The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. Also on the ballot were the nominees for the Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation parties and Independent candidates. Write-in candidates are not allowed to participate in presidential elections.
Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a safe red state. In 2016, Trump won Arkansas by a 26.92% margin, the largest margin for a candidate of either party since Jimmy Carter's 30.01% margin in 1976. In 2020, Trump won 62.40% of the vote to Biden's 34.78%, a 27.62% margin, the seventh consecutive election in which Republicans improved on their margin in Arkansas, the longest in the nation of any state for either party. This made Arkansas one of only seven states, along with the District of Columbia, in which Trump improved on his performance in 2016. Despite improving on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Natural State by 1.13% in terms of raw vote percentage, Biden's losing margin makes it the largest loss by a Democrat in Arkansas since George McGovern's 38.1-point defeat in 1972. The last Democrat even to win over 40% of the vote was John Kerry in 2004. After Barack Obama, Biden is the second ever Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Arkansas. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.
Trump won landslide margins across the state, including in many of the state's metropolitan areas and suburbs. Trump once again carried Woodruff County, formerly a Democratic stronghold, thus marking the first time since its founding that a Democrat was elected president without carrying the county. Biden's strength was mostly isolated to Pulaski County, home to the state capital and largest city of Little Rock, and Jefferson County, home to Pine Bluff. He also won six rural, predominantly African-American counties on the eastern border along the Mississippi River. All but seven counties in the state swung heavily to the right, the exceptions being Pulaski County and one other county in the Little Rock metropolitan area; Sebastian County, home to Fort Smith; and three counties in the northwest encompassing and surrounding the college town of Fayetteville, where the University of Arkansas is located. Notably, Biden lost Washington County, where Fayetteville is, by only 3.9 percentage points, the closest any Democrat has come to winning it since Clinton did so in 1996. Arkansas voted 32.07% more Republican than the national average in 2020.
Primary elections The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Republican primary Incumbent President Donald Trump, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente were the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, the current junior senator from Arkansas, declined to run in 2017. As incumbent presidents rarely face prominent challenges in primaries, Trump won all 40 delegates and 97.13% of the vote.
Democratic primary Eighteen candidates were on the Democratic primary ballot, of whom nine had already withdrew, three withdrew during the early voting period, and six were active candidates. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 40.59% of the vote and 17 delegates; he carried all but one county. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont came in second place, with 22.44% of the vote and 9 delegates. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won 16.72% of the vote and 5 delegates; no other candidates won over 15% of the vote or any delegates. Biden's win was widely predicted in polling and forecasts, similar to most other southern states; his best performance was along the eastern border along the Mississippi River and on the southern border, which have high concentrations of African American voters, who Biden consistently performed better among throughout the primary. He also won the Little Rock, Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff metropolitan areas. Analogous with his performance in the 2016 primary, Sanders performed best in the northwest, traditionally the most Republican part of the state, holding Biden to less than 40 percent of the vote in many regions and winning Washington County, home to the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. Biden's strong performance in the state is a vestige of the prominence of moderate, white, Democratic politicians in and from the state throughout the late 20th century and 2000s which has largely faded amid increased political polarization and Republican gains among white, non-college-educated voters. Aided by several other centrist candidates withdrawing from the race just before Super Tuesday and a growing Democratic voter base in the suburbs, Arkansas was a relatively noncompetitive state throughout the primary.
General election
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2020Inside ElectionsNovember 3, 2020Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2020PoliticoNovember 3, 2020RCPNovember 3, 2020Niskanen2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.November 3, 2020CNNNovember 3, 2020The EconomistNovember 3, 2020CBS NewsNovember 3, 2020270towinNovember 3, 2020ABC NewsNovember 3, 2020NPRNovember 3, 2020NBC NewsNovember 3, 2020538November 3, 2020
Polling
Aggregate polls +Source of pollaggregationDates administeredDates updatedJoeBiden DonaldTrumpOther/UndecidedMargin270 to Win270 to WinOctober 17–28, 2020November 3, 202035.0%60.3%4.7%Trump +25.3FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil November 2, 2020November 3, 202036.2%58.9%4.9%Trump +22.8Average35.6%59.6%4.8%Trump +24.0
Polls Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin DonaldTrumpJoeBidenJoJorgensenHowieHawkinsOtherUndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,309 (LV)± 4%61%38% - - – –SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20202,239 (LV) –60%38% - - – –University of ArkansasUniversity of ArkansasOct 9–21, 2020591 (LV)± 3.9%65%32% - -3% –Hendrix College/Talk Business & PoliticsHendrix College/Talk Business & PoliticsOct 11–13, 2020647 (LV)± 4.9%58%34%2%1%2%4%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 2020771 (LV) –62%38% - - –1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020689 (LV) –67%32% - - –1%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 2020747 (LV) –66%32% - - –2%SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020354 (LV) –59%38% - - –2%Hendrix College/Talk Business & PoliticsHendrix College/Talk Business & Politics Jun 9–10, 2020 869 (LV) ± 3.3%47% 45% - - 5% 3%
Fundraising According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $2,732,436.64, Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $2,088,712.78, and Jo Jorgensen and her interest groups raised $5,289.19 from Arkansas-based contributors.
Candidate ballot access The candidates on the ballot were listed in the following order:
Jo Jorgensen / Spike Cohen, Libertarian Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent Brock Pierce / Karla Ballard, Independent Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity Howie Hawkins / Angela Nicole Walker, Green C. L. Gammon / Phil Collins, Independent Gloria La Riva / Sunil Freeman, Socialism and Liberation John Richard Myers / Tiara Lusk, Life and Liberty Don Blankenship / William Mohr, Constitution Joe Biden / Kamala Harris, Democratic Rocky De La Fuente / Darcy G. Richardson, Independent Donald Trump / Mike Pence, Republican
Political party candidates were eligible via a primary election or party convention and had to have filed an affidavit of eligibility, political practices pledge, and party certificate with the Arkansas Secretary of State by March 1, 2020, as did independent candidates. Independents also had to file a petition with at least 1,000 signatures of eligible voters from up to 90 days before the petition filing deadline on August 3, 2020. Write-in candidates cannot run in presidential, municipal, or primary elections.
Electoral slates Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for president and vice president. Arkansas is allocated six electors because it has four congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot must submit a list of six electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all six electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arkansas, there are no laws regarding faithless electors, meaning their vote is counted and not penalized.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All six pledged electors cast their votes for incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021, per the Electoral Count Act.
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: Donald TrumpMike PenceRepublicanJoe BidenKamala HarrisDemocraticJo JorgensenSpike CohenLibertarianKanye WestMichelle TidballIndependentHowie HawkinsAngela Nicole WalkerGreenPhil CollinsBilly Joe ParkerIndependentBrock PierceKarla BallardIndependentDon BlankenshipWilliam MohrConstitutionBrian T. CarrollAmar PatelAmerican SolidarityEd BethuneSharon BrooksIverson JacksonJ. D. McGeheeRod SoubersDoyle WebbConnie CastleberryNicole ClowneyFrederick FreemanMegan GodfreyPhilip HoodAsad KhanJames HoodChristopher OlsonMorgan ReynoldsBrian ShankJake SimpsonJoe SwaffordAddison BlakelyAudrey BucknerChristopher BlakelyChristopher DoneganTrista Nicole DoneganCourtney JohnsonRyan GiglioChad JonesLowel LybargerMarilyn RumphRobin RumphAndrew WaldronNone submittedJoni BilhartzErin KrusJeremy PlumleeKelly ShadlowSusan ShadowChristopher SmileyJonathan BakerSpencer GrahamMitchell IngramMargie MullinsTrently MullinsBrian WebbAngela Clark-ChandlerEverett DePangherAshley EvansGary EvansLee EvansAdam Wheeless C. L. GammonPhil CollinsIndependentJohn Richard MyersTiara LuskLife and LibertyGloria La RivaSunil FreemanSocialism and LiberationRocky De La FuenteDarcy RichardsonIndependentNone submittedJacob FaughtBrenda HineslyWilliam Whitfield HymanBrian LeachZachary Caleb MulsonGlen SchwarzTaylor AdamsKarl BrownAaron GibsonJill NeimeierDestin ReishusAchal ThakoreGevina JacksonOrlando JonesPhyllis McCullorElisha PatrickTiara PetersTherma L. Propps Jr.
Results
By county