The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Biden easily emerged victorious in the Green Mountain State 66.09% to 30.67%, a margin of 35.4%. This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956, when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%. Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote; with an improvement of 9% in the margin of victory, this marked the strongest leftward shift any state experienced in 2020. Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history, as well as the third-largest Democratic margin of victory. Trump carried only one county, sparsely populated Essex bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.

Background Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.

After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012, and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

Primary elections Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so. Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportSeptember 10, 2020Inside ElectionsSeptember 4, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallJuly 14, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsAugust 16, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPRAugust 3, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538September 9, 2020

Polling Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202066.5%27.8%5.7%Biden +38.7

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 2020906 (LV)± 4.5%26%71% - - – –co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governorco/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. GovernorOct 19–29, 2020584 (LV)± 4.05%32%62% - - –6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20201,167 (LV) –29%69% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020427 (LV) –34%64% - - –2%Braun Research/VPRBraun Research/VPRSep 3–15, 2020582 (LV)± 4%32%56% - -8%3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020236 (LV) –29%70% - - –0%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020368 (LV) –27%71% - - –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020113 (LV) –20%75% - - –5%

Results

By county County Joe BidenDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Addison 14,967 67.96% 6,292 28.57% 136 3.47% 8,675 39.39% 22,022 Bennington 12,705 62.09% 7,114 34.77% 643 3.14% 5,591 27.32% 20,462 Caledonia 9,011 55.73% 6,551 40.52% 607 3.75% 2,460 15.21% 16,169 Chittenden 74,961 75.78% 21,017 21.25% 2,937 2.97% 53,944 54.53% 98,915 Essex 1,405 42.73% 1,773 53.92% 110 3.35% -368 -11.19% 3,288 Franklin 13,611 52.69% 11,274 43.65% 945 3.66% 2,337 9.04% 25,830 Grand Isle 2,905 59.88% 1,810 37.31% 763 2.81% 1,095 22.57% 4,851 Lamoille 10,240 68.66% 4,163 27.91% 512 3.43% 6,077 40.75% 14,915 Orange 10,304 60.18% 6,187 36.13% 631 3.69% 4,117 24.05% 17,122 Orleans 7,147 50.70% 6,512 46.20% 437 3.10% 635 4.50% 14,096 Rutland 18,230 53.66% 14,672 43.19% 1,068 3.15% 3,558 10.47% 33,970 Washington 25,191 71.35% 8,928 25.29% 1,188 3.36% 16,263 46.06% 35,307 Windham 18,767 72.08% 6,440 24.74% 828 3.18% 12,327 47.34% 26,035 Windsor 23,376 67.86% 9,971 28.95% 1,099 3.19% 13,405 38.91% 34,446Totals242,82066.09%112,70430.67%11,9043.24%130,11635.42%367,428

By congressional district Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results. District Trump Biden RepresentativeAt-large 30.67% 66.09%Peter Welch

Notes

Partisan clients

See also United States presidential elections in Vermont 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections

References

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)