The 2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts.
Prior to the election, Nebraska was considered to be a state Trump would win or a safe red state. The state is located in the heavily conservative Great Plains and was projected to vote for Trump by a wide margin. However, Nebraska is one of the two states (the other being Maine) where electoral votes are split based on congressional districts; the statewide winner receives two electoral votes and the remaining three electoral votes are awarded to the winner of each congressional district.
Trump carried the state with 58.7% of the vote, while Clinton received 33.7%, a margin of 25%. Trump also won all three congressional districts, thus winning all 5 of the state's electoral votes.
Although Trump improved on Romney's margin statewide, his margin in Nebraska's 2nd notably decreased; Trump won NE-02 with a plurality of 47% (137,264 votes) to Clinton's 45% (130,844 votes) with a notable increase in third-party voting. This was the most recent presidential election when Nebraska's 2nd congressional district would vote Republican, and thus, Nebraska's 2nd district was the only electoral vote that voted for Trump in 2016 that did not vote for him in 2024.
Caucuses and primaries
Democratic caucus
The 2016 Nebraska Democratic caucuses was held on March 15, 2016, as part of a series of primary elections to decide the 2016 Democratic nominee for president. Senator Bernie Sanders won a commanding victory in Nebraska, winning rural areas along with big cities such as Omaha and Lincoln. This was the last Democratic primary in Nebraska held via the caucus method, the state party switched to a standard popular vote to decide the allocation of delegates in future elections including 2020. In 2016, the Nebraska caucuses occurred on the same dates as Kansas and Louisiana, the former being won handily by Sanders, while the latter was won in a landslide by the eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.
Republican primary
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:WRAL: NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballotsNC State Board of Elections presidential primary candidates' list (preliminary) Ben Carson (withdrawn) Ted Cruz (withdrawn) John Kasich (withdrawn) Marco Rubio (withdrawn) Donald Trump
Libertarian primary
The Nebraska primary was held on May 10, 2016. Independents and registered Libertarians were allowed to vote in the state's Libertarian primary. The Nebraska Primary marked the third large victory for Gary Johnson in the handful of states that conduct Libertarian presidential primaries. However, since the Libertarian Party does not use such primaries for selecting delegates to its national nominating convention, the results were effectively non-binding.
2016 Nebraska Libertarian primaryCandidatePopular voteCountPercentage Gary Johnson37552.08%Austin Petersen13518.75%John McAfee12417.22%Marc Allan Feldman476.53%Steve Kerbel354.86%Total:720100%
General election Polling 1st Congressional District Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror HillaryClinton (D) DonaldTrump (R) GaryJohnson (L) Other Undecided Emerson College September 25–27, 2016 233 29% 53% — — —
2nd Congressional District Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror HillaryClinton (D) DonaldTrump (R) GaryJohnson (L) Other Undecided Emerson College September 25–27, 2016 233 40% 49% — — — The Singularis Group, LLC May 11–12, 2016 1,007 ± 3.08% 36% 44% — — 20%
3rd Congressional District Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror HillaryClinton (D) DonaldTrump (R) GaryJohnson (L) Other Undecided Emerson College September 25–27, 2016 234 20% 65% — — —
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles TimesNovember 6, 2016CNNNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016NBCNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016ABCNovember 7, 2016 Source1st district2nd district3rd districtAs ofCNNNovember 8, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016NBCNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016
Results 2016 United States presidential election in NebraskaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 495,961 58.75% 5 Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 284,494 33.70% 0 Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 38,946 4.61% 0 Write-Ins 16,051 1.90% 0 Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 8,775 1.04% 0 Totals 844,227 100.00% 5
By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanHillary ClintonDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adams9,28768.73%3,30224.44%9246.83%5,98544.29%13,513Antelope2,73283.27%38311.67%1665.06%2,34971.60%3,281Arthur24489.38%176.23%124.39%22783.15%273Banner35788.81%194.73%266.46%33884.08%402Blaine27687.07%309.46%113.47%24677.61%317Boone2,29979.14%41414.25%1926.61%1,88564.89%2,905Box Butte3,61773.46%96519.60%3426.94%2,65253.86%4,924Boyd98385.03%12811.07%453.90%85573.96%1,156Brown1,38586.73%1539.58%593.69%1,23277.15%1,597Buffalo14,56968.95%4,76322.54%1,7978.51%9,80646.41%21,129Burt2,36766.53%93026.14%2617.33%1,43740.39%3,558Butler3,07977.34%69117.36%2115.30%2,38859.98%3,981Cass8,45265.35%3,48426.94%9977.71%4,96838.41%12,933Cedar3,53279.91%57112.92%3177.17%2,96166.99%4,420Chase1,64886.83%1719.01%794.16%1,47777.82%1,898Cherry2,62384.12%31710.17%1785.71%2,30673.95%3,118Cheyenne3,66577.80%71115.09%3357.11%2,95462.71%4,711Clay2,42279.02%47715.56%1665.42%1,94563.46%3,065Colfax2,17167.55%85926.73%1845.72%1,31240.82%3,214Cuming3,12276.63%71917.65%2335.72%2,40358.98%4,074Custer4,69583.07%64111.34%3165.59%4,05471.73%5,652Dakota3,61657.59%2,31436.85%3495.56%1,30220.74%6,279Dawes2,63271.60%80121.79%2436.61%1,83149.81%3,676Dawson5,98469.30%2,13624.74%5155.96%3,84844.56%8,635Deuel80982.22%12012.20%555.58%68970.02%984Dixon2,04173.36%55619.99%1856.65%1,48553.37%2,782Dodge9,93363.96%4,54429.26%1,0526.78%5,38934.70%15,529Douglas108,07744.95%113,79847.33%18,5587.72%-5,721-2.38%240,433Dundy82386.36%899.34%414.30%73477.02%953Fillmore2,13072.42%61320.84%1986.74%1,51751.58%2,941Franklin1,34780.51%25014.94%764.55%1,09765.57%1,673Frontier1,11083.58%16112.12%574.30%94971.46%1,328Furnas1,92182.09%30412.99%1154.92%1,61769.10%2,340Gage6,38063.50%2,93529.21%7337.29%3,44534.29%10,048Garden86980.84%15314.23%534.93%71666.61%1,075Garfield82183.78%12112.35%383.87%70071.43%980Gosper79478.61%16616.44%504.95%62862.17%1,010Grant36790.62%204.94%184.44%34785.68%405Greeley91277.62%21017.87%534.51%70259.75%1,175Hall14,40865.31%6,28228.48%1,3706.21%8,12636.83%22,060Hamilton3,78375.60%87817.55%3436.85%2,90558.05%5,004Harlan1,49681.66%25413.86%824.48%1,24267.80%1,832Hayes47291.83%305.84%122.33%44285.99%514Hitchcock1,23283.92%16110.97%755.11%1,07172.95%1,468Holt4,35485.07%53110.38%2334.55%3,82374.69%5,118Hooker35585.13%409.59%225.28%31575.54%417Howard2,28476.29%54418.17%1665.54%1,74058.12%2,994Jefferson2,39968.66%83723.96%2587.38%1,56244.70%3,494Johnson1,35564.86%56326.95%1718.19%79237.91%2,089Kearney2,53176.79%55016.69%2156.52%1,98160.10%3,296Keith3,23580.19%57114.15%2285.66%2,66466.04%4,034Keya Paha46088.63%407.71%193.66%42080.92%519Kimball1,33079.31%23013.71%1176.98%1,10065.60%1,677Knox3,18877.47%72017.50%2075.03%2,46859.97%4,115Lancaster61,58845.21%61,89845.44%12,7379.35%-310-0.23%136,223Lincoln12,16475.41%2,91318.06%1,0546.53%9,25157.35%16,131Logan40088.30%327.06%214.64%36881.24%453Loup32383.90%4812.47%143.63%27571.43%385Madison10,62874.10%2,71118.90%1,0047.00%7,91755.20%14,343McPherson25789.55%144.88%165.57%24384.67%287Merrick2,92677.24%60215.89%2606.87%2,32461.35%3,788Morrill1,80281.58%28412.86%1235.56%1,51868.72%2,209Nance1,26177.79%28117.33%794.88%98060.46%1,621Nemaha2,11666.94%78524.83%2608.23%1,33142.11%3,161Nuckolls1,72678.28%35316.01%1265.71%1,37362.27%2,205Otoe4,86065.17%2,02527.16%5727.67%2,83538.01%7,457Pawnee97473.40%27921.02%745.58%69552.38%1,327Perkins1,21783.64%16111.07%775.29%1,05672.57%1,455Phelps3,84981.98%57212.18%2745.84%3,27769.80%4,695Pierce3,05284.08%38210.52%1965.40%2,67073.56%3,630Platte10,96575.97%2,64618.33%8225.70%8,31957.64%14,433Polk2,02878.54%41316.00%1415.46%1,61562.54%2,582Red Willow4,25882.28%64512.46%2725.26%3,61369.82%5,175Richardson2,76972.77%81821.50%2185.73%1,95151.27%3,805Rock68786.09%708.77%415.14%61777.32%798Saline3,00458.49%1,73333.74%3997.77%1,27124.75%5,136Sarpy45,14356.02%28,03334.79%7,4049.19%17,11021.23%80,580Saunders7,55569.57%2,52323.23%7827.20%5,03246.34%10,860Scotts Bluff10,07670.38%3,20722.40%1,0347.22%6,86947.98%14,317Seward5,45468.85%1,87523.67%5937.48%3,57945.18%7,922Sheridan2,21184.78%28711.00%1104.22%1,92473.78%2,608Sherman1,15073.11%34021.61%835.28%81051.50%1,573Sioux61683.70%8111.01%395.29%53572.69%736Stanton2,18778.08%41714.89%1977.03%1,77063.19%2,801Thayer2,05176.25%49918.55%1405.20%1,55257.70%2,690Thomas34487.53%307.63%194.84%31479.90%393Thurston1,04349.95%91944.01%1266.04%1245.94%2,088Valley1,78080.73%33915.37%863.90%1,44165.36%2,205Washington7,42468.54%2,62324.22%7857.24%4,80144.32%10,832Wayne2,69371.32%83522.11%2486.57%1,85849.21%3,776Webster1,33077.87%30617.92%724.21%1,02459.95%1,708Wheeler37781.08%6213.33%265.59%31567.75%465York4,70073.66%1,18618.59%4957.75%3,51455.07%6,381Totals495,96158.75%284,49433.70%63,7777.55%211,46725.05%844,232
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Thurston (largest village: Pender)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Douglas (largest city: Omaha) Lancaster (largest city: Lincoln)
By congressional district Trump won all of the state's three congressional districts, winning all of the state's electoral votes. District Trump Clinton Representative 56% 35%Jeff Fortenberry47%45%Brad AshfordDon Bacon 74% 20%Adrian Smith
Analysis
Although Trump won Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2016, the district shifted significantly leftward, and Clinton lost it by just 2%. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Douglas or Lancaster County since William Howard Taft in 1908.
This was because Douglas and Lancaster counties, which are in the district, are two of the most highly educated counties in Nebraska. Trump underperformed among white voters with college degrees in 2016. In 2020 and 2024 Democrats won a majority of white voters with college degrees, and were thus able to win the district in those elections.
See also United States presidential elections in Nebraska First presidency of Donald Trump 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References
External links RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions