The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history, and remains the last Florida U.S. Senate race where the winner received less than 55% of votes.What you should know about the closest U.S. Senate race in Florida history, FloridaPolitics, November 26, 2018
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities.
Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott flipped numerous counties that Nelson had won in 2012, despite the favorable national environment for Democrats in 2018.
Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida.
Background Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019.
As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%–34% approval rating among his constituents. Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters.
After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race, Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018. As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%–35% approval rating among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%–47% in Florida as of August 2018. Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids.
Republican primary The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy. Candidates Nominee Rick Scott, incumbent governor of Florida
Eliminated in the primary Rocky De La Fuente, businessman and perennial candidate; American Delta and Reform nominee for president in 2016
Withdrew Virginia Fuller, registered nurse; Republican nominee for U.S. representative from CA-11 in 2012 Alexander George, businessman, political activist, and minister; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 Augustus Sol Invictus, far-right activist; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Lateresa Jones, life coach; Independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (running as a write-in candidate) Martin Mikhail Mike Pompura Joseph Smith, chiropractor; candidate for U.S. Senate in 1988 and FL-19 in 1996; Republican nominee for FL-16 in 1988 Marcia R. Thorne, pastor (ran as an independent) Angela Marie Walls-Windhauser, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (ran as a write-in candidate)
Declined Jeff Atwater, Chief Financial Officer 2011–2017 Carlos Beruff, real estate developer and Republican donor; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Pam Bondi, Attorney General since 2011 Richard Corcoran, State Representative (District 37) since 2010; Speaker of the Florida House since 2016 John Delaney, mayor of Jacksonville 1995–2003 Ron DeSantis, U.S. representative from FL-6 2013–2018; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for governor) Hulk Hogan, semi-retired professional wrestler, actor, television personality, entrepreneur, and musician David Jolly, U.S. representative from FL-13 2014–2017; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Carlos Lopez-Cantera, lieutenant governor since 2014; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 Tom Rooney, U.S. representative from FL-17 since 2009
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error Rocky RickScott UndecidedGravis MarketingGravis Marketing August 21–25, 2018 579 ± 4.1% 12% 73% 15%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing August 21–22, 2018 321 ± 5.5% 12% 73% 15%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 905 ± 3.3% 16% 74% 10%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RonDeSantis Invictus DavidJolly Carlos TomRooney RickScott Marcia R.Thorne Other UndecidedSaint Leo UniversitySaint Leo University November 19–24, 2017 166 – – 1% – – 8% 54% 1% 4% 33%Saint Leo UniversitySaint Leo University November 27–30, 2016 138 – 3% – 6% 3% 3% 41% – 11% 33%
Results
Democratic primary As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held. Candidates Nominee Bill Nelson, incumbent U.S. senator since 2001; U.S. representative from FL-11 1979–1991
Declined Randolph Bracy, State Senator (District 11) since 2016 Tim Canova, law professor; candidate for FL-23 in 2016 (running for FL-23) Pam Keith, Navy veteran, labor attorney; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (running for FL-18)
Failed to qualify Tamika Lyles Randy White
Libertarian Party Candidates
Withdrew Joe Wendt, janitor
Declined Augustus Sol Invictus, far-right activist; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (ran as a Republican) Roger Stone, political consultant, lobbyist, and strategist
American Independent Party Candidates
Withdrew Ed Shoemaker, psychologist (ran for FL-15)
Independents and write-ins Candidates
Declared Lateresa Jones, life coach; candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (write-in) Howard Knepper, businessman and real estate developer; candidate for president in 2012 (write-in) Michael S. Levinson, candidate for FL-13 in 2014 and the 2014 special election (write-in) Charles Frederick Tolbert, pastor (write-in) David Weeks (write-in)
Withdrew Edward Janowski Scott McCatty (write-in) Marcia R. Thorne, pastor Angela Marie Walls-Windhauser, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 (write-in)
General election According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation in 2018. It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country in 2018.
Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign. Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false." During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false.
Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that "nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks—moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation.
Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports. Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency.
During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016, and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks. Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid.
Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season.
Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign.
A 2024 study found that the confusing ballot design in Broward County, which flouted federal guidelines on ballot design, led approximately 25,000 voters to undervote in the 2018 Senate election. As the race was determined by less than 10,000 votes, some have speculated that the ballot design flaws contributed to the election outcome. However, the study concluded that this was unlikely to be the case.
Debates Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
Endorsements
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018NYTNovember 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018CNNNovember 5, 2018RealClearPoliticsNovember 5, 2018Daily Kos November 5, 2018Politico November 5, 2018FiveThirtyEight November 5, 2018
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handRick Scott (R)$68,801,011$66,496,248$2,304,762Bill Nelson (D) Incumbent$28,294,713$25,482,421$3,806,614Source: Federal Election Commission
Polling