The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated by Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen.
Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections. Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for governor of Nevada.
The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.
Background Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.
At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.
Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.
Republican primary Candidates Declared Sherry Brooks Sarah Gazala, teacher Vic Harrell Tom Heck Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. senator
Withdrew Danny Tarkanian, businessman, former attorney and perennial candidate (ran for U.S. House)
Declined Mark Amodei, U.S. representative (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Polling
with Danny Tarkanian Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DeanHeller DannyTarkanian UndecidedJMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics October 24–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 44% 17%JMC AnalyticsJMC Analytics August 24–25, 2017 700 ± 3.7% 31% 39% 31%The Tarrance Group (R-Heller)The Tarrance Group (R-Heller) August 14–16, 2017 300 ± 5.8% 55% 33% 12%
Results
Democratic primary Candidates Declared Danny Burleigh David Drew Knight Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 Allen Rheinhart, Black Lives Matter activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 Jacky Rosen, U.S. representative for NV-03 Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016
Declined Stephen Cloobeck, businessman (endorsed Heller) Aaron Ford, majority leader of the Nevada Senate (ran for attorney general) Steven Horsford, former U.S. representative (ran for U.S. House) Ruben Kihuen, U.S. representative (endorsed Rosen) Kate Marshall, former state treasurer, nominee for secretary of state in 2014 and nominee for NV-02 in 2011 (ran for lieutenant governor) Rory Reid, former chairman of the Clark County Commission, nominee for governor in 2010 and son of former U.S. Senator Harry Reid Dina Titus, U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2006 (ran for re-election) Steve Wolfson, Clark County District Attorney (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Results
Independents Candidates Declared Kamau Bakari Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate
General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 19, 2018
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018CNNOctober 30, 2018RealClearPoliticsNovember 5, 2018Daily KosOctober 26, 2018Fox NewsOctober 30, 2018FiveThirtyEightNovember 6, 2018
Endorsements
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handDean Heller (R) Incumbent$14,525,094$12,538,859$2,211,457Jacky Rosen (D)$21,571,221$20,817,629$768,851Source: Federal Election Commission
Polling
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;" |- valign=bottom ! Poll source ! Date(s)administered ! Samplesize ! Marginof error ! style="width:60px;"| DeanHeller (R) ! style="width:60px;"| JackyRosen (D) ! style="width:60px;"| TimHagan (L) ! None ofthese ! Other ! Undecided |- |HarrisXHarrisX | align=center| November 3–5, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 47% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |HarrisXHarrisX | align=center| November 2–4, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 46% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |Emerson CollegeEmerson College | align=center| November 1–4, 2018 | align=center| 1,197 | align=center| ± 3.0% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 49% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 3% | align=center| 4% |- |HarrisX | align=center| November 1–3, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 45% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |HarrisX | align=center| October 31 – November 2, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 44% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |HarrisX | align=center| October 30 – November 1, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 43% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar Group (R) | align=center| October 29 – November 1, 2018 | align=center| 2,587 | align=center| ± 1.9% | align=center| 49% | align=center| 46% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 2% | align=center| 3% |- |HarrisX | align=center| October 29–31, 2018 | align=center| 600 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 45% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |HarrisXHarrisX | align=center| October 24–30, 2018 | align=center| 1,400 | align=center| ± 2.6% | align=center| 43% | align=center| 46% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- | rowspan=2|CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS | rowspan=2 align=center| October 24–29, 2018 | align=center| 622 LV | align=center| ± 4.8% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 0% | align=center| 1% |- | align=center| 807 RV | align=center| ± 4.2% | align=center| 41% | align=center| 44% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 8% | align=center| 0% | align=center| 3% |- |Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing | align=center| October 24–26, 2018 | align=center| 773 | align=center| ± 3.5% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 47% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 7% |- |IpsosIpsos | align=center| October 12–19, 2018 | align=center| 1,137 | align=center| ± 3.0% | align=center| 47% | align=center| 41% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 8% | align=center| 4% |- |Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | align=center| October 15–16, 2018 | align=center| 648 | align=center| ± 3.9% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 48% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 7% |- |Vox Populi Polling | align=center| October 13–15, 2018 | align=center| 614 | align=center| ± 3.7% | align=center| 49% | align=center| 51% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |Emerson CollegeEmerson College | align=center| October 10–12, 2018 | align=center| 625 | align=center| ± 4.2% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 41% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 3% | align=center| 8% |- |NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena College | align=center| October 8–10, 2018 | align=center| 642 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 47% | align=center| 45% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 1% | align=center| 7% |- | rowspan=4|NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist | rowspan=4 align=center| September 30 – October 3, 2018 | rowspan=2 align=center| 574 LV | rowspan=2 align=center| ± 5.5% | align=center| 44% | align=center| 42% | align=center| 8% | align=center| 2% | align=center| <1% | align=center| 4% |- | align=center| 46% | align=center| 44% | align=center| – | align=center| 5% | align=center| 1% | align=center| 4% |- | rowspan=2 align=center| 780 RV | rowspan=2 align=center| ± 4.5% | align=center| 42% | align=center| 41% | align=center| 8% | align=center| 3% | align=center| <1% | align=center| 6% |- | align=center| 45% | align=center| 43% | align=center| – | align=center| 6% | align=center| 1% | align=center| 6% |- |Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRSKaiser Family Foundation/SSRS | align=center| September 19 – October 2, 2018 | align=center| 513 | align=center| ± 5.0% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 44% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 4% | align=center| 7% |- | rowspan=2|CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS | rowspan=2 align=center| September 25–29, 2018 | align=center| 693 LV | align=center| ± 4.6% | align=center| 43% | align=center| 47% | align=center| 4% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 0% | align=center| 1% |- | align=center| 851 RV | align=center| ± 4.1% | align=center| 40% | align=center| 43% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 10% | align=center| 0% | align=center| 2% |- |IpsosIpsos | align=center| September 7–17, 2018 | align=center| 1,039 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 43% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 4% | align=center| 8% |- |Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing | align=center| September 11–12, 2018 | align=center| 700 | align=center| ± 3.7% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 47% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 8% |- |Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University | align=center| September 5–10, 2018 | align=center| 500 | align=center| ± 4.4% | align=center| 41% | align=center| 42% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 4%Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2% | align=center| 9% |- |Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | align=center| August 20–21, 2018 | align=center| 528 | align=center| ± 4.3% | align=center| 43% | align=center| 48% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – |- |Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University | align=center| July 24–29, 2018 | align=center| 500 | align=center| ± 4.4% | align=center| 41% | align=center| 40% | align=center| 2% | align=center| 5% | align=center| 3%Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0% | align=center| 9% |- |SurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios | align=center| June 11 – July 2, 2018 | align=center| 1,097 | align=center| ± 5.5% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 48% | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| – | align=center| 7% |- |Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing