The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent Senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2%.
Democratic primary The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020. Incumbent Senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale. An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.. Arlen Specter, who was elected as a Republican, but switched parties to Democratic, was defeated in 2010 during his first Democratic primary.
In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey. He announced his campaign on September 18. According to Vox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent. Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a primary defeat.
Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for challenging Markey; journalists observed his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale. Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing. This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.
Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to define himself for the first time to many voters. The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from 1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusetts political bosses was widely used by his campaign. Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left. Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on the internet.
Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement. Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries, House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff, and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.
As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticize the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden. Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family. As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left wing of the Democrats.
Candidates
Nominee Ed Markey, incumbent U.S. senator
Eliminated in primary Joe Kennedy III, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, and grandson of former attorney general and former U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy
Withdrawn Washington Blask Shannon Liss-Riordan, labor attorney Steve Pemberton, chief human resources officer of Workhuman (endorsed Markey) Allen Waters, perennial candidate (switched to 2020 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island Republican candidacy) (endorsed Kennedy)
Declined Maura Healey, Massachusetts Attorney General Scott Lang, former mayor of New Bedford (endorsed Kennedy) Juana Matias, former state representative and candidate for in 2018 Seth Moulton, former 2020 presidential candidate and U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Michelle Wu, Boston City Councilor
Endorsements
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of August 12, 2020CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handEd Markey (D)$11,083,613$10,402,461$3,535,316Joe Kennedy III (D)$8,542,661$11,661,569$1,378,349Source: Federal Election Commission
Polling
+Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed MarkeySource of poll aggregationDates administeredDate updatedJoe Ed MarkeyUndecidedMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsJuly 31 – August 27, 2020August 27, 202040.8%52.0%7.2%Markey +11.2
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error EdMarkey MauraHealey Shannon Joe SethMoulton StevePemberton AllenWaters Other UndecidedEmerson College/WHDHEmerson College/WHDHAugust 25–27, 2020453 (LV)± 4.6%56% – –44% – – – – –Data for ProgressData for ProgressAugust 24–25, 2020731 (LV)± 4%50% – –43% – – – –7%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk UniversityAugust 23–25, 2020500 (LV) –51% – –41% – – –0%8%UMass LowellUMass LowellAugust 13–21, 2020800 (LV)± 4.1%52% – –40% – – – 2%6%SurveyUSA/Priorities for ProgressSurveyUSA/Priorities for ProgressAugust 12–16, 2020558 (LV)± 4.2%44% – –42% – – – –15%UMassAmherst/WCVBUMassAmherst/WCVBJuly 31 – August 7, 2020362 (LV)± 7.0%51% – –36% – – –1%12%JMC Analytics and PollingJMC Analytics and PollingJuly 29–30, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%44% – –41% – – – –16%Emerson CollegeEmerson CollegeMay 5–6, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42% – –58% – – – – –University of Massachusetts LowellUniversity of Massachusetts LowellApril 27 – May 1, 2020531 (LV)± 7.8%42% – –44% – – –4%10%Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZSuffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZFebruary 26–28, 2020465 (LV)± 4.4%36%––42%–––1%21%UMass Amherst/WCVBUMass Amherst/WCVBFebruary 18–24, 2020400 (LV)± 5.9%43%––40%–––4%13%UMass Lowell/YouGovUMass Lowell/YouGovFebruary 12–19, 2020450 (LV)± 6.1%34%–– 35%–––– 23% Jan 17, 2020 Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race Dec 16, 2019 Waters withdraws from the race Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacySuffolk University/Boston GlobeSuffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV)± 4.4% 28% – – 42% – – –– 29% 26% – <1% 35% – 1% 0%– 36%Change ResearchChange Research August 23–25, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 25% – 5% 42% – 7% – – – Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacySuffolk UniversitySuffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% – 5% – – 5% – – 45% May 20, 2019Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy May 19, 2019 Healey announces that she will not run Apr 1, 2019 Waters announces his candidacy Dec 14, 2018 Moulton announces that he will not runYouGov/UMass AmherstYouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 (RV) – 26% 27% – – – – –– 35% 636 (RV) – 29% – – – 25% – –– 38% Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacySuffolk UniversitySuffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 (LV) – 24% – – – 18% – –– 45%
Debates + 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts Democratic primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic DemocraticKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Ed Markey Joe Kennedy III1 February 18, 2020 WGBH-TV Jim BraudeMargery EaganC-SPAN 2 February 18, 2020 WBTS-CD Latoyia EdwardsC-SPAN 3 August 11, 2020 WBZ-TV Jon KellerC-SPAN
Results Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district. Despite Kennedy's strength in Southern Massachusetts, Markey defeated Kennedy in portions of the 4th district near Boston, carrying Kennedy's hometown of Newton by 28.2% and neighboring Brookline by 39%. Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters. Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.
Republican primary The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.
Candidates
Nominee Kevin O'Connor, attorney
Eliminated in primary Shiva Ayyadurai, entrepreneur, conspiracy theorist, and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran as an Independent (write-in) in the general election)
Declined Charlie Baker, governor of Massachusetts (endorsed O'Connor)
Results
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Failed to qualify Vermin Supreme, performance artist and political satirist; member of the Libertarian Party Judiciary Committee; former 2020 Libertarian presidential candidate (as a write-in candidate)
Results
Green Party
Withdrawn Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, co-chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman
Independents
Write-in candidate Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)
Withdrawn Frederick Mayock, independent candidate for Massachusetts' 1st congressional district in 2020
General election The general election took place on November 3, 2020.
Debate + 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Ed Markey Kevin O'Connor1 October 5, 2020 WGBH-TV Jim BraudeMargery EaganC-SPAN
Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 29, 2020 Inside Elections October 28, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error EdMarkey (D) KevinO'Connor (R) Other UndecidedMassIncMassInc October 23–30, 2020 929 (LV) –60%29%6%5%YouGov/UMass AmherstYouGov/UMass Amherst October 14–21, 2020 713 (LV) –65% 26% 2% 7%Remington Research (R)Remington Research (R) September 16–17, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3.3%50% 40% – 10%
with Charlie Baker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error EdMarkey (D) CharlieBaker (R) UndecidedChange Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% –
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ShannonLiss-Riordan (D) CharlieBaker (R) UndecidedChange Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 54% –
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JoeKennedy III (D) CharlieBaker (R) UndecidedChange Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 41% –
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error StevePemberton (D) CharlieBaker (R) UndecidedChange Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 56% –
Results
By county