2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominees, incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominees, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

New Hampshire is by far the most fiscally conservative state in New England, and its population has a strong disdain for taxes, historically giving Republicans an edge in its state office elections. However, like the rest of the region, it is very liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, and thus the Democratic Party has dominated in its federal elections in recent years. Although the state came extremely close to voting for Trump in 2016, polls throughout the 2020 campaign showed a clear Biden lead, and prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was favored to win.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering the votes of 58% of white women, and 69% of unmarried women. Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions, a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.

Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Despite that, on the same ballot, incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won his third term with more than 65% of the vote, and Republicans regained control of both of New Hampshire's state legislative chambers and the state's Executive Council. Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.

Primary elections The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.

Libertarian primary

General election

Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPNiskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.CNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC News538

Polling Graphical summary

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 14–29, 2020November 3, 202053.4%42.4%4.2%Biden +11.0FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.9%42.8%3.3%Biden +11.1Average53.7%42.6%3.8%Biden +11.1

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,013 (LV)± 4.5%45%54% - – –American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Oct 26–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 39%58% 1% – 2%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Oct 24–28, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 45%53% 1% 1% 1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20201,791 (LV) –44%55% - – –Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Oct 23–26, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 44%52% 2% – 2%YouGov/UMass AmherstYouGov/UMass Amherst Oct 16–26, 2020 757 (LV) ± 4.5% 43%53% 2% 1% 2%University of New HampshireUniversity of New HampshireOct 9–12, 2020899 (LV)± 3.3%43%55%0%0%2%Suffolk University/Boston GlobeSuffolk University/Boston Globe Oct 8–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41%51% 2% 3% 5%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Oct 1–4, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 2.9% 41%53% - 4% 2%Emerson CollegeEmerson College Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.6% 45%53% - 2% –SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020637 (LV) –43%55% - –2%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Sep 25–28, 2020 600 (LV)± 4%44%53%1% –2%University of New HampshireUniversity of New HampshireSep 24–28, 2020972 (LV)± 3.1%44%53%1%0%3%Pulse Opinion Research/Center for American GreatnessPulse Opinion Research/Center for American GreatnessSep 23–25, 2020850 (LV)± 4%42%56% - 1% 1%YouGov/UMass LowellYouGov/UMass LowellSep 17–25, 2020657 (LV)± 4.6%44%52%1%2%1%44%53% -0%1%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotSep 8–11, 2020445 (LV)± 5.5%42%45% 4%2%7%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020444 (LV) –39%60% - –1%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm CollegeAug 15–17, 20201,042 (RV)± 3.0%43%51% - 4% 2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020574 (LV) –39%60% - –2%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Jul 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.3%40%53% -4%3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020191 (LV) –39%61% - –1%University of New Hampshire Jun 18–22, 2020 936 (LV) –39%52% -6%3%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3%42%49% -5%3%University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 790 (LV) –46%44% -5%5%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Apr 23–27, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.4%42%50% -2%7%University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1%46% 44% - 8% 2%AtlasIntelAtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3%46% 44% - 11% –McLaughlin & Associates/NH JournalMcLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9%49% 45% - – –Marist College/NBC NewsMarist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43%51% - 2% 5%Emerson CollegeEmerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48%52% - – – 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% - – 13%Saint Anselm CollegeSaint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 43%51% - – 6%Emerson CollegeEmerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55% - – –Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 53% - – 7%Emerson CollegeEmerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55% - – –American Research GroupAmerican Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 53% - – 8%Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) Other UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 46% 6% 1%AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3%47% 44% 9% –McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9%48% 45% – –Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43%51% 2% 4%Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48%52% – – 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 49% – 9%Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46%49% – 6%Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 53% – –Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 51% – 8%Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55% – –Praecones AnalyticaPraecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% – 5%American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 5%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) Other UndecidedAtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3%46.8% 40.5% – 12.7%Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 44%48% 2% 5%Inside SourcesInside Sources Jan 16–21, 2020 593 (RV) – 41%54% – 5%Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8%51% 49% – –Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% – 10%Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46%47% – 7%Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% – 7%Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% – –Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% – 5%American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% – 9%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) Other UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 561 (LV) ± 4.1%47% 33% 16% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtegieg (D) Other UndecidedUniversity of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1% 42%48% 7% 3%AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 45.3%46.1% – 8.6%Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 41%51% 1% 6%Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 41%48% – –Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 48% – 11%Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 42%49% – 9%Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 49% – 9%

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AndrewYang (D) UndecidedEmerson College November 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8%51% 49% –Emerson College November 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% 12%Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% –

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) CoryBooker (D) UndecidedEmerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 ± 3.2% 49% 51% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) KamalaHarris (D) UndecidedEmerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% –Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 47% 9%Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BetoO'Rourke (D) UndecidedPraecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 48% 12%

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) HowardSchultz (I) UndecidedEmerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 48% 10% –

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) HowardSchultz (I) UndecidedEmerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 44% 12% –

with John Kasich and Joe Biden Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin JohnKasich (R) JoeBiden (D) UndecidedAmerican Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%

with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin JohnKasich (R) ElizabethWarren (D) UndecidedAmerican Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 37% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat Other UndecidedRKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10 Jan 29-Feb 1, 2020 892 (V) – 36%49% 9% 7%Praecones AnalyticaPraecones Analytica Aug 13–15, 2018 626 (RV) ± 5.4% 38% 49% – 13%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat Genericthird party UndecidedSuffolk UniversitySuffolk University Apr 25–28, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 43% 6% 11%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent