2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points. Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%). He also won over Native Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote. 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created. This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate. Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary Candidate Votes % Estimateddelegates (incumbent) 22 Uncommitted 0 Total 157,876 100% 22

Democratic primary

Libertarian primary

+ New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020CandidateVotesPercentage Jo Jorgensen (nominee)52033.12% Uncommitted33021.02% Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) 15810.06% Jacob Hornberger (lost)1549.81% Adam Kokesh (lost)1247.90% Sam Robb (lost)905.73% John Monds (lost)634.01% Dan Behrman (lost)583.69% Arvin Vohra (lost)392.48% James Ogle (lost)342.17% Total 1,557 100%

General election

Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPNiskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.CNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC News538

Polling Graphical summary Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 6 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202053.5%40.5%6.0%Biden +13.0FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.8%42.3%3.9%Biden +11.5Average53.7%41.4%4.9%Biden +12.3

Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,481 (LV)± 3.5%42%56% – – – –Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque JournalOct 23–29, 20201,180 (LV)± 2.9%42%54% – –3%1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20202,719 (LV) –46%52% – – – –GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D) Oct 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0%41%54% – – – –Public Policy Polling/NM Political ReportSep 30 – Oct 1, 2020886 (LV)± 3.3%39%53% 2% –2%4%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,015 (LV) –44%54% – – –1%Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 39%54% – – – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20201,087 (LV) –43%56% – – –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020904 (LV) –48%49% – – –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020506 (LV) –50%49% – – –1%Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report Jun 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 39%53% – – – 8%Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute Apr 20–21, 2020 1,091 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 52% – – – –Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54% – – – –Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) PeteButtigieg (D)Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 55%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) BernieSanders (D)Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 59%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrump (R) ElizabethWarren (D)Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%

Results

By county County Joe BidenDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 193,757 61.01% 116,135 36.57% 7,698 2.42% 77,622 24.44% 317,590 Catron 595 25.58% 1,698 73.00% 33 1.42% -1,103 -47.42% 2,326 Chaves 6,381 28.43% 15,656 69.76% 406 1.81% -9,275 -41.33% 22,443 Cibola 4,745 53.30% 3,975 44.65% 183 2.05% 770 8.65% 8,903 Colfax 2,611 43.40% 3,271 54.37% 134 2.23% -660 -10.97% 6,016 Curry 4,307 28.52% 10,444 69.16% 350 2.32% -6,137 -40.64% 15,101 De Baca 231 25.64% 656 72.81% 14 1.55% -425 -47.17% 901 Doña Ana 47,957 58.03% 32,802 39.69% 1,882 2.28% 15,155 18.34% 82,641 Eddy 5,424 23.36% 17,454 75.16% 344 1.48% -12,030 -51.80% 23,222 Grant 7,590 52.58% 6,553 45.40% 292 2.02% 1,037 7.18% 14,435 Guadalupe 1,234 56.37% 917 41.89% 38 1.74% 317 14.48% 2,189 Harding 179 35.45% 319 63.17% 7 1.38% -140 -27.72% 505 Hidalgo 823 41.69% 1,120 56.74% 31 1.57% -297 -15.05% 1,974 Lea 4,061 19.41% 16,531 79.03% 326 1.56% -12,470 -59.62% 20,918 Lincoln 3,194 30.99% 6,942 67.36% 170 1.65% -3,748 -36.37% 10,306 Los Alamos 7,554 61.45% 4,278 34.80% 461 3.75% 3,276 26.65% 12,293 Luna 3,563 43.97% 4,408 54.40% 132 1.63% -845 -10.43% 8,103 McKinley 18,029 68.07% 7,801 29.45% 656 2.48% 10,228 38.62% 26,486 Mora 1,745 64.97% 903 33.62% 38 1.41% 842 31.35% 2,686 Otero 8,485 36.00% 14,521 61.61% 565 2.39% -6,036 -25.61% 23,571 Quay 1,170 30.21% 2,634 68.01% 69 1.78% -1,464 -37.80% 3,873 Rio Arriba 10,990 66.09% 5,408 32.52% 230 1.39% 5,582 33.57% 16,628 Roosevelt 1,802 27.27% 4,634 70.13% 172 2.60% -2,832 -42.86% 6,608 San Juan 18,083 34.58% 32,874 62.86% 1,337 2.56% -14,791 -28.28% 52,294 San Miguel 7,888 68.41% 3,421 29.67% 222 1.92% 4,467 38.74% 11,531 Sandoval 40,588 53.01% 34,174 44.64% 1,800 2.35% 6,414 8.37% 76,562 Santa Fe 62,530 76.05% 18,329 22.29% 1,368 1.66% 44,201 53.76% 82,227 Sierra 2,265 38.10% 3,542 59.58% 138 2.32% -1,277 -21.48% 5,945 Socorro 3,722 51.98% 3,255 45.46% 183 1.86% 467 6.52% 7,160 Taos 13,121 76.37% 3,715 21.62% 345 2.01% 9,406 54.75% 17,181 Torrance 2,344 32.19% 4,772 65.54% 165 2.27% -2,428 -33.35% 7,281 Union 383 21.41% 1,388 77.59% 18 1.00% -1,005 -56.18% 1,789 Valencia 14,263 44.19% 17,364 53.80% 650 2.01% -3,101 -9.61% 32,277Totals501,61454.29%401,89443.50%20,4572.21%99,72010.79%923,965

By congressional district Biden won two of three congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative 37% 60%Deb Haaland55%43%Xochitl Torres SmallYvette Herrell40%58%Ben Ray LujánTeresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress counted Joe Biden's electoral votes, the campaign dropped the lawsuit. Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.

See also United States presidential elections in New Mexico 2020 New Mexico elections 2020 United States presidential election 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

References

Further reading

External links

(state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)