2018 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic congressman Beto O'Rourke. The primary was held on March 6, 2018, the first primary of the 2018 season.

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle. However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap. Leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke by a margin of just under 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.

Background

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters in the state were largely based in the majority-Hispanic communities in Southern Texas and in populous metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the heavily Hispanic city of El Paso on the state's western tip, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.

Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in nearly all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins, capturing urban zones, and coming very close to winning the Latino vote (49% to Kerry's 50%). Democrat Barack Obama lost by 7.27 percentage points in 2008 against John McCain, and 15.8 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. president in 2016.

As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among women, and 42% among college-educated voters.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator and former candidate for president in 2016

Eliminated in primary Stefano de Stefano, attorney Bruce Jacobson, television producer Mary Miller, CPA Geraldine Sam, former mayor of La Marque

Failed to qualify Thomas Dillingham, businessman

Withdrew Dan McQueen, former mayor of Corpus Christi

Declined George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and grandson of former President George H. W. Bush (ran for re-election) Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas (ran for re-election) Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, former governor of Texas and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016 Katrina Pierson, national spokesperson for the Donald Trump's presidential campaign in 2016 and candidate for House district TX-32 in 2014

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz Stefanode Stefano BruceJacobson MaryMiller GeraldineSam UndecidedDixie StrategiesDixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 4.7% 73% 1% 2% 2% 1% 21%University of TexasUniversity of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 91% 1% 3% 3% 2% –

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz MichaelMcCaul Other UndecidedDixie StrategiesDixie Strategies September 29 – October 1, 2016 321 ± 3.5% 52% 12% 7% 29%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 522 – 51% 19% – 31% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz George P.Bush Other UndecidedDixie StrategiesDixie Strategies August 8–9, 2016 448 – 40% 21% 12% 27%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz DanPatrick Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 522 – 49% 27% – 24%Dixie Strategies August 8–9, 2016 448 – 38% 23% 15% 24%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz RickPerry UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 522 – 37% 46% 18%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee Beto O'Rourke, U.S. representative from

Eliminated in primary Sema Hernandez, activist and organizer for the Poor People's Campaign, baseball coach and small business owner Edward Kimbrough

Declined Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from (ran for re-election) Julian Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and mayor of San Antonio Wendy Davis, former state senator and nominee for governor in 2014

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error SemaHernandez EdwardKimbrough BetoO'Rourke UndecidedDixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 – ± 5.7% 6% 4% 38% 53%University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 19% 8% 73% –

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated Neal Dikeman, businessman

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018CNNOctober 5, 2018RealClearPoliticsNovember 5, 2018Daily KosOctober 5, 2018Fox NewsOctober 30, 2018 Notes

Debates Complete video of debate, September 21, 2018 Complete video of debate, October 16, 2018

Endorsements

Fundraising In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election. Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign. Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handTed Cruz (R)$45,668,718$45,990,176$157,959Beto O'Rourke (D)$80,344,836$80,458,720$284,816Neal Dikeman (L)$33,732$33,398$333Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz (R) BetoO'Rourke (D) NealDikeman (L) Other UndecidedTrafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 2018 2,135 ± 2.1% 52% 43% – 1% 4%Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) November 1–2, 2018 1,211 – 49% 49% 1% – –Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 28–30, 2018 781 ± 3.7% 50% 47% 1% – 2%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 22–28, 2018 1,078 ± 3.5% 51% 46% – 1% 3%University of Texas TylerUniversity of Texas Tyler October 15–28, 2018 905 LV – 47% 43% – 4% 6% 1,033 RV ± 3.0% 47% 42% – 4% 8%Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies October 25–26, 2018 588 ± 4.0% 52% 42% – – 5%GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United)GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United) October 18–21, 2018 1,000 ± 4.0% 50% 46% 2% – 2%University of Texas/YouGovUniversity of Texas/YouGov October 15–21, 2018 927 ± 3.2% 51% 45% 2% 2% –IpsosIpsos October 12–18, 2018 1,298 ± 3.2% 49% 44% – 3% 1%Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn)Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn) October 10–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 3% – 3%CNN/SSRSCNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 52% 45% – 0% 2% 862 RV ± 4.1% 50% 45% – 0% 3%WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) October 8–13, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 52% 43% 1% – 4%NYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 51% 43% 1% – 5%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 54% 45% – 0% 2%YouGovYouGov October 2–5, 2018 881 – 50% 44% – 2% 4%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 42% – 3% 8%Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 19–20, 2018 613 ± 4.0% 48% 45% – – 8%Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) September 19–20, 2018 603 ± 4.0% 49% 46% – – 5%Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 50% 50% – – –Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 54% 45% – 0% 1%Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin)Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin) September 11–12, 2018 1,161 ± 3.0% 49% 45% – – 5%IpsosIpsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – 3% 5%Crosswind Media & Public RelationsCrosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 47% 44% – – –Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 1% – 11%Emerson CollegeEmerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 38% 37% – 4% 21%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 49% 45% – 1% 6%CiviqsCiviqs August 8–11, 2018 – – 47% 48% – – –Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) August 1–2, 2018 797 ± 3.5% 46% 42% – – –Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 49% 43% – 0% 6%Texas LyceumTexas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 41% 39% 1% – 19% 806 RV ± 3.5% 36% 34% 3% – 24%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 42% – – 7%YouGovYouGov June 19–22, 2018 821 LV – 50% 40% – 3% 7% 1,025 RV ± 3.6% 44% 36% – 3% 13%University of Texas/YouGovUniversity of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 41% 36% 2% 3% 17%GQR Research (D-End Citizens United)GQR Research (D-End Citizens United) May 29 – June 5, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 49% 43% – – 8%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 0% 9%Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC)Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC) May 21–28, 2018 601 ± 4.1% 48% 36% 3% 1% 11%Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords)Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords) May 21–22, 2018 861 ± 3.3% 48% 42% – – 10%JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 47% 40% – 6%Jonathan Jenkins (I) 6% 7%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 47% 44% – 1% 8%Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) January 17–18, 2018 757 ± 3.6% 45% 37% – – 18%WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz)WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz) December 12–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% – 1% 13%Texas LyceumTexas Lyceum April 3–9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% 30% 30% – 3% 37%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz (R) JoaquinCastro (D) Other UndecidedTexas Lyceum April 3–9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% 31% 35% 3% 31%Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 48% 36% – 16%Dixie Strategies August 8–9, 2016 1,018 ± 3.1% 32% 31% 14% 23%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TedCruz (R) WendyDavis (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2016 944 ± 3.2% 49% 37% 14%

Results