2020 United States presidential election in Utah

The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Utah had six electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, all leading news organizations projected Utah as leaning towards Trump, or a safe red state. Throughout the campaign, Trump did not exceed 60% in a single poll conducted. Some polls even showed the president leading by single digits against Biden, likely indicating a closer than normal contest in this traditionally Republican stronghold. In past elections, Utah has often given massive support to Republican candidates, including having awarded George W. Bush and Mitt Romney over 70% of the vote in 2004 and 2012, respectively.

In 2020, Trump won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to the performance of past Republican nominees. He performed strongly in rural areas, as well as in some larger counties like Utah (Provo), Davis (Farmington), and Weber (Ogden). Trump improved over his 45.5% plurality win in 2016, due in part to the lack of a strong third-party presence, as Evan McMullin had earned 21.5% of the vote in 2016 but did not run in 2020; he endorsed Biden. The election was far more of a two-party contest in 2020, with third parties receiving 4.2% of the vote, compared to 27% in 2016. Despite this, the Associated Press reported a less partisan and more cooperative cultural environment in Utah compared to other states during the election.

With no major third-party challenges, Trump improved his vote share by 13% while Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 results by 10.3 percentage points. Biden's improvement garnered him the highest percentage by a Democratic presidential nominee in Utah since Lyndon Johnson won with 54.9% of the vote in 1964, as Biden overtook the vote shares of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama in 2008, and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the only other Democratic nominees to surpass a third of the state's vote since 1964). Biden's greatest support came from Salt Lake County, the state's most populous county, where he won 53.7%, the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson in 1964. Biden also won Summit County (Park City), which, along with Salt Lake, was one of two counties in the state Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016 (and the only one where she had won a majority); and he flipped Grand County (Moab), which had voted Democratic in 1992 and 2008.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Utah came from Mormons. 53% of voters identified as Mormons, and Trump received 72% of their votes. Trump also won the suburban areas, which make up 57% of the state, with 54% of the vote.

Utah was one of the seven states (along with Arkansas, Nevada, California, Florida, Illinois, and Hawaii) as well as the District of Columbia, in which Trump's share of the vote increased from 2016.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Utah politicians Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney both declined to run against Trump.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2020Inside ElectionsNovember 3, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2020PoliticoNovember 3, 2020RCPNovember 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.November 3, 2020CNNNovember 3, 2020The EconomistNovember 3, 2020CBS NewsNovember 3, 2020270towinNovember 3, 2020ABC NewsNovember 3, 2020NPRNovember 3, 2020NBC NewsNovember 3, 2020538November 3, 2020

Polling Graphical summary

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 23–31, 2020November 3, 202041.0%50.5%8.5%Trump +9.5FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.1%51.9%6.0%Trump +9.8Average41.6%51.2%7.2%Trump +9.6

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize MarginDonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,586 (LV)± 3.5%55%43% – – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20202,783 (LV) –55%43% – – – –Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake TribuneY2 Analytics/Salt Lake TribuneOct 15–24, 2020660 (LV)± 3.8%51%44% – –5% –RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of PoliticsRMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of PoliticsOct 12–17, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%50%38%3%0%1%7%Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake TribuneY2 Analytics/Salt Lake TribuneSep 26 – Oct 4, 20201,214 (LV)± 2.8%50%40% – –10%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,192 (LV) –56%42% – – –2%RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of PoliticsRMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of PoliticsSep 7–12, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%53%35%5%0%1%6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020893 (LV) –57%41% – – –2%RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsRMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJul 27 – Aug 1, 20201,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%31%3%1%4%11%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,037 (LV) –58%40% – – –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020412 (LV) –57%41% – – –1%Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2May 9–15, 20201,099 (LV)± 3%44%41%––9%5%Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsApr 15–21, 2020964 (RV)± 3.2%51%32%––8%9%Y2 AnalyticsY2 AnalyticsMar 21–30, 20201,266 (RV)± 2.8%46%41%––7%5%Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsFeb 24 – Mar 1, 20201,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%33%––8%8%Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%49%31%––13%7%Y2 AnalyticsY2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019149 (RV) –36%35%––14%5%with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)MichaelBloomberg (D)OtherUndecidedScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%45%32%11%13%

with Donald Trump and Cory Booker Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)CoryBooker (D)OtherUndecidedY2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019153 (RV) –31%43%23%3%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)PeteButtigieg (D)OtherUndecidedScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%48%25%13%14%Y2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019144 (RV) –48%28%15%9%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)KamalaHarris (D)OtherUndecidedY2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019144 (RV) –48%33%15%5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)AmyKlobuchar (D)OtherUndecidedScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%49%23%14%14%

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)BetoO'Rourke (D)OtherUndecidedY2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019140 (RV) –41%27%25%7%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)BernieSanders (D)OtherUndecidedScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsFeb 24 – Mar 1, 20201,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%33%9%7%Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%50%31%13%6%Y2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019153 (RV) –38%44%14%5%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)ElizabethWarren (D)OtherUndecidedScott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsFeb 24 – Mar 1, 20201,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%28%12%10%Scott Rasmussen/Deseret NewsJan 15–22, 20201,017 (RV)± 3.1%50%28%12%10%Y2 AnalyticsJul 31 – Aug 6, 2019144 (RV) –39%36%19%6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)GenericDemocratOtherUndecidedY2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 NewsY2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 NewsJan 16–30, 20202,174 (LV) –47%31%12%10%Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 NewsSep 25 – Oct 8, 2019944 (LV) –41%33%16%10%Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 NewsY2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV 2 NewsJun 27 – Jul 17, 20192,464 (LV) –38%30%18%14%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginDonaldTrump (R)GenericOpponentUndecidedDan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceDan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceFeb 28 – Mar 11, 2020798 (LV)± 3.47%52%45%3%Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceDan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceOct 3–10, 2019600 (LV)± 4%50%46%4%Dan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceDan Jones & Associates/Salt Lake Chamber of CommerceJun 11 – Jul 1, 2019801 (LV) –45%52%4%

Results

By county

CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanJoe BidenDemocratic Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total # % # % # % # %Beaver2,69586.94%35711.52%481.55%2,33875.42%3,100Box Elder21,54879.73%4,47316.55%1,0063.72%17,07563.18%27,027Cache38,03266.06%16,65028.92%2,8895.02%21,38237.14%57,571Carbon6,69371.44%2,39225.53%2843.03%4,30145.91%9,369Daggett49680.13%11117.93%121.94%38562.20%619Davis104,13561.29%57,41133.79%8,3494.91%46,72427.50%169,895Duchesne7,51388.14%8439.89%1681.97%6,67078.25%8,524Emery4,20786.47%57211.76%861.77%3,63574.72%4,865Garfield2,15878.99%51418.81%602.20%1,64460.18%2,732Grand2,24843.36%2,80654.12%1312.53%-558-10.76%5,185Iron18,98976.29%4,89219.65%1,0094.05%14,09756.64%24,890Juab5,08786.72%64511.00%1342.28%4,44275.72%5,866Kane2,99871.72%1,08325.91%992.37%1,91545.81%4,180Millard5,40487.73%62410.13%1322.14%4,78077.60%6,160Morgan5,18179.56%1,08616.68%2453.76%4,09562.88%6,512Piute77388.75%869.87%121.38%68778.87%871Rich1,15784.89%18013.21%261.91%97771.68%1,363Salt Lake230,17442.53%289,90653.57%21,0953.90%-59,732-11.04%541,175San Juan3,53551.40%3,11345.26%2303.34%4226.14%6,878Sanpete10,45982.80%1,79414.20%3782.99%8,66568.60%12,631Sevier9,05287.35%1,08410.46%2272.19%7,96876.89%10,363Summit10,25239.30%15,24458.43%5922.27%-4,992-19.14%26,088Tooele21,01466.67%8,94328.37%1,5614.95%12,07138.30%31,518Uintah13,26186.63%1,66310.86%3832.50%11,59875.77%15,307Utah192,81267.78%76,03326.73%15,6355.50%116,77941.05%284,480Wasatch10,79561.40%6,18735.19%5993.41%4,60826.21%17,581Washington67,29474.38%20,53022.69%2,6522.93%46,76451.69%90,476Wayne1,22975.82%36522.52%271.67%86453.30%1,621Weber65,94959.18%40,69536.52%4,7984.31%25,25422.66%111,442Totals865,14058.13%560,28237.65%62,8674.22%304,85820.48%1,488,289

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Grand (largest municipality: Moab)

By congressional district Trump won all four congressional districts. District Trump Biden Representative64.2% 31.6%Rob BishopBlake Moore 56.1% 40.2%Chris Stewart 60.3% 35.2%John Curtis52.4% 43.3%Ben McAdamsBurgess Owens

See also United States presidential elections in Utah Presidency of Joe Biden 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections

Notes

References

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)