In Poland, climate change has resulted in an increase of average temperature above 2 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, which is higher than the average level of climate change in Europe. Temperature has been observed to increase over the last decades due to anthropogenic activity, and without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions the effects of climate change will become ever more noticeable.
Because of Poland's geographical location, climate effects are variably dispersed. Global warming has been observed to cause heat waves and other weather instabilities in Poland, which causes stress on ecosystems and human well-being. Changes in climate have been monitored by meteorological stations in Poland for over 100 years. In the last decades, the number of days with heavy rains increased, the number of days with snow cover decreased, and there has been an increased intensity of hurricanes, thunderstorms and similar weather events.
Floods and droughts are the main weather related challenges that Poland faces, and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in varying scenarios with predicted climate change. Agriculture and water management remain a major concern for the Polish Ministry of Environment.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Energy consumption and sources Poland's energy, according to the most recent statistics from 2021, is mainly derived from hard and brown coal and crude oil, which are fossil fuels and thus emit greenhouse gasses: they account for 69.2% of Poland's energy supply. Renewable energy carriers account for only 11.8% of the energy supply.
The national consumption of energy was 3 697.5 petajoules in 2021, and follows a slight upward trend in energy consumption that is discernible since the early 2000s. The largest share of direct energy consumption was held by the industry sector, and it amounted to 32.5%. This was followed by the transport sector (including privately owned cars), 27.0% and then households, 25.8%.
Historical emissions The greenhouse gas emissions of Poland have decreased from their 1990 level. This is partly because of Poland's increased energy efficiency, but there was also a gradual shift towards the import and usage of natural gas; however, this was mostly Russian gas, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent gas dispute has complicated the usage of this resource. Renewable sources such as solar and off-shore wind power are slowly gaining importance in Poland's energy supply.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Observed thermal climate changes The climate of Poland is generally becoming warmer and cloudier, due to climate change and to changes in atmospheric circulation.
Since the mid-1900s, Poland's average temperature has risen 0.29 degrees per decade. In sum, temperature increased by just over 2 °C. Observed warming in the last 3 decades is connected to global temperature increases; however, in the last two decades, the country has been warming faster than the world on average.
Climate change in Poland has manifested through significant increases in average, maximum, and minimum annual and seasonal air temperatures, an increasing number of hot days, and a decreasing number of frosty days. A decrease in the number of weather types in a year indicates that the weather varies less in the year.
Temperature increases have been stronger in the eastern and western parts of Poland than in the center. The greatest temperature rise (more than 2.1 °C) occurred in the Lake Districts and the weakest one (almost 1.8 °C) in the Sudety Mountains (NC8BR5).
Predicted thermal climate changes Poland's average temperature is projected to continue to rise throughout this century. An upward trend is discernible in mean temperature both in near and far future and for RCP 4,5 and RCP 8,5 climate projections. While hotter days are expected to become hotter, they will also be more frequent, increasing the chances of long lasting heat waves. The number of days above 25 °C is predicted to rise substantially from 29 days per year in the 2001-2010 period to 52 days in 2071–2090. Meanwhile, frost periods and days (minimum temperature below 0 °C) will decrease throughout the century. Such thermal changes will be more pronounced in the far future, and they depend on the levels of global mitigation and subsequent global warming (as can be seen in the scenario's made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, RCP 4,5 and RCP 8,5). Frost days in Poland are predicted to decrease from 102 days per year in 2001–2010 to 65 days in 2071–2090.
Change in precipitation Global climate change is accompanied by other climate variabilities, as in change of annual sums of precipitation, and changes in air and oceanic circulation patterns. The annual total precipitation is slightly increasing, yet changes are small and not statistically significant Noteworthy are the changes in the monthly and seasonal rainfall distribution, as well as regional/ spatial variabilities. Significant increases of precipitation have been observed during autumn and winter months, especially in March, while summer precipitation is decreasing. The observed changes of precipitation vary regionally, since precipitation in Poland displays a great spatial variety and dependence on hypsometry. In southeastern Poland there is a downward trend in the total precipitation during spring, summer and winter, while winter precipitation is increasing in northern Poland. The precipitation frequency (expressed by the number of days with precipitation) is increasing annually and above the long-term normal in northern- and western Poland.
Days of snow cover follows a negative trend, in hand with warmer winters, and snow cover frequency is expected to decrease over time.
Sea level rise A recent study by Poland's national research institute shows that the sea level in Poland has been steadily rising, with 2020 levels being higher than 1950 levels.
Ecosystems and biodiversity Ecosystems and biodiversity are influenced both by a changing climate and by human intervention in ecosystems. A changing climate can cause certain habitats in Poland to shift and change in temperature or water regime. This causes for example the disappearance of Poland's raised mires, transition mires and salt marshes. These effects of climate change are often augmented and supplemented by human-induced habitat transformation and habitat loss. According to the Convention on Biological Diversity, "the main threat to biodiversity is anthropocentric"; these threats include for instance air pollution damaging coniferous forest reproduction, hillside deforestation that causes degradation of riverbanks and their populations, and the reclamation of swamp lands that reduces alder habitats.
Moreover, they state that "a serious problem in Poland is the expansion of new alien species that pose a threat to native species." Alien, invasive species pose a threat to existing, native species. Examples of invasive species are the American mink (Neovison vison), small balsam (Impatiens parviflora), or the pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus). Since the introduction of the American mink, several species of water birds and semi-aquatic mammals have decreased. Where changes in mean temperature and precipitation could mean a setback to native populations, it could be beneficial to invasive species, such as the pumpkinseed fish that thrives in warmer water. Advancing invasive species are especially dangerous in national parks, where native flora and fauna is otherwise more or less protected from anthropocentric influence. Although natural reserves often have a stronger natural ecosystem and thus are more resilient to invading non-native species, they are also of greater importance to retain biodiversity; this makes a successful invasive species in those area's more dangerous to the Polish ecosystem. Small balsam is the most common invasive species found in Poland's national parks. Poland's national reserves also suffer from excessive tourism, and both that and invasive species are a factor in the destruction of Poland's small-scale habitats.
Impacts on people
Impacts on livelihoods The effects of climate changes are evident in people's daily lives; these include but are not limited to changes in bioclimatic stress, changes in conditions for recreation, and economical effects; for example, the improvement of thermal agricultural conditions, and changes in energy demand for heating buildings, air conditioning and refrigeration.
The main threats of climate change in Poland involve changes in water balance, decrease in agricultural yields, increased frequency of extreme weather, increased forest fire risk, loss of biodiversity, and accelerated soil erosion. Further risks of biosphere and ecosphere alterations depend on future global warming and ecological feedback effects.
Impact on energy demand and security Poland's ongoing dependency on fossil fuel will not only contribute to global climate change, but will also become more expensive as the price for allowances continues to rise
Climate change, and more specifically global warming, will also affect Poland's energy consumption. So-called "heating degree days", where a lot of energy is consumed heating up buildings, will decrease, and thus also decrease energy consumption. This could, however, be countered by an increase in demand for air-conditioning and refrigerating on warmer days.
These altered demand patterns are likely to affect the reliability of Poland's energy systems in the summer. Lower winter consumption and more days of heat waves will cause less energy generation capacity. Without a synchronization of seasonal energy consumption and the launch of new generation capacity (renewable resources) to meet summer demands, Poland's energy supply will be more unstable. A dependence on only a few energy sources, accompanied by the altered demand patterns will likely lead to rising fuel prices. Fuel prices are likely to affect food and commodity prices, as is already the case with the Ukrainian war and the subsequent rising energy prices and increasing inflation.
In the context of more extreme and unpredictable weather events, heavy precipitation, floods and storms will affect the reliability of the energy system concerning its capacity to provide for future households, companies and general public consumption.
Water scarcity Changes in water balance, such as increased variability of precipitation and evaporation, and lack of snow cover in winter and low water levels in rivers, will lead to diminished ground water levels over time. Increased frequency of disruptive weather phenomena, such as hurricanes, flooding and long periods of drought will have disruptive effects on many aspects of life and society; cause water supply deficit and damage on water supply systems. Water supply deficit will become a limiting factor for agricultural production and forestry.
Agricultural insecurities The agricultural sector in Poland is of high economic and social importance. Compared to other countries in Europe, Poland has the highest number of inhabitants who are professionally active in agriculture.
Agriculture is heavily affected by climatic conditions, especially increases in temperature and changes in precipitation and weather extremes, such as drought and heavy precipitation. Global warming is predicted to lead to improved thermal agricultural conditions and accelerated sowing and harvest conditions in the region.