The 2016 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence, against the Democratic nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Trump carried the state with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote, which included a 1.2% winning margin over Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote. Trump consequently became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate to carry St. Lucie County since 1992, and the first to carry Jefferson and Monroe Counties since 1988; all three of these counties were last carried by George H. W. Bush.

Florida voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 1.20%. It was the fifth-closest state result, with only Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closer. According to the National Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from the Cuban-American voters in the state—in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump, Pew Research Center, November 15, 2016. This was the first time Florida voted for a Republican who lost the popular vote since the infamous 2000 election in Florida, when the Republican candidate also won the election while losing the popular vote. As of 2024, this was the last presidential election in which Florida voted to the left of neighboring Georgia. In 2016, Georgia swung leftward by 2.7% despite not being seriously contested, while Florida swung rightward by 2%.

This is the closest election contested by any of Trump's three Democratic opponents in his presidential bids, as the Florida electorate has decisively swung to the right in the Trump political era. Trump won a majority of the vote in the state in 2020 and won the state by double digits in 2024. Relatedly, this would be the last time Trump ran for president as a resident of another state (New York) rather than of Florida.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Democratic debate March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida Candidate Airtime PollsRealClearPolitics.com"Clinton23:2951.0%Sanders17:5139.6% The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post. The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen." The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.

Opinion polling

Results

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

+ Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016 District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates 1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1 2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2 3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2 4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2 5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2 6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2 7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2 8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2 9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2 10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2 11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2 12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2 13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2 14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2 15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2 16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2 17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1 18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2 19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1 20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1 21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2 22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2 23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2 24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2 25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1 26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1 27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1 Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47 PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10 At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16 Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73 Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Republican primary

Republican debate March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida

Candidate Airtime Polls Trump 28:11 38.6% Cruz 21:42 21.8% Rubio 21:23 18.0% Kasich 18:49 12.0%

The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor Stephen Dinan. The Washington Times cohosted the debate. The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field. On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign." This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.

Polling

Results

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: .

Green primary The Green Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.

On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary via instant-runoff voting. + Green Party of Florida primary – first round Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates Jill Stein 18 52.9% Elijah Manley 14 41.2% William Kreml 1 2.94% Kent Mesplay 1 2.94% Sedinam Curry 0 Darryl Cherney 0 Total 34 100%

+ Green Party of Florida primary – second round Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates Jill Stein 19 55.9% Elijah Manley 14 41.2% William Kreml 1 2.94% Total 34 100

+ Green Party of Florida primary – third round Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates Jill Stein 20 58.8% 15 Elijah Manley 14 41.2% 10 Total 34 100 25

General election Predictions The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.

SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles TimesNovember 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016NBCNovember 8, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016ABCNovember 7, 2016

Polling

In early polling conducted in late 2015, Trump started with strong momentum and won almost every poll against Clinton by margins varying from 2 to 8 points. In March 2016, Trump's early momentum seemed to slow, as Clinton won every poll until June 2016, when Trump won a poll 45% to 44%. Most polling conducted throughout the summer was favorable to Clinton, but both candidates were neck and neck in late August and early September, with neither having a consistent lead. From mid September to October 20, Clinton won every poll but one. In the last weeks, polling was extremely close, with neither candidate taking the lead. The third to last and fourth to last poll ended in a tie, but Trump won the last poll 50% to 46%. The average of the last three polls showed Trump ahead 47.3% to 46.7%, where the race was essentially tied.

Results

By county