The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot. This is the closest presidential election in Arizona history, surpassing the previous closest of 1964, in which Barry Goldwater won the state by just under a single percentage point.
Trump carried Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. The state's bitterly competitive nature was attributed to the rapid growth of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population. Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County since Truman, with a margin of 2.2%, or 45,109 votes. High turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters was also seen as vital. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up. Arizona was the second-closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia, marking the first time since 1948 that the Democratic nominee won both Sun Belt states in the same presidential election (Clinton won each state in separate elections). This was also the first time since 1932 that a non-incumbent Democrat carried Arizona in a presidential election, or that an incumbent Republican lost the state. Arizona weighed in as 4.15 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2020. Arizona is also one of only two states that backed Biden that didn't back Barack Obama in either of his runs for president in 2008 and 2012, the other being Georgia.
After the election, the Republican-majority Arizona Senate launched a Maricopa County-based publicly-funded investigation into the election fraud alleged by Trump and his supporters. The controversial audit, completed in September 2021, found no evidence to support claims of significant election irregularities. Additionally, the audit found a 360 vote larger margin for Biden than what the earlier, certified results had given.
On April 24, 2024, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced that a grand jury has indicted eleven fake electors and seven Trump allies, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, for their roles in attempting to overturn the results for Trump.
Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.
Of the 57 total delegates, 3 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 17 bonus delegates were also allocated.
The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district and county conventions were held from February 8 to April 11 to select delegates to the Arizona State Republican Convention. At the Arizona State Republican Convention, which took place on May 9, the state party formally bound all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump. A May 15 email from the Arizona GOP stated that "every one of our ... delegates ... elected pledged to support Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's 2020 nominees for President and Vice President!"
The 54 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020, on the same date as the Democratic primaries in Florida and Illinois. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 43.7% of the vote and 38 delegates, running ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who received 32.7% of the vote and 29 delegates. No other candidates received any delegates and the only other candidates to receive more than 1% of the vote were Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, with 5.8%, and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 4.1%. Both Warren and Buttigieg withdrew prior to the contest. The other candidates on the ballot comprised a collective 1.2% of the vote.
Biden won 13 of 15 counties in the state of Arizona, with Sanders winning Coconino (home to Flagstaff) and Yuma (home to its eponymous city) counties.
The official vote totals reported by the Arizona Secretary of State added up to 86.7%, as the remaining 13.3% of the vote was composed of candidates whose individual vote totals were not reported.
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary Candidate Votes % Delegates Joe Biden268,029 43.7%38 Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.7% 29 Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.8% 0Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.1% 0 Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.5% 0 Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.3% 0Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.1% 0 Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.1% 0 Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.1% 0 Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.0% 0 Henry Hewes 208 0.0% 0 Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.0% 0 Total 536,509 86.7% 67 †Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
General election
Campaign
Arizona was a heavily contested state throughout the election. Once a reliably Republican state, it has trended more Democratic in recent years, with Trump winning it by just 3.5% in 2016. Compared to past Republicans, Trump's performance was historically weak: Mitt Romney won it with a 9.0% margin in 2012 over Barack Obama, John McCain by 8.5% in 2008 also against Obama, and George W. Bush by 10.5% in 2004 against John Kerry. Arizona was one of just ten states to swing more Democratic in 2016, and its 5.5 percentage point swing was the fourth largest in the country. The swing mirrored a nationwide pattern where suburban voters, formerly the principal Republican voting base, swung deep into the Democratic column. Arizona's leftward swing was also credited to a rapidly growing Hispanic population.
Both candidates spent massive amounts of money on advertising, though Biden outspent Trump 2–1.
Trump visited Arizona significantly more than his opponent, holding 4 rallies in just one week, compared to Biden, who only visited the state once. Trump favored large rallies with thousands of people in attendance, oftentimes without masks and contrary to the advice of health officials.
At his rallies, Trump campaigned with the Republican Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, as well as Republican Senator Martha McSally, in a bid to help her win against Democrat Mark Kelly in the 2020 United States Senate special election.
Final predictions SourceRankingThe Cook Political ReportInside ElectionsSabato's Crystal BallPoliticoRCPCNNThe EconomistCBS News270towinABC NewsNPRNBC News538
Polling
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to WinOctober 22 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.0%45.8%6.2%Biden +2.2Real Clear PoliticsOctober 25 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202047.9%47.0%5.1%Biden +0.9FiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.7%46.1%5.2%Biden +2.6Average48.2%46.3%5.5%Biden +1.9
2020 polls