2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate majority leader since 2015 and had represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, won reelection to his seventh and final term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early; this figure was far greater than usual.

Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate majority leader

Eliminated in primary Nicholas Alsager Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary) Louis Grider, truck driver Neren James Kenneth Lowndes C. Wesley Morgan, former state representative

Withdrawn Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur (remained on ballot) Karl Das

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and 2018 Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district

Eliminated in primary Charles Booker, state representative Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine Maggie Joe Hilliard Andrew Maynard Eric Rothmuller, small business owner John R. Sharpensteen Bennie J. Smith, local business owner Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky

Withdrawn Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor (endorsed Mike Broihier) (remained on ballot) Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician (endorsed Charles Booker) Joshua Paul Edwards Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble

Declined Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019 Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015 Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019 Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016 Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (endorsed Booker) Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)

Campaign There were debates on March 5, 2020 and June 1, 2020.

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error CharlesBooker AmyMcGrath Other UndecidedData for ProgressJune 10–22, 2020 556 (LV)–43%46%–10%Garin-Hart-YangJune 16–18, 2020––32%42%––Civiqs/Data for ProgressJune 13–15, 2020 421 (LV)± 5.5%44%36%9%11%YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsYouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsJune 8–12, 2020313 (RV)± 7.0%39%49%6%3%YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsMay 2020 – –13%62% – –YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsApril 2020 – –11%62% – –YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsJanuary 2020 – –7%65% – –

Endorsements

Results

Other candidates Libertarian primary The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.

Nominee Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur

Reform Party Withdrawn Derek Leonard Petteys

Independents Declared Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate) Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate) Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary) Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate) Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)

Withdrawn Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65

General election Throughout the general election campaign, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist". He highlighted a comment McGrath made in 2018 in which she compared her reaction to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory to her reaction to the September 11 attacks.

Debates Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report October 29, 2020 Inside Elections October 28, 2020 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2, 2020Daily Kos October 30, 2020PoliticoNovember 2, 2020RCPOctober 23, 2020DDHQNovember 3, 2020538November 2, 2020EconomistNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MitchMcConnell (R) AmyMcGrath (D) BradBarron (L) Other /UndecidedSwayableOctober 23 – November 1, 2020365 (LV)± 7.9%49%46%5% –Morning ConsultOctober 22–31, 2020911 (LV)± 3%51%40% – –Bluegrass Community & Technical CollegeOctober 12–28, 2020250 (RV) –50%40% –10%Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9%50% 40% 5% 5%Mason-Dixon October 12–15, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4%51% 42% 4% 3%Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 746 (LV) ± (2% – 7%)52% 37% – –Data for Progress (D)September 14–19, 2020807 (LV)± 3.5%46% 39% 3% 12%48% 41% – 11%Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%53%41% –5%Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 30 – August 3, 2020909 (RV)± 3.3%49%44% –7%Bluegrass Data (D)Bluegrass Data (D) July 25–29, 20203,020 (RV)± 2.0%49%46% 4% –Morning ConsultJuly 24 – August 2, 2020793 (LV)± 3.0%53%36% –12%Spry Strategies (R)July 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%55%33% –12%Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)July 7–12, 2020800 (LV) ± 3.5%45%41% 7%7%Civiqs/Data for ProgressJune 13–15, 2020898 (RV) ± 3.8%53%33% 4%11%RMG Research May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40%41% –19%Bluegrass Data (D)April 7–12, 20204,000 (RV) –40%38% 7% –Change Research (D) January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% – 18%Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) January 8–13, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% – 17%Fabrizio WardJuly 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0% 47% 46% – 6%Change Research (D) June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) –47% 45% – 8%

with Charles Booker Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MitchMcConnell (R) CharlesBooker (D) Other /UndecidedCiviqs/Data for ProgressJune 13–15, 2020898 (RV) ± 3.8%52%38%9% with Jim Gray Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MitchMcConnell (R) JimGray (D) UndecidedGravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%

with Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MitchMcConnell (R) GenericDemocrat Other /UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) –47%44%9%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%Public Policy Polling (D) Aug 15–16, 2017 645 (V) – 37% 44% 19%

on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Yes No Other /UndecidedFabrizio Ward/AARPJuly 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%31%62%8%Public Policy Polling (D) Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 32%61% 8%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericRepublican GenericDemocrat Other /UndecidedCygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9%55% 39% 6%Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%54%38%8%Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%

Results McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea; he said, "At the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close." He won the election by nearly 20%.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville) Elliott (largest municipality: Sandy Hook) Marion (largest municipality: Lebanon) Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg) Nicholas (largest municipality: Carlisle) Rowan (largest municipality: Morehead) Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton)

By congressional district McConnell won five of Kentucky's six congressional districts.

District McConnell McGrath Representative 67% 28%James Comer 62% 33%Brett Guthrie 37% 61%John Yarmuth 60% 36%Thomas Massie 74% 22%Hal Rogers 51% 46%Andy Barr

Analysis McGrath raised a record-setting $94 million for her campaign. She raised $63 million more than any prior candidate had ever raised for a Kentucky political campaign. According to New Republic, she outraised McConnell by $27 million. According to The Hill, she outraised McConnell by more than $32 million.

Michael Sokolove of New Republic asserted that "Amy McGrath and other Senate candidates deceived donors to rake in far more cash than their Republican opponents. They got crushed anyway".

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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