, 20201,065 (LV)± 2.92%45%48%2% -4%1%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily KosOct 17–20, 2020840 (LV)± 3.6%43%53% - -3%1%SurveyUSA/KSTPSurveyUSA/KSTPOct 16–20, 2020625 (LV)± 5%42%48% - - – –Morning ConsultOct 11–20, 2020864 (LV)± 3.3%42%51% - - – –Change Research/MinnPostChange Research/MinnPostOct 12–15, 20201,021 (LV)± 3.1%44%49%2%0%2%2%David Binder Research/Focus on Rural AmericaDavid Binder Research/Focus on Rural AmericaOct 10–13, 2020200 (LV) –41%52% - - – –Morning ConsultOct 2–11, 2020898 (LV)± 3.3%44%50% - - – –SurveyUSA/ABC6 NewsSurveyUSA/ABC6 News Oct 1–6, 2020929 (LV)± 3.9%40%47% - -3%10%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,808 (LV) –43%55% - - –2%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University Sep 20–24, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%47%2%0%4%6%Mason-Dixon/StarTribune/MPR News/KARE 11Mason-Dixon/StarTribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Sep 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%48% - - 2% 8%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesRedfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–17, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.66%42%51%0%0%1%5%ABC/Washington PostABC/Washington Post Sep 8–13, 2020 615 (LV) ± 4.5% 41%57% - - 1% 1%Morning ConsultMorning Consult Sep 4–13, 2020 643 (LV) ± 4%44%48% - -2%6%YouGov/CBSYouGov/CBSSep 9–11, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.9%41%50% - -2%6%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotSep 8–10, 2020814 (LV)± 3.9%41%50%2%1%0%5%SurveyUSASurveyUSASep 4–7, 2020553 (LV)± 5.2%40%49% - -4%7%Morning ConsultMorning ConsultAug 29 – Sep 7, 2020649 (LV)± (2%–4%)44%49% - - – –PPPPPPSep 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%44%52% - -3%1%Harper Polling/Jason LewisHarper Polling/Jason LewisAug 30 – Sep 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.38%45%48% – – –4%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,939 (LV) –43%56% - - –1%Morning ConsultMorning ConsultAug 21–30, 2020647 (LV)± (2%–4%)43%50% - - – –Trafalgar GroupTrafalgar GroupAug 15–18, 20201,141 (LV)± 3.0%47%47% 4% -1%2%Morning ConsultAug 7–16, 2020615 (LV)± (2%–4%)42%50% - - – –Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeAug 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%49%51% - - – –David Binder ResearchDavid Binder ResearchJul 30–31, 2020200 (LV) –36%54% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20202,288 (LV) –47%51% - - –2%Morning ConsultJul 17–26, 2020662 (LV)± 3.8%44%47% - - – –Trafalgar GroupTrafalgar Group Jul 23–25, 2020 1,129 (LV) ± 2.8% 44%49% 2% - 3% 2%Public Policy Polling/GiffordsPublic Policy Polling/Giffords Jul 22–23, 20201,218 (V)± 3.2%42%52% - - –6%FOX NewsFOX News Jul 18–20, 2020 776 (RV) ± 3.5% 38%51% - - 6% 6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020860 (LV) –42%57% - - –1%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing Jun 19, 2020 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42%58% - - – –Morning Consult May 27– Jun 5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4%45%48% - - – –Harper Polling/Jason LewisMay 26–28, 2020510 (LV) –42%50% – – –8%Morning ConsultMay 17–26, 2020647 (LV) –42%49% - - – –Mason-Dixon/StarTribune/MPR News/KARE 11Mason-Dixon/StarTribune/MPR News/KARE 11 May 18–20, 2020 800 (RV) ± 3.5%44%49% - - –7%Morning Consult May 7–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4%38%55% - - – –Mason-Dixon/StarTribuneMason-Dixon/StarTribune Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 38%50% - - – 12%Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AmyKlobuchar (DFL) Other UndecidedMason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribuneMason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 55% – 7%DFM Research Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 35% 52% 7% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (DFL) Other UndecidedMason-Dixon/StarTribune Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40%49% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (DFL) Other UndecidedMason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40%51% – 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat UndecidedKFF/Cook Political ReportKFF/Cook Political ReportSep 23 – Oct 15, 2019958 (RV) ± 4%28%41%21%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingOct 4–6, 20191,175 (V) –42%52%6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Jun 15–16, 2018 717 (V) – 41% 51% 8%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat HowardSchultz (I) UndecidedDFM Research Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 35% 45% 6% 15%

Results

By county