2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

A presidential election was held in Indiana on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate California senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state. On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likely red state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.

This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884 to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County.

Biden flipped Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette and Purdue University, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since 1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden also became the first Democrat since FDR in 1944 to win without carrying traditionally Democratic Perry County in Southern Indiana. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976.

Primary elections The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

Democratic primary

Libertarian nominee The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.

2020 Indiana Green presidential primary Candidate Votes % Delegates Howie Hawkins 27 43.50 1.5 Jesse Ventura (not a candidate) 19 30.65 1 Dario Hunter 16 25.89 1 Uncommitted 40 44.14 0.5 Total 111 100.00 4

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportOctober 6, 2020Inside ElectionsOctober 6, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 6, 2020PoliticoOctober 6, 2020RCPOctober 6, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.October 6, 2020CNNOctober 6, 2020The EconomistOctober 6, 2020CBS NewsOctober 6, 2020270towinOctober 6, 2020ABC NewsOctober 6, 2020NPROctober 6, 2020NBC NewsOctober 6, 2020538October 6, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 14 - November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%51.0%7.0%Trump +9.0FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202042.0%52.9%5.1%Trump +10.8

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,729 (LV)± 2.5%54%44% – – –SwayableOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020264 (LV)± 7.8%55%43%2% – –Morning ConsultOct 22–31, 20201,147 (LV)± 3%53%42% – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20204,734 (LV) –55%43% – – –SwayableOct 23–26, 2020301 (LV)± 7.4%53%42%5% – –Ragnar Research (R)Ragnar Research (R)Oct 18–21, 2020529 (LV)± 4%48%40%5% –7%SurveyUSA/Election TwitterOct 10–13, 2020527 (LV) ± 5.2%49%42% –3%6%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,367 (LV) –53%45%–––Change Research/IndyPolitics Sep 3–7, 2020 1,033 (LV) ± 3.1%53% 39% 5%–3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,672 (LV) –55%43%–––Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5%55% 38%–––SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20202,175 (LV) –56%43%–––SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020929 (LV) –57%40%–––Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General May 21–23, 2020 894 (LV) ± 3.3%49% 39%–––Indy Politics/Change Research Apr 10–13, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 52% 39%– 5% 3%Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) UndecidedZogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 17%

Results

By county

CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanJoe BidenDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams10,68675.05%3,23622.73%2872.0%7,45052.43%14,209Allen92,08354.31%73,18943.16%4,2882.53%18,89411.15%169,560Bartholomew22,41061.74%12,93435.63%9562.63%9,47626.11%36,300Benton3,00773.07%1,00924.52%992.41%1,99848.55%4,115Blackford3,84171.69%1,37625.68%1412.63%2,46546.01%5,358Boone22,35157.80%15,24439.42%1,0732.78%7,10718.38%38,668Brown5,77764.32%3,03633.80%1681.88%2,74130.52%8,981Carroll7,08674.48%2,22423.38%2042.14%4,86251.10%9,514Cass10,55269.43%4,30428.32%3422.25%6,24841.11%15,198Clark33,66857.99%23,09339.78%1,2962.23%10,57518.21%58,057Clay9,49977.35%2,55220.78%2201.87%6,94756.57%12,281Clinton9,33472.02%3,36125.93%2662.05%5,97346.09%12,961Crawford3,48370.39%1,35527.38%1102.23%2,12843.01%4,948Daviess9,57679.99%2,16918.12%2261.89%7,40761.87%11,971Dearborn19,52876.78%5,44621.41%4601.81%14,08255.37%25,434Decatur9,57577.82%2,43919.82%2902.36%7,13658.00%12,304DeKalb14,23772.43%4,96625.26%4532.31%9,27147.17%19,656Delaware26,82755.49%20,47442.35%1,0412.16%6,35313.14%48,342Dubois15,03368.94%6,29228.85%4812.21%8,74140.09%21,806Elkhart46,97262.95%26,10834.99%1,5382.06%20,86427.96%74,618Fayette7,75576.43%2,23722.05%1541.52%5,51854.38%10,146Floyd23,40055.85%17,51141.79%9882.36%5,88914.06%41,899Fountain6,15476.99%1,62920.38%2102.63%4,52556.61%7,993Franklin9,69180.64%2,13717.78%1901.58%7,55462.86%12,018Fulton6,69473.18%2,28024.93%1731.89%4,41448.25%9,147Gibson11,81773.12%4,02324.89%3211.99%7,79448.23%16,161Grant18,54368.10%8,01529.43%6722.47%10,52838.67%27,230Greene11,10374.98%3,38922.89%3152.13%7,71452.09%14,807Hamilton101,58752.21%88,39045.43%4,6002.36%13,1976.78%194,577Hancock28,99667.40%12,89529.97%1,1292.63%16,10137.43%43,020Harrison14,56571.98%5,34326.40%3281.62%9,22245.58%20,236Hendricks53,80260.65%32,60436.76%2,2992.59%21,19823.89%88,705Henry15,04371.43%5,54426.32%4742.25%9,49945.11%21,061Howard26,44965.10%13,30332.74%8782.16%13,14632.36%40,630Huntington13,14773.57%4,25523.81%4682.62%8,89249.76%17,870Jackson14,55575.66%4,30222.36%3811.98%10,25353.30%19,238Jasper11,38373.56%3,79824.54%2941.90%7,58549.02%15,475Jay6,36175.14%1,92622.75%1792.11%4,43552.39%8,466Jefferson9,66365.60%4,73132.12%3362.28%4,93233.48%14,730Jennings9,49077.29%2,52320.55%2652.16%6,96756.74%12,278Johnson51,21965.83%24,73631.79%1,8472.38%26,48334.04%77,802Knox11,65572.72%4,06725.37%3061.91%7,58847.35%16,028Kosciusko26,49973.85%8,36423.31%1,0212.84%18,13550.54%35,884LaGrange8,11076.14%2,35522.11%1871.75%5,75554.03%10,652Lake91,76041.65%124,87056.67%3,7001.68%-33,110-15.02%220,330LaPorte25,99752.54%22,42745.32%1,0592.14%3,5707.22%49,483Lawrence15,60174.04%4,96123.54%5092.42%10,64050.50%21,071Madison31,21560.16%19,52437.63%1,1512.21%11,69122.53%51,890Marion134,17534.30%247,77263.35%9,1872.35%-113,597-29.05%391,134Marshall13,84469.38%5,71228.63%3971.99%8,13240.75%19,953Martin4,02978.16%1,01119.61%1152.23%3,01858.55%5,155Miami10,92575.38%3,23522.32%3332.30%7,69053.06%14,493Monroe22,07134.95%39,86163.12%1,2191.93%-17,790-28.17%63,151Montgomery12,65973.61%4,21324.50%3261.89%8,44649.11%17,198Morgan27,51275.96%7,78121.48%9282.56%19,73154.48%36,221Newton4,94274.78%1,50922.83%1582.39%3,43351.95%6,609Noble14,19573.87%4,66024.25%3621.88%9,53549.62%19,217Ohio2,39275.60%75023.70%220.70%1,64251.90%3,164Orange6,43272.73%2,22425.15%1882.12%4,20847.58%8,844Owen7,28673.47%2,42024.40%2112.13%4,86649.07%9,917Parke5,40076.90%1,50321.40%1191.70%3,89755.50%7,022Perry5,34561.18%3,20336.66%1892.16%2,14224.52%8,737Pike4,69275.37%1,41522.73%1181.90%3,27752.64%6,225Porter45,00851.87%39,74645.81%2,0142.32%5,2626.06%86,768Posey9,20969.38%3,81728.76%2471.86%5,39240.62%13,273Pulaski4,24673.04%1,46325.17%1041.79%2,78347.87%5,813Putnam12,27873.86%3,94623.74%3992.40%8,33250.12%16,623Randolph8,31275.02%2,51322.68%2542.30%5,79952.34%11,079Ripley11,26178.79%2,77419.41%2571.80%8,48759.38%14,292Rush6,03576.00%1,75422.09%1521.91%4,28153.91%7,941Scott7,33172.00%2,70126.53%1501.47%4,63045.47%10,182Shelby14,56872.78%5,02325.09%4262.13%9,54547.69%20,017Spencer7,35768.19%3,21329.78%2192.03%4,14438.41%10,789St. Joseph53,16446.13%59,89651.98%2,1781.89%-6,732-5.85%115,238Starke7,46972.42%2,65125.71%1931.87%4,81846.71%10,313Steuben11,32769.99%4,51327.89%3442.12%6,81442.10%16,184Sullivan6,69174.28%2,15323.90%1641.82%4,53850.38%9,008Switzerland3,13375.33%96423.18%621.49%2,16952.15%4,159Tippecanoe34,58148.15%35,01748.75%2,2263.10%-436-0.60%71,824Tipton6,11075.21%1,83422.58%1802.21%4,27652.63%8,124Union2,68876.98%73621.08%681.94%1,95255.90%3,492Vanderburgh41,84453.88%34,41544.31%1,4031.81%7,4299.57%77,662Vermillion5,18469.21%2,14528.64%1612.15%3,03940.57%7,490Vigo24,54556.17%18,12341.47%1,0302.36%6,42214.70%43,698Wabash10,76273.72%3,49423.93%3422.35%7,26849.79%14,598Warren3,40176.03%97421.78%982.19%2,42754.25%4,473Warrick21,32662.93%11,92335.18%6411.89%9,40327.75%33,890Washington9,11475.08%2,78422.93%2411.99%6,33052.15%12,139Wayne17,56763.47%9,52434.41%5882.12%8,04329.06%27,679Wells10,85577.10%2,92820.80%2972.10%7,92756.30%14,080White7,95771.13%3,03227.10%1981.77%4,92544.03%11,187Whitley12,86273.13%4,23424.07%4922.80%8,62849.06%17,588Totals1,729,86356.91%1,242,50540.87%67,4132.22%487,35816.04%3,039,781

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Tippecanoe (largest city: Lafayette)

By congressional district Trump won seven of nine congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative 45% 54%Frank J. Mrvan 59% 39%Jackie Walorski 64% 34%Jim Banks 64% 34%Jim Baird 50% 48%Victoria Spartz 69% 29%Greg Pence 35% 63%André Carson 65% 33%Larry Bucshon 61% 37%Trey Hollingsworth

Analysis Biden significantly reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county. Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for 1912, when the split in the Republicans allowed Woodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality. Hamilton broke 60%-38% for John McCain in 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana. Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even Lyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.

See also United States presidential elections in Indiana 2020 Indiana elections 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

. (Describes bellwether Vigo County, Indiana)

External links

(State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)