2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term. His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for president of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018. Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee Mick Rich, businessman

Declined Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and candidate for NM-02 in 2008 (ran as a Libertarian, later endorsed Gary Johnson) Steve Pearce, U.S. representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 (ran for Governor) Susana Martinez, governor of New Mexico

Results

Libertarian primary On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement. Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.

Candidates

Declared Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico, Libertarian nominee for president in 2012 and 2016

Withdrew nomination Aubrey Dunn Jr., New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands

Results

General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Endorsements

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 1, 2018Fox News November 1, 2018CNN November 1, 2018RealClearPolitics November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 6, 2018 ^Highest rating given

Polling Graphical summary

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MartinHeinrich (D) MickRich (R) GaryJohnson (L) UndecidedResearch Co.Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 47% 33% 11% 9%Carroll StrategiesCarroll Strategies November 1, 2018 1,202 ± 2.8% 51% 38% 8% 3%Research & Polling, Inc.Research & Polling, Inc. October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 ± 3.1% 51% 31% 12% 6%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 24–26, 2018 936 ± 3.4% 48% 32% 16% 5%Pacific Market ResearchPacific Market Research October 19–24, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 40% 28% 22% 11%NSON Opinion Strategy (L)NSON Opinion Strategy (L) September 20–24, 2018 932 – 36% 10% 28% 26%In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) September 16–17, 2018 900 – 38% 10% 28% 24%Research & Polling, Inc.Research & Polling, Inc. September 7–13, 2018 966 ± 3.1% 47% 26% 16% –In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC)In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) August 2018 900 – 38% 13% 28% 21%Emerson CollegeEmerson College August 17–18, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 39% 11% 21% 30%GQR Research (D-TMI)GQR Research (D-TMI) August 2–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 48% 33% 17% 2%GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich)GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) August 1–5, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 29% 22% –The Tarrance Group (R-Rich)The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) July 31 – August 2, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 30% 20% 6%NSON Opinion Strategy (L)NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 – 39% 25% 23% 12%

with Mick Rich Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MartinHeinrich (D) MickRich (R) UndecidedThe Tarrance Group (R-Rich) July 31 – August 2, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 55% 37% 8%NSON Opinion Strategy (L)NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 – 47% 29% –

with Gary Johnson Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MartinHeinrich (D) GaryJohnson (L) UndecidedGBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) August 1–5, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 50% 38% –In Lux Research (L)In Lux Research (L) July 28–29, 2018 525 – 40% 42% –

with Aubrey Dunn Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MartinHeinrich (D) MickRich (R) AubreyDunn (L) UndecidedNSON Opinion Strategy (L)NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 – 47% 30% 7% 16%Carroll StrategiesCarroll Strategies June 15–16, 2018 1,199 ± 2.8% 50% 39% 5% 6%

Results

By county County Martin HeinrichDemocratic Mick RichRepublican Gary JohnsonLibertarian Margin Total # % # % # % # %Bernalillo 140,08258.1%61,93225.7%39,27416.3%78,15032.4%241,288Catron55026.9%1,07558.4%21711.8%-525-31.5%1,842Chaves5,27931.7%8,72752.4%2,66616.0%-3,448-20.7%16,672Cibola3,92455.1%1,84225.9%1,35519.0%2,08229.2%7,121Colfax2,33349.9%1,61534.5%73115.6%71815.4%4,679Curry2,79327.4%5,89657.9%1,49814.7%-3,103-30.5%10,187De Baca26733.2%34242.5%19624.4%-75-10.3%805Doña Ana34,65157.0%18,10129.8%8,02913.2%16,55027.2%60,781Eddy4,83430.7%8,82656.0%2,09513.3%-3,992-19.3%15,755Grant6,76357.3%3,59830.5%1,44212.2%3,16526.3%11,803Guadalupe1,09465.2%29217.4%29217.4%80247.8%1,678Harding19841.2%19941.4%8417.5%-1-0.2%481Hidalgo79049.5%60738.1%19812.4%18311.4%1,595Lea3,33124.1%8,88264.2%1,62811.8%-5,551-40.1%13,841Lincoln2,61733.3%4,12252.5%1,11114.2%-1,505-19.2%7,850Los Alamos5,79856.3%2,57625.0%1,92618.7%3,22231.3%10,300Luna3,00548.9%2,31337.7%82313.4%69210.8%6,141McKinley12,40967.5%2,91515.9%3,04916.6%9,36050.9%18,373Mora1,56467.4%37216.0%38616.6%1,17850.8%2,322Otero6,37037.2%8,46049.4%2,29113.4%-2,090-12.2%17,121Quay1,01632.9%1,53449.7%53717.4%-518-16.8%3,087Rio Arriba8,77368.8%1,94515.3%2,03516.0%6,73862.8%12,753Roosevelt1,27727.6%2,60656.3%75016.2%-1,329-28.7%4,633San Juan12,48533.4%18,00248.2%6,87618.4%-5,517-14.8%37,363San Miguel6,60971.6%1,29814.1%1,32314.3%5,28657.3%9,230Sandoval28,19850.9%17,78532.1%9,39717.0%10,41318.8%55,380Santa Fe49,99474.4%9,54614.2%7,64211.4%40,44860.2%67,182Sierra1,91740.5%2,04843.3%76716.2%-131-2.8%4,732Socorro3,40954.7%1,70027.3%1,12918.1%1,70927.4%6,238Taos10,83874.7%1,55610.7%2,11214.6%8,72660.0%14,506Torrance1,98236.9%2,43345.3%95117.7%-451-8.4%5,366Union33422.8%87860.0%25217.2%-544-37.2%1,464Valencia11,51447.1%8,79035.0%4,13916.9%2,72412.1%24,443 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg) Los Alamos (largest municipality: Los Alamos) Sandoval (largest municipality: Rio Rancho) Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district Heinrich won all three congressional districts. District Heinrich Rich Johnson Representative 57.55% 26.28% 16.17%Deb Haaland 45.56% 40.17% 14.27%Xochitl Torres Small 57.52% 27.0% 15.48%Ben Ray Luján

References

Notes

External links

Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia Campaign finance at FEC Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites Gary Johnson (L) for Senate Martin Heinrich (D) for Senate Mick Rich (R) for Senate