2020 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Republican incumbent Steve Daines won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic incumbent governor Steve Bullock.

In the June 2 primary elections, Daines and Bullock secured their nominations with minimal opposition.

Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold. However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats. One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points. Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle. On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.

Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin. He also flipped two counties won by Donald Trump in the presidential contest — Lewis and Clark and Roosevelt.

This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.

Republican primary Candidates

Nominee Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in primary John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979) Daniel Larson, hardware store manager

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.

Candidates Nominee Steve Bullock, incumbent governor of Montana and former candidate for president of the United States in 2020

Eliminated in primary John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran

Withdrawn Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock) Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock) Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock) (remained on ballot) Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance (endorsed Bullock) Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)

Declined Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election. However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.

Withdrawn Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014 Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party

Green Party

Disqualified Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services

Eliminated in primary Dennis Daneke, retired college professor

Results

General election Debate HostDate & timeLink(s)ParticipantsSteve Daines (R)Steve Bullock (D)Montana Broadcasters AssociationAugust 8, 20209:30pm MDTMontana Television NetworkOctober 10, 20205:47pm MDT

Predictions SourceRatingAs of The Cook Political Report October 29, 2020 Inside Elections October 28, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedSteveDaines (R)SteveBullock (D)Other/UndecidedMargin270toWinOctober 15–19, 2020November 3, 202048.0%47.2%4.8%Daines +0.8%RealClearPoliticsOctober 5–24, 2020November 3, 202048.8%46.4%4.8%Daines +2.4%Average48.4%46.8%4.8%Daines +1.6%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SteveDaines (R) SteveBullock (D) Other UndecidedChange Research (D)Change ResearchOctober 29 – November 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%50%46%2%1%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D)October 26–27, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%47%48% –6%The Progress Campaign (D)The Progress Campaign (D)October 25, 2020 – (V) –48%48% – –Montana State University BillingsMontana State University BillingsOctober 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%47%48% –5%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotOctober 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%1%5%Strategies 360Strategies 360October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%48%47% –5%RMG ResearchRMG Research October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%1%4%47%48%1%4%50%45%1%4%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy PollingOctober 9–10, 2020798 (V)± 3.5%48%48% –4%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeOctober 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 3.7%52%43%1%5%Data For Progress (D)Data For Progress (D)September 30 – October 5, 2020737 (LV)± 3.6%47%48%0%4%Montana State University BozemanMontana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%47%49%1%3%Siena College/NYT UpshotSiena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%45%44%5%6%Fabrizio Ward (R)/Hart Research Associates (D)Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research AssociatesAugust 30 – September 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%1%2%Emerson CollegeEmerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0%50% 44% 1% 5%Spry Strategies (R)Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7%47% 44% 5% 4%Civiqs/Daily KosCiviqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2%49%47%1%2%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44%46% – 10%University of MontanaUniversity of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 43%47% – 10%Montana State University BozemanMontana State University BozemanApril 10–27, 2020459 (LV) ± 4.6%39%46%7%7%The Progress Campaign (D)The Progress Campaign (D)April 14–21, 2020712 (LV) ± 4.6%46%49% –5%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) March 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 47% 47% – 6%

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls. Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SteveDaines (R) DemocraticcandidatesUniversity of MontanaUniversity of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 47%53%

Steve Daines vs. Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SteveDaines (R) DemocraticcandidatesUniversity of MontanaUniversity of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6%64% 36%

Results

By county

CountySteve DainesRepublicanSteve BullockDemocraticMarginTotalvotes#%#%#%Beaverhead3,77566.641,89033.361,88533.275,665Big Horn2,10643.942,68756.06-581-12.124,793Blaine1,34342.841,79257.16-449-14.323,135Broadwater3,10775.601,00324.402,10451.194,110Carbon4,40462.962,59137.041,81325.926,995Carter76789.089410.9267378.16861Cascade22,31255.7317,72744.274,58511.4540,039Chouteau1,81360.591,17939.4163421.192,992Custer3,99568.171,86531.832,13036.355,860Daniels78776.4124323.5954452.821,030Dawson3,63475.351,18924.652,44550.694,823Deer Lodge1,92139.352,96160.65-1,040-21.304,882Fallon1,34185.0923514.911,10670.181,576Fergus4,74672.641,78827.362,95845.276,534Flathead37,86163.0622,18036.9415,68126.1260,041Gallatin31,82944.6039,54055.40-7,711-10.8071,369Garfield73690.98739.0266381.95809Glacier1,68729.504,03270.50-2,345-41.005,719Golden Valley40580.369919.6430660.71504Granite1,36064.7374135.2761929.462,101Hill3,74651.863,47748.142693.727,223Jefferson5,20663.702,96736.302,23927.408,173Judith Basin1,02676.1132223.8970452.231,348Lake8,96453.917,66446.091,3007.8216,628Lewis and Clark20,55448.3521,95551.65-1,401-3.3042,509Liberty78972.5229927.4849045.041,088Lincoln8,49072.453,22827.555,26244.9111,718Madison4,10367.062,01532.942,08834.136,118McCone94684.2417715.7676968.481,123Meagher81272.6330627.3750645.261,118Mineral1,73568.0181631.9991936.032,551Missoula25,52935.5646,26864.44-20,739-28.8971,797Musselshell2,34181.3153818.691,80362.632,879Park5,84150.325,76649.68750.6511,607Petroleum30085.475114.5324970.94351Phillips1,89579.6948320.311,41259.382,378Pondera1,93364.331,07235.6786128.653,005Powder River95784.1718015.8377768.341,137Powell2,24070.5393629.471,30441.063,176Prairie58678.4516121.5542556.89747Ravalli18,70665.479,86834.538,83830.9328,574Richland4,66980.631,12219.373,54761.255,791Roosevelt1,89146.892,14253.11-251-6.224,033Rosebud2,43664.551,33835.451,09829.093,774Sanders5,39571.122,19128.883,20442.247,586Sheridan1,35667.0066833.0068833.992,024Silver Bow6,64135.2812,18364.72-5,542-29.4418,824Stillwater4,37076.081,37423.922,99652.165,744Sweet Grass1,83474.5862525.421,20949.172,459Teton2,54168.561,16531.441,37637.133,706Toole1,52871.9759528.0393343.952,123Treasure37681.038818.9728862.07464Valley2,95369.341,30630.661,64738.674,259Wheatland78974.5027025.5051949.011,059Wibaux49182.3810517.6238664.77596Yellowstone49,27658.5934,83341.4114,44317.1784,109 Totals333,17455.01272,46344.9960,71110.02605,637 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Gallatin (largest municipality: Bozeman) Lewis and Clark (largest municipality: Helena) Roosevelt (largest municipality: Wolf Point)

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)

Official campaign websites Steve Bullock (D) for Senate Steve Daines (R) for Senate