The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Trump won the state 53.1% to Biden's 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state, Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016.
This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha metropolitan area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.
Iowa is one of only three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and thrice for Trump, the other two being Florida and Ohio.
Caucuses The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.
Republican caucuses
Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the Republican delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.
Democratic caucuses
After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.
Libertarian caucuses
+Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020CandidateVotesPercentage Jacob Hornberger133 47.52% Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77% Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38% Adam Kokesh 17 6.03% Dan Behrman 14 4.96% John McAfee 10 3.55% Vermin Supreme 9 3.19% Other (write-in) 8 2.84% None of the above 8 2.84% Sam Robb 7 2.48% Max Abramson 6 2.13% Mark Whitney 4 1.42% Arvin Vohra 3 1.06% Ken Armstrong 2 0.71% Souraya Faas 2 0.71% Benjamin Leder 1 0.35% John Monds 1 0.35% Total 281 100%
The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.
General election
Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPNiskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.CNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC News538
Polling
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 31 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.2%47.8%6.0%Trump +1.6Real Clear PoliticsOctober 23 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202045.6%47.6%6.8%Trump +2.0FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.3%47.6%6.1%Trump +1.3Average46.0%47.7%6.3%Trump +1.5
Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedPublic Policy PollingNov 1–2, 2020871 (V) –48%49% – –2%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,489 (LV)± 3.5%51%48% – – – –Change ResearchOct 29 – Nov 1, 20201,084 (LV)± 3.2%47%47%3%0%2%1%Civiqs/Daily KosOct 29 – Nov 1, 2020853 (LV)± 3.7%48%49% – –3%0%Data for ProgressOct 27 – Nov 1, 2020951 (LV)± 3.2%49%47%3%1%1% –Emerson CollegeOct 29–31, 2020604 (LV)± 3.9%49%47% – –4%0%InsiderAdvantage/Center for American GreatnessInsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness October 30, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%46%1% – –6%Selzer & Co./Des Moines RegisterOct 26–29, 2020814 (LV)± 3.4%48%41% – –8%2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,005 (LV)± 2.5%50%49% – – –2%Quinnipiac UniversityOct 23–27, 20201,225 (LV)± 2.8%47%46% – –1%6%RABA Research/WHO13 NewsOct 21–24, 2020693 (LV)± 4%46%50% – –2%1%Emerson CollegeOct 19–21, 2020435 (LV)± 4.7%48%48% – –4%0%RMG Research/PoliticalIQOct 15–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%47% – –2%4%45%49% – –2%4%49%48% – –2%4%Siena College/NYT UpshotOct 18–20, 2020753 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%2%1%1%7%Insider Advantage/Center for American GreatnessInsider Advantage/Center for American Greatness Oct 18–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%45%45% 2% – –8%Monmouth UniversityOct 15–19, 2020501 (RV)± 4.4%48%47%1%0%2%2%501 (LV)47%50% – – – –501 (LV)46%51% – – – –David Binder Research/Focus on Rural AmericaOct 10–13, 2020200 (LV) –50%44% – – – –Data for Progress (D)Oct 8–11, 2020822 (LV)± 3.4%48%47%2%0% –3%YouGov/CBSOct 6–9, 20201,035 (LV)± 3.5%49%49% – –2%0%Opinion Insight/American Action ForumOct 5–8, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%46%47% – –3%4%Civiqs/Daily KosOct 3–6, 2020756 (LV)± 3.9%47%48% – –4%1%Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45%50% – – 2% 3%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,276 (LV) –52%46% – – –2%Data for Progress (D)Sep 23–28, 2020743 (LV)± 3.6%47%44%1%1% –6%50%45% – – –5%Hart Research Associates/Human Rights CampaignSep 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%47% – – – –RABA Research/WHO13 NewsSep 23–26, 2020780 (LV)± 4%46%48% – – 2% 4%Monmouth UniversitySep 18–22, 2020402 (RV)± 4.9%50%44%2%0%1%2%402 (LV)49%46%2% –2%2%49%46%2% –2%2%Siena College/NYT UpshotSep 16–22, 2020501 (LV)± 4.99%42%45%2%0%1%10%Selzer & Co./Des Moines RegisterSep 14–17, 2020658 (LV)± 3.8%47%47% – –4%3%Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARPFabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARPAug 30 – Sep 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%45% – –1%6%Opinion Insight/American Action ForumAug 30 – Sep 2, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%51%43%3%1% –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020983 (LV) –53%46% – – –2%Monmouth UniversityJul 30 – Aug 3, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%48%45% 3% – <1%3%401 (LV)48%46% 2% <1%3%47%47% 2% 0%3%Data for ProgressJul 24 – Aug 2, 20201,101 (LV) –44%42% 3% 1% –10%46%45% – – –9%David Binder Research/Focus on Rural AmericaJul 30–31, 2020200 (LV) –43%49% – – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,095 (LV) –54%45% – – –1%RMG ResearchJul 27–30, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%41%40% – –7%13%Public Policy Polling/AFSCMEJul 23–24, 20201,118 (V) –48%47% – – – 6%Spry Strategies/American Principles ProjectJul 11–16, 2020701 (LV)± 3.7%46%48% – – – 7%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020455 (LV) –50%48% – – –2%Selzer/Des Moines RegisterJun 7–10, 2020674 (LV)± 3.8%44%43% – –10%3%Civiqs/Daily KosJun 6–8, 2020865 (RV)± 3.8%46%46% – –7%1%Public Policy Polling/Emily's ListJun 3–4, 2020963 (V) –48%47% – – –5%Public Policy PollingApr 30 – May 1, 20201,222 (V)± 2.8%48%46% – – –6%GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) –48%45% – –1%6%Selzer/Des Moines RegisterMar 2–5, 2020667 (LV) ± 3.8%51%41% – – – –The New York Times/Siena CollegeThe New York Times/Siena CollegeJan 20–23, 20201,689 (RV) ± 2.8%46%44% – –5%6%Public Policy PollingDec 29–31, 2019964 (V) –49%46% – – –5%Emerson CollegeDec 7–10, 20191,043 (RV) ± 3% 49%45% – – –6%NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% – – 3% 5%Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – – – –WPA Intelligence (R) Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 44% – – – 5%Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 53% – – – –Emerson CollegeEmerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – – –Donald J. Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) Other UndecidedDes Moines Register/Selzer & Co.Mar 2–5, 2020667 (LV) ± 3.8%53%34% – –The New York Times/Siena CollegeJan 20–23, 20201,689 (RV) ± 2.8%47%39%7%8%
Donald J. Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) CoryBooker (D) UndecidedEmerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48% –
Donald J. Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) Other UndecidedThe New York Times/Siena CollegeJan 20–23, 20201,689 (RV) ± 2.8%45%44%4%7%Public Policy PollingJan 2–4, 2020964 (V) –48%47% –5%Emerson CollegeDec 7–10, 20191,043 (RV)± 3% 46%45% –9%NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%
Donald J. Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) KirstenGillibrand (D) UndecidedEmerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46% –
Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) KamalaHarris (D) UndecidedEmerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46% –Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –
Donald J. Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) AmyKlobuchar (D) Other UndecidedThe New York Times/Siena CollegeJan 20–23, 20201,689 (RV) ± 2.8%46%41%5%8%
Donald J. Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) BetoO'Rourke (D) UndecidedEmerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –
Donald J. Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin Donald J.Trump (R) BernieSanders (D) Other UndecidedDes Moines Register/Selzer & Co.Mar 2–5, 2020667 (LV) ± 3.8%53%41% – –The New York Times/Siena CollegeJan 20–23, 20201,689 (RV) ± 2.8%48%42%4%6%Public Policy PollingDec 29–31, 2019964 (V) –49%44% –7%Emerson CollegeDec 7–10, 20191,043 (RV)± 3% 50%43% –7%NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51% – –Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51% – –Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50% – –
Donald J. Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren