The 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nevada has six votes in the Electoral College.
Throughout the campaign, polls of the state generally showed a Biden lead, albeit with a sometimes slender margin. Before polling day, most news organizations considered that Nevada was leaning towards Biden. Biden carried Nevada by 2.39%, a slightly smaller margin than Hillary Clinton's 2.42% in 2016, making it one of six states (along with Washington DC) in which Trump improved on his 2016 margin, likely due to Trump's improvements with Hispanic voters in 2020 compared to 2016. Biden's somewhat narrow victory in Nevada also made it his weakest victory in a state that Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, as he carried all other such states by more than 7%.
Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural and sparsely populated, and voted heavily for Trump. However, Biden won the two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, which make up almost 89% of Nevada's population. The state's three largest cities are located in these counties: Las Vegas and Henderson in the former, and Reno in the latter. His strength in these areas was likely due to high presence of minority and union voters: Biden's strength came from heavy turnout among culinary unions in populous Clark County, anchored by Las Vegas. Biden had the backing of Culinary Union Local 226, based on right-to-work standards. Additionally, Biden was able to win about 43% and 34% of votes in the tourism-heavy Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County respectively, sealing his victory in the state. Nevada weighed in for this election as 2.1% more Republican than the nation-at-large.
Caucuses
Canceled Republican caucuses
On September 7, 2019, the Nevada Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively. In August 2019, the Associated Press quoted the state party spokesman, Keith Schipper, who stated it "isn't about any kind of conspiracy theory about protecting the president... He's going to be the nominee... This is about protecting resources to make sure that the president wins in Nevada and that Republicans up and down the ballot win in 2020."
In lieu of conducting their caucuses, the state party's governing central committee instead formally held an Alternative Presidential Preference Poll on February 22, 2020, voting by acclamation to officially bind all 25 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.
Democratic caucuses
General election
Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPNiskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.CNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC News538
Polling Graphical summary
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 16–31, 2020November 1, 202049.4%44.4%6.2%Biden +5.0Real Clear PoliticsOctober 23 – November 2, 2020November 1, 202048.7%46.3%5.0%Biden +2.4FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.7%44.4%5.9%Biden +5.3Average49.3%45.0%5.7%Biden +4.3
Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize MarginDonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenOtherUndecidedTrafalgar GroupOct 31 – Nov 2, 20201,024 (LV)± 2.98%49%48%1%1%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,366 (LV)± 3%49%49% - – –Data for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,442 (LV)± 2.6%44%51%3%2% –Emerson CollegeOct 29–31, 2020720 (LV)± 3.6%47%49% -4% –Trafalgar GroupOct 28–29, 20201,024 (LV)± 2.98%47%49%2%1%1%Gravis MarketingOct 27–28, 2020688 (LV)± 3.7%44%50% – –6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,333 (LV) –49%50% - – –Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 23–26, 2020809 (LV)± 3.8%43%49%3%2%4%BUSR/University of NevadaOct 16–21,Oct 23, 2020809 (LV)± 4%41%50% – – –Civiqs/Daily KosOct 17–20, 2020712 (LV)± 5.3%43%52% -3%1%WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARPOct 7–11, 2020512 (LV)± 4.4% 42%44% 3%5%6%YouGov/CBSOct 6–9, 20201,036 (LV)± 4.1%46%52% -2%0%Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 2–6, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%42%48%3%1%6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,239 (LV) –47%51% - -2%Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PACSep 23–25, 2020750 (LV) –48%49% -2%1%Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSRSep 10–25, 2020641 (LV)± 4%41%46% -7%6%Fox NewsSep 20–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3% 41%52% 3% 2% 2% 911 (RV) ± 3% 40%50% 3% 3% 4%ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D) Sep 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%47% – – –Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 8–10, 2020 462 (LV) ± 5.3% 42%46% 3% 1% 7%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020998 (LV) –49%50% - –1%Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR Aug 20–30, 2020 682 (LV) ± 4% 39%44% – 5% 12%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,021 (LV) –52%47% - -2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020609 (LV) –49%50% - -1%ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)Apr 27–30, 2020763 (LV)± 3.6%45%49% – – –AtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41%44% – 15% –FOX News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 39%47% – 9% 4%FOX News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40%47% – 9% 4%Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 49% – – –Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 49% – – 8%Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 52% – – –Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) Other UndecidedAtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41%52% 7% –FOX News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 41%46% 8% 4%FOX News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40%47% 9% 4%Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 (RV) ± 2.9%50%50% – –Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% – 8%Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49% – –
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) Other UndecidedAtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41%48% 12% -FOX News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 42%43% 10% 5%FOX News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 41%44% 10% 5%Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 49% – –Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 46% – 7%Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46% – –
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) Other UndecidedAtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 38%49% 14% -FOX News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 40%41% 12% 7%FOX News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 41% 9% 6%Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 42% – 12%Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48% – –
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) CoryBooker (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 44% 10%
Donald Trump vs. Marianne Williamson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MarianneWilliamson (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 40% 12%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) KamalaHarris (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2%45%45% 11%Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49% –
Donald Trump vs Generic Democrat vs Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) GenericDemocrat HowardSchultz (I) UndecidedDFM Research Jan 28–31, 2019 500 (V) ± 4.4% 38% 45% 6% 11%
Results
By county County Joe BidenDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Carson City 12,735 42.82% 16,113 54.18% 891 3.00% -3,378 -11.36% 29,739 Churchill 3,051 23.67% 9,372 72.71% 467 3.62% -6,321 -49.04% 12,890 Clark 521,852 53.66% 430,930 44.31% 19,728 2.03% 90,922 9.35% 972,510 Douglas 11,571 33.91% 21,630 63.38% 924 2.71% -10,059 -29.47% 34,125 Elko 4,557 20.74% 16,741 76.21% 669 3.05% -12,184 -55.47% 21,967 Esmeralda 74 15.20% 400 82.14% 13 2.66% -326 -66.94% 487 Eureka 105 10.32% 895 88.00% 17 1.68% -790 -77.68% 1,017 Humboldt 1,689 21.73% 5,877 75.63% 205 2.64% -4,188 -53.90% 7,771 Lander 496 17.94% 2,198 79.49% 71 2.57% -1,702 -61.55% 2,765 Lincoln 330 13.49% 2,067 84.51% 49 2.00% -1,737 -71.02% 2,446 Lyon 8,473 28.02% 20,914 69.16% 851 2.82% -12,441 -41.14% 30,238 Mineral 829 35.50% 1,423 60.94% 83 3.56% -594 -25.44% 2,335 Nye 7,288 28.72% 17,528 69.07% 562 2.21% -10,240 -40.35% 25,378 Pershing 547 23.58% 1,731 74.61% 42 1.81% -1,184 -51.03% 2,320 Storey 902 31.35% 1,908 66.32% 67 2.33% -1,096 -34.97% 2,877 Washoe 128,128 50.82% 116,760 46.31% 7,254 2.87% 11,368 4.51% 252,142 White Pine 859 19.66% 3,403 77.89% 107 2.45% -2,544 -58.23% 4,369Totals703,48650.06%669,89047.67%32,0002.27%33,5962.39%1,405,376
By congressional district Biden won three of the state's four congressional districts.
District Trump Biden Representative 36% 61%Dina Titus 54% 44%Mark Amodei 48.9% 49.1%Susie Lee 47% 51%Steven Horsford
Analysis Given the outcome of the election in other states, Nevada became a crucial swing state to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would win the 2020 presidential election. With Biden's win, this would mark the fourth presidential election in a row that Nevada has voted Democratic, although this is the first time since the beginning of the Democratic winning streak in Nevada that the state was more Republican than the nation, the last time being 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush carried the state by 2.6% and won the national popular vote by 2.4%. Nevada was the state that came closest to flipping from blue to red in 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic in particular had a strong effect on Nevada, as the pandemic negatively affected gambling and tourism, which the state's economy relies on. 22% of voters regarded the pandemic as the most important issue of the election, and these voters broke for Biden by 73 points.
Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and have voted Republican since 1980. As a whole, the rural counties outside of Las Vegas and Reno made up much of Trump's total. The state's two most populous counties, Clark County and Washoe County, which contain over 89% of the state's population, broke for Biden. Trump was able to narrow the Democratic margin in Clark to 9.35%, compared to 10.71% in 2016, winning 44.31% of the vote in the county. Outside of Clark and Reno, Biden's strongest performances would be in the Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County; while these areas are more rural and Republican-leaning, they are also reliant on both the gambling and tourism industries. Biden hit nearly 43% in Carson City, and received 33% of the vote in Douglas County—this totaled to more than 24,000 votes, effectively clinching the state for Biden.