2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota

The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, and other federal, state, and local elections in North Dakota.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018. U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to win this seat since 1958 and winning 12 counties that Heitkamp won in 2012. In 2018, Heitkamp won 10 counties that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential race. As of 2026, this is the last congressional race in North Dakota where the incumbent was defeated, and the last time a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in North Dakota lost any county other than Rolette or Sioux.

Cramer was sworn in on January 3, 2019, marking the first time since 1960 that Republicans simultaneously held both of North Dakota's Senate seats, and giving North Dakota an entirely Republican congressional delegation for the first time since 1959.

Background Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points. The race was expected to be extremely competitive, and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.

Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement

On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address, and does not allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations do not use a conventional address system, and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans. The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic.

A group of seven Native American voters led by Richard Brakebill, a U.S. Navy veteran enrolled in the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, challenged HB 1369 as violating the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In the case of Brakebill v. Jaeger, judge Daniel L. Hovland of the District Court of North Dakota ruled in April 2018 that large parts of HB 1369 were unconstitutional, including the prohibition on IDs with PO box addresses.

North Dakota secretary of state Alvin Jaeger appealed the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and requested a stay on Hovland's ruling. The Eighth Circuit initially rejected Jaeger's stay request, with the primary elections in June 2018 not being affected by HB 1369, but revised its opinion in September 2018 and stayed Hovland's ruling. The plaintiffs filed a motion to the Supreme Court, requesting that they take up the case, but this motion was denied. Consequently, Hovland's ruling remained inoperative and HB 1369 was effective for the November 2018 general elections, with many people without the right ID being unable to vote.Many Native IDs Won't Be Accepted At North Dakota Polling Places from NPRHas North Dakota Law Made It Harder for Native Americans to Vote? (True) from SnopesSupreme Court ruling does not mean Native Americans can't vote in North Dakota from PolitifactRepublicans wanted to suppress the Native American vote. It's working from The Guardian

Activists reacted to these suppression measures by educating voters, helping them get their identification cards updated, and giving them rides to the polls on election day. This backlash resulted in an unprecedented level of Native American turnout in this election.

Democratic-NPL primary The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary.

Candidates Declared Heidi Heitkamp, incumbent U.S. senator

Withdrew Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary Candidates Declared Kevin Cramer, U.S. representative Thomas O'Neill, former mayor of Niagara

Withdrew Tom Campbell, state senator (endorsed Cramer) Gary Emineth, businessman and former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party Paul Schaffner

Declined Rick Becker, state representative and candidate for governor in 2016 Rick Berg, former U.S. representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 Tammy Miller, businesswoman Kathy Neset, member of the North Dakota State Board of Higher Education Ed Schafer, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of North Dakota Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general and candidate for governor in 2016

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RickBecker RickBerg TomCampbell TammyMiller KathyNeset KellySchmidt Undecided1892 Polling (R-Campbell)1892 Polling (R-Campbell) October 11–12, 2017 400 ± 4.0% 3% 24% 32% 1% 4% 1% 35%1892 Polling (R-Campbell) May 30 – June 1, 2017 400 ± 4.0% 9% 39% 7% – – – 45%

Results

General election Debates

Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018CNN November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 5, 2018

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handHeidi Heitkamp (D)$27,353,798$16,356,442$11,142,250Kevin Cramer (R)$5,584,357$5,003,819$976,045Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HeidiHeitkamp (D-NPL) KevinCramer (R) Other UndecidedFOX NewsFOX News October 27–30, 2018 789 LV ± 3.0% 42% 51% 2% 4% 851 RV ± 3.0% 42% 49% 3% 6%Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar Group (R) October 23–24, 2018 1,498 ± 2.1% 46% 55% – –Strategic Research AssociatesStrategic Research Associates October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 40% 56% – 4%FOX NewsFOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 704 LV ± 3.5% 41% 53% 2% 3% 801 RV ± 3.5% 41% 50% 3% 5%Strategic Research AssociatesStrategic Research Associates September 17–27, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 41% 51% – 8%FOX NewsFOX News September 8–11, 2018 701 LV ± 3.5% 44% 48% 2% 6% 804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 47% 2% 7%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 457 ± 7.5% 47% 52% – 2%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon June 13–15, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing February 21–24, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 43% 40% – 17%The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) February 18–20, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 49% – 7%

Heidi Heitkamp vs. Generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HeidiHeitkamp (D) GenericRepublican UndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 821 ± 3.2% 47% 49% 4% Generic Democrat vs. Generic Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error GenericDemocrat GenericRepublican UndecidedThe Tarrance Group (R-NRSC)The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) February 18–20, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 34% 48% 18% Heidi Heitkamp vs. Tom Campbell Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HeidiHeitkamp (D) TomCampbell (R) Undecided1892 Polling (R-Campbell) October 11–12, 2017 500 ± 4.9% 41% 44% 15%1892 Polling (R-Campbell) May 30 – June 1, 2017 500 ± 4.9% 43% 37% 20%

Heidi Heitkamp vs. Kelly Schmidt Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error HeidiHeitkamp (D) KellySchmidt (R) UndecidedWPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) September 10–11, 2017 406 ± 4.9% 44% 48% 9%

Results

By county CountyKevin CramerRepublicanHeidi HeitkampDemocratic-NPLAll othersIndependentMarginTotal votes#%#%#%#%Adams79668.4%36431.3%40.3%43237.1%1,164Barnes2,50749.7%2,51749.9%190.4%-10-0.2%5,043Benson82836.5%1,42762.9%120.5%-599-26.4%2,267Billings45079.6%11520.4%00.0%33559.2%565Bottineau2,14765.6%1,11033.9%140.4%1,03731.7%3,271Bowman1,23374.9%40424.5%120.7%82950.4%1,649Burke72975.6%22823.7%70.7%50151.9%964Burleigh28,49461.7%17,35737.6%3580.8%11,13724.1%46,209Cass32,21741.6%44,72357.8%4879.6%-12,506-15.2%77,427Cavalier1,18160.3%76539.1%120.6%41621.2%1,958Dickey1,25357.7%91142.0%60.3%34215.7%2,170Divide72060.2%46939.2%80.7%25121.0%1,197Dunn1,49973.7%52525.8%100.5%97447.9%2,034Eddy67554.7%55545.0%40.3%1209.7%1,234Emmons1,43378.1%39121.3%110.6%1,04266.8%1,835Foster1,05263.6%58835.6%140.8%46428.0%1,654Golden Valley70480.0%17119.4%50.6%53360.6%880Grand Forks12,95246.4%14,82753.1%1570.6%-1,875-6.7%27,936Grant92572.9%33726.6%60.5%58846.3%1,268Griggs68856.1%53443.6%40.3%15412.5%1,226Hettinger98877.9%27421.6%70.6%71456.3%1,269Kidder91171.2%36428.4%50.4%54742.8%1,280LaMoure1,20358.1%85741.4%90.4%34616.7%2,069Logan74175.8%22823.3%80.8%51352.5%977McHenry1,65965.0%87934.4%150.6%78030.6%2,553McIntosh98267.5%46732.1%60.4%51535.4%1,455McKenzie3,01271.8%1,16727.8%140.3%1,84544.0%4,193McLean3,32065.7%1,70133.7%290.6%1,61932.0%5,050Mercer2,94173.1%1,06126.4%220.5%1,88046.7%4,024Morton9,58364.3%5,17534.7%1380.9%4,40829.6%14,896Mountrail2,20857.8%1,60542.0%70.2%60315.8%3,820Nelson77046.8%86652.6%110.7%-96-5.8%1,647Oliver71773.8%25025.7%50.5%46748.1%972Pembina1,81461.2%1,13238.2%160.5%68223.0%2,962Pierce1,16861.9%71137.7%90.5%45724.2%1,888Ramsey2,66852.8%2,33646.2%531.0%3326.6%5,057Ransom89038.5%1,39960.6%210.9%-509-22.1%2,310Renville83269.7%35629.8%50.4%47639.9%1,193Richland3,31645.4%3,94354.0%480.7%-627-8.6%7,307Rolette99319.7%4,04280.1%100.2%-3,049-59.4%5,045Sargent82141.0%1,17158.5%100.5%-350-17.5%2,002Sheridan60776.9%17922.7%30.4%42854.2%789Sioux22115.3%1,21183.7%141.0%-990-68.4%1,446Slope30780.6%7319.2%10.3%23461.4%381Stark8,94573.5%3,15125.9%700.6%5,79447.6%12,166Steele39941.6%55758.0%40.4%-158-16.4%960Stutsman5,48957.3%4,02742.0%670.7%1,46214.7%9,583Towner62455.4%49744.1%60.5%12711.3%1,127Traill1,73546.4%1,98853.1%190.5%-253-6.7%3,742Walsh2,55056.5%1,93742.9%250.6%61313.6%4,512Ward15,10562.6%8,85636.7%1670.7%6,24925.9%24,128Wells1,60171.7%62227.9%100.4%97943.8%2,233Williams8,11772.8%2,97626.7%580.5%5,14146.1%11,151Totals179,72055.1%144,37644.3%2,0420.6%35,34410.8%326,138

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Eddy (largest city: New Rockford) Cavalier (largest city: Langdon) Divide (largest city: Crosby) Foster (largest city: Carrington) Griggs (largest city: Cooperstown) McHenry (largest city: Velva) Mountrail (largest city: New Town) Pembina (largest city: Cavalier) Ramsey (largest city: Devils Lake) Stutsman (largest city: Jamestown) Towner (largest city: Cando) Walsh (largest city: Grafton)

References

External links Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia Campaign finance at FEC Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites Heidi Heitkamp (D) for Senate Kevin Cramer (R) for Senate