The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump and running mate Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.
Trump won Montana 56.92% to 40.55%, a margin of 16.37%, down from the 20.42% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likely red state. Montana has not been won by a Democrat since 1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in 1996 and in 2008.
Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flip Blaine County, a bellwether that is home to Fort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties of Lewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extent Roosevelt, which holds most of Fort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widened Hillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt or Hill county.
Primary elections The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.
Democratic primary
Libertarian nominee The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 10, 2020Inside ElectionsSeptember 4, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallJuly 14, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsAugust 16, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPRAugust 3, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538November 2, 2020
Polling Graphical summary
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 22–28, 2020November 3, 202044.8%50.2%5.0%Trump +5.4FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202045.4%49.8%4.8%Trump +4.4Average45.1%50.0%4.9%Trump +4.9
Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenOtherUndecidedChange ResearchOct 29 – Nov 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%2%1%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,021 (LV)± 4%52%46% – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20201,471 (LV)± 4.0%50%48% – – –Public Policy Polling/Protect Our CareOct 26–27, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%49%47% – –3%Montana State University BillingsOct 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%52%45%1% –2%Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%49%43% 3%2%3%Strategies 360/NBCMTOct 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%43% 3% – 4%RMG Research/PoliticalIQOct 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%2%4%0%48%48%2%4%0%52%44%2%4%0%Public Policy PollingOct 9–10, 2020798 (V)± 3.5%52%46% -2%0%Emerson CollegeOct 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 3.7%56%44% – – –Data For Progress (D)Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020737 (LV)± 3.6%49%43% 3%0%5%Montana State University BozemanSep 14 – Oct 2, 20201,607 (LV)± 3.9%51%44% –4%2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020480 (LV) –57%41% – –2%Siena College/NYT UpshotSep 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%49%42% 2%2%5%Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARPAug 30 – Sep 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%43% –0%6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020562 (LV) –52%46% – –1%Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC Aug 22–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9%48% 44% – – 7%Emerson CollegeJul 31 – Aug 2, 2020584 (LV)± 4.0%54%46% – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020527 (LV) –53%44% – –3%Public Policy Polling/AFSCMEJul 23–24, 2020917 (V) –50%45% – – 5%Spry Strategies/American Principles ProjectJul 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%52%42% – –6%Civiqs/Daily Kos Jul 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2%49%45% -5%1%Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter Jul 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8%51% 42% – – 7%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020166 (LV) –57%41% – –2%University of Montana Jun 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3%52% 38% – – 10%Montana State University BozemanApr 10–27, 2020459 (LV) ± 4.6%45%40% –11%5% The Progress Campaign (D) Apr 14–21, 2020 1,712 (RV) ± 4.6%51%42% – –7%University of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% – – 10%University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 47% – – –Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) UndecidedUniversity of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 31% 15%
Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) SteveBullock (D)University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 48% 52% Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) UndecidedUniversity of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 35% 13%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) KamalaHarris (D)University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 55% 45%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AmyKlobuchar (D) UndecidedUniversity of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53% 31% 15%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) UndecidedUniversity of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% 9%University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% –
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) UndecidedUniversity of Montana Feb 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 33% 10%University of Montana Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 54% 46% –Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 39% 17%
Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat (D) UndecidedPublic Policy PollingMar 12–13, 2020903 (V)± 3.3%52%44%4%
with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin JoeBiden (D) BernieSanders (D) DonaldTrump (R) OtherUniversity of MontanaFeb 21 – Mar 1, 2019293 (RV)± 5.72%14.7%8.4%40%36.8%
Electoral slates These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: Donald Trump and Mike PenceRepublican Party Joe Biden and Kamala HarrisDemocratic Party Jo Jorgensen and Spike CohenLibertarian Party Thelma BakerBecky StocktonBrad Tschida Jean Lemire DahlmanKatie SullivanCora Neumann Francis WendtJacob KitsonCher Kitson
Results
By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanJoe BidenDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Beaverhead3,92369.30%1,60828.40%1302.30%2,31540.89%5,661Big Horn2,20746.10%2,49152.04%891.86%-284-5.93%4,787Blaine1,46947.11%1,58950.96%601.92%-120-3.85%3,118Broadwater3,17377.45%83520.38%892.17%2,33857.07%4,097Carbon4,46863.35%2,42134.33%1642.33%2,04729.02%7,053Carter77589.70%748.56%151.74%70181.13%864Cascade23,31558.46%15,45638.75%1,1142.79%7,85919.70%39,885Chouteau1,89163.78%99133.42%832.80%90030.35%2,965Custer4,20571.76%1,51425.84%1412.41%2,69145.92%5,860Daniels79978.80%19519.23%201.97%60459.57%1,014Dawson3,75877.89%96219.94%1052.18%2,79657.95%4,825Deer Lodge2,18644.69%2,56252.38%1432.92%-376-7.69%4,891Fallon1,37587.30%17210.92%281.78%1,20376.38%1,575Fergus4,86974.83%1,49622.99%1422.18%3,37351.84%6,507Flathead38,32163.93%20,27433.82%1,3432.24%18,04730.11%59,938Gallatin31,69644.65%37,04452.18%2,2483.17%-5,348-7.53%70,988Garfield76493.97%415.04%80.98%72388.93%813Glacier1,88433.54%3,61064.27%1232.19%-1,726-30.73%5,617Golden Valley41482.31%7815.51%112.19%33666.80%503Granite1,41967.51%63830.35%452.14%78137.16%2,102Hill3,95755.10%2,98141.51%2443.40%97613.59%7,182Jefferson5,34565.57%2,62532.20%1812.22%2,72033.37%8,151Judith Basin1,04077.38%27520.46%292.16%76556.92%1,344Lake9,32256.07%6,91641.60%3882.33%2,40614.47%16,626Lewis and Clark21,40950.64%19,74346.70%1,1212.65%1,6663.94%42,273Liberty82175.81%24922.99%131.20%57252.82%1,083Lincoln8,67273.81%2,83524.13%2422.06%5,83749.68%11,749Madison4,19168.85%1,77129.09%1252.05%2,42039.76%6,087McCone95684.75%15513.74%171.51%80171.01%1,128Meagher83375.05%25823.24%191.71%57551.80%1,110Mineral1,82871.32%68626.77%491.91%1,14244.56%2,563Missoula26,34736.85%43,35760.64%1,7952.51%-17,010-23.79%71,499Musselshell2,42384.10%41314.34%451.56%2,01069.77%2,881Park6,02552.08%5,28045.64%2642.28%7456.44%11,569Petroleum29885.63%3911.21%113.16%25974.43%348Phillips1,93681.28%41617.46%301.26%1,52063.81%2,382Pondera2,03167.81%90330.15%612.04%1,12837.66%2,995Powder River97085.39%15413.56%121.06%81671.83%1,136Powell2,35574.08%75223.66%722.26%1,60350.42%3,179Prairie60381.05%12616.94%152.02%47764.11%744Ravalli19,11467.05%8,76330.74%6302.21%10,35136.31%28,507Richland4,80082.79%87515.09%1232.12%3,92567.70%5,798Roosevelt1,99649.69%1,91047.55%1112.76%862.14%4,017Rosebud2,48665.89%1,19931.78%882.33%1,28734.11%3,773Sanders5,66074.25%1,82023.88%1431.88%3,84050.37%7,623Sheridan1,40369.11%57428.28%532.61%82940.84%2,030Silver Bow7,74541.51%10,39255.70%5212.79%-2,647-14.19%18,658Stillwater4,46277.95%1,15620.20%1061.85%3,30657.76%5,724Sweet Grass1,84075.22%54922.44%572.33%1,29152.78%2,446Teton2,60870.89%1,00727.37%641.74%1,60143.52%3,679Toole1,59675.32%46722.04%562.64%1,12953.28%2,119Treasure37381.09%7816.96%91.96%29564.13%460Valley3,13573.57%1,03024.17%962.25%2,10549.40%4,261Wheatland82377.06%22521.07%201.87%59855.99%1,068Wibaux51686.29%7712.88%50.84%43973.41%598Yellowstone50,77260.57%30,67936.60%2,3702.83%20,09323.97%83,821Totals343,60256.92%244,78640.55%15,2862.53%98,81616.37%603,674
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
By congressional district Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.
Analysis Montana, a sparsely populated state straddling the Mountain and Plains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from 1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968, 2000, 2004, 2012, and 2016. Since 1964, it has voted Democratic only in 1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in 1976, 1988, 1996, and 2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.