2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, New Jersey was considered to be a state Biden would easily win or a safe blue state. Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.48% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites. Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election. This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner. Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county were available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary. The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

2020 New Jersey Republican primaryCandidateVotes%Delegates (incumbent) 457,21210049Total 457,212 100.00 49

Democratic primary

Green primary

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportOctober 28, 2020Inside ElectionsOctober 16, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 8, 2020PoliticoSeptember 8, 2020RCPAugust 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.July 26, 2020CNNAugust 3, 2020The EconomistSeptember 2, 2020CBS NewsSeptember 27, 2020270towinAugust 2, 2020ABC NewsJuly 31, 2020NPROctober 30, 2020NBC NewsAugust 6, 2020538September 27, 2020Fox NewsNovember 2, 2020

Polling Graphical summary

Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 9 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202056.5%37.3%6.2%Biden +19.2Real Clear PoliticsReal Clear PoliticsSeptember 4 – October 13, 2020November 3, 202054.7%37.3%8.0%Biden +17.4FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202058.4%37.9%3.7%Biden +20.4Average56.5%37.5%7.8%Biden +19.0

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,870 (LV)± 2%38%59% - - – –Research Co.Research Co.Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%40%59% - -1%5%SwayableSwayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020324 (LV)± 7.2%40%59%1%0% – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20206,472 (LV) –37%60% - - – –SwayableOct 23–26, 2020386 (LV)± 6.5%38%62%0%0% – –Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-EagletonOct 19–24, 2020834 (LV)± 4%37%59% - -1%1%Stockton CollegeStockton CollegeOct 7–13, 2020721 (LV)± 3.7%36%56% - - – –DKC Analytics/Brach EichlerDKC Analytics/Brach EichlerOct 5–13, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%34%56% - - 10% –Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityFairleigh Dickinson UniversitySep 30 – Oct 5, 2020582 (LV)± 4.6%38%53% - -5%4%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,952 (LV) –37%60% - - –3%DKC Analytics/Brach EichlerDKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Sep 8–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 38%52% - - 10% –Emerson CollegeEmerson College Sep 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%58% - - 2% –SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20202,309 (LV) –40%57% - - –3%DKC Analytics/Brach EichlerDKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Aug 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383%33%52% - - 15% –SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20202,426 (LV) –37%61% - - –2%Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach EichlerPollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Jul 7–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383%33%51% - -7%8%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,110 (LV) –37%61% - - –3%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 941 (RV) ± 3.2%35%54% - -3%8%Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-EagletonApr 22 – May 2, 2020689 (RV)± 4.2%33%56% - -5%7%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Apr 16–19, 2020 635 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 54% - - 2% 6%Fairleigh Dickinson UniversityFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 35% 53% - - – –Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D) Other UndecidedFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 53% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D) Other UndecidedFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) MichaelBloomberg (D) Other UndecidedFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 32% 56% – –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D) Other UndecidedFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 48% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) AmyKlobuchar (D) Other UndecidedFairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 47% – –

Results

By county County Joe BidenDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Atlantic 73,808 52.71% 64,438 46.02% 1,785 1.27% 9,370 6.69% 140,031 Bergen 285,967 57.67% 204,417 41.23% 5,465 1.10% 81,550 16.45% 495,849 Burlington 154,595 59.12% 103,345 39.52% 3,557 1.36% 51,250 19.60% 261,497 Camden 175,065 66.16% 86,207 32.58% 3,344 1.26% 88,858 33.58% 264,616 Cape May 23,941 41.48% 33,158 57.45% 615 1.07% -9,217 -15.97% 57,714 Cumberland 32,742 52.46% 28,952 46.39% 714 1.14% 3,790 6.07% 62,408 Essex 266,820 77.27% 75,475 21.86% 3,016 0.87% 191,345 55.41% 345,311 Gloucester 86,702 50.22% 83,340 48.27% 2,612 1.51% 3,362 1.95% 172,654 Hudson 181,452 72.62% 65,698 26.29% 2,700 1.08% 115,754 46.33% 249,850 Hunterdon 39,457 46.84% 43,153 51.23% 1,632 1.94% -3,696 -4.39% 84,242 Mercer 122,532 69.38% 51,641 29.24% 2,431 1.38% 70,891 40.14% 176,604 Middlesex 226,250 60.44% 143,467 38.32% 4,645 1.24% 82,783 22.11% 374,362 Monmouth 181,291 47.94% 191,808 50.72% 5,052 1.34% -10,517 -2.78% 378,151 Morris 153,881 51.41% 141,134 47.15% 4,307 1.44% 12,747 4.26% 299,322 Ocean 119,456 34.98% 217,740 63.76% 4,320 1.26% -98,284 -28.78% 341,516 Passaic 129,097 57.71% 92,009 41.13% 2,601 1.16% 37,088 16.58% 223,707 Salem 14,479 42.68% 18,827 55.50% 616 1.82% -4,348 -12.82% 33,922 Somerset 111,173 59.82% 71,996 38.74% 2,690 1.45% 39,177 21.08% 185,859 Sussex 34,481 39.20% 51,701 58.78% 1,781 2.02% -17,220 -19.58% 87,963 Union 170,310 67.29% 80,038 31.62% 2,744 1.08% 90,272 35.67% 253,092 Warren 24,901 40.96% 34,769 57.20% 1,117 1.84% -9,868 -16.23% 60,787Totals2,608,40057.33%1,883,31341.40%57,7441.27%725,08715.94%4,549,457

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township) Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)

By congressional district Biden won nine out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won three, including one that elected a Democrat. District Biden Trump Representative62%37%Donald Norcross48%51%Jeff Van Drew49.2%49.4%Andy Kim 44%55%Chris Smith52%47%Josh Gottheimer57%42%Frank Pallone Jr.54%44%Tom Malinowski 72%27%Albio Sires62%37%Bill Pascrell84%15%Donald Payne Jr.53%46%Mikie Sherrill67%31%Bonnie Watson Coleman

Analysis As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.

Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote. This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004. Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

Voter demographics