The 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.
Incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul filed for re-election in December 2015, and Mayor Jim Gray of Lexington filed to run against Paul for the Senate in late January 2016. In the general election, Paul defeated Gray by 14.5 points.
Background If Paul had become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law would have prohibited him from simultaneously running for re-election. In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up. Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic governor Steve Beshear's veto could have been overridden with a simple majority). However, the Democrats retained their 54–46 majority in the State House.
Paul was running for both president and re-election, and considered several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, but he dropped his presidential bid to focus on re-election to the Senate on February 3, 2016. His supporters said the law does not apply to federal offices and suggested changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination. However, this option would have only worked until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have had to appear on the ballot twice in November if he had won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options that were open to him included running for both offices and leaving it to Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican secretary of state who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he could have run for re-election and hoped to win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.
In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as vice president on Mitt Romney's ticket. David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.
In August 2015, the central committee of the Kentucky Republican Party voted to hold a caucus in 2016, allowing Paul to simultaneously run for re-nomination for his seat and the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. State law would still bar Paul from appearing twice on the ballot in the general election. However, on February 3, 2016, Rand Paul dropped out of the 2016 presidential campaign, allowing him to focus on his reelection bid.
Republican primary Candidates Declared James Gould, financial analyst and Navy veteran Rand Paul, incumbent U.S. Senator Stephen Slaughter, engineer
Declined Catherine Todd Bailey, businesswoman and former United States Ambassador to Latvia Andy Barr, U.S. Representative James Comer, former Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2015 (running for KY-01) Mike Duncan, former chairman of the Republican National Committee Trey Grayson, former director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative Hal Heiner, Kentucky Secretary of Education and Workforce Development, former Louisville Metro Council member and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2015 Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative Hal Rogers, U.S. Representative Ed Whitfield, U.S. Representative
Endorsements
Results
Democratic primary Candidates Declared Jim Gray, Mayor of Lexington Rory Houlihan Jeff Kender, steelworker Ron Leach, physician assistant, U.S. Army veteran, and nominee for KY-02 in 2014 Tom Recktenwald, retired technology teacher and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Grant Short, pilot and businessman Sellus Wilder, former Frankfort City Commissioner
Declined Rocky Adkins, Majority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives (running for reelection) Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015 Adam Edelen, former state auditor of Kentucky Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Heather French Henry, former Commissioner of the Kentucky Department of Veterans Affairs and former Miss America Andrew Horne, attorney, retired United States Marine Corps lieutenant colonel and candidate for KY-03 in 2006 Ashley Judd, actress and political activist Crit Luallen, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts Jennifer Moore, former Chairwoman of the Kentucky Democratic Party Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former Attorney General of Kentucky (running for reelection) David Tandy, President of the Louisville Metro Council
Endorsements
Results
General election Debates Dates Location Paul Gray LinkOctober 31, 2016Lexington, KentuckyParticipantParticipantFull debate
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 2, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2016
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandPaul (R) JimGray (D) UndecidedSurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,315 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,155 ± 4.6% 51% 46% 3%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 843 ± 4.6% 52% 45% 3%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 499 ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 52% 46% 2%Western Kentucky UniversityWestern Kentucky University October 25–30, 2016 602 ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%RunSwitch Public Relations (R)RunSwitch Public Relations (R) October 26–28, 2016 811 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 6%Cofounder Pulse PollCofounder Pulse Poll October 26–28, 2016 1,016 ± 3.8% 35% 28% 38%Cofounder Pulse PollCofounder Pulse Poll October 12–15, 2016 816 ± 3.4% 33% 27% 40%Cofounder Pulse PollCofounder Pulse Poll September 14–16, 2016 834 ± 3.2% 33% 25% 42%Cofounder Pulse PollCofounder Pulse Poll August 2–4, 2016 508 ± 3.6% 59% 41% 0%Harper PollingHarper Polling July 31–August 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 13%Cofounder Pulse PollCofounder Pulse Poll March 30–April 1, 2016 758 ± 3.0% 28% 26% 47%
with Thomas Massie Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ThomasMassie (R) SteveBeshear (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 38% 43% — 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 30% 45% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ThomasMassie (R) CritLuallen (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 37% 35% — 28% with Rand Paul Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandPaul (R) SteveBeshear (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 49% 39% — 12%Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 50% 41% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandPaul (R) CritLuallen (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 51% 37% — 12%
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Carroll (largest city: Carrollton) Breathitt (largest city: Jackson) Carter (largest city: Grayson) Hancock (largest city: Hawesville) Magoffin (largest city: Salyersville) Powell (largest city: Stanton) McLean (largest city: Livermore) Morgan (largest city: West Liberty) Knott (largest municipality: Hindman) Henderson (largest city: Henderson) Muhlenberg (largest city: Central City) Floyd (largest municipality: Prestonburg) Fleming (largest city: Flemingsburg) Lincoln (largest city: Stanford) Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville) Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg) Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton) Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet) (previously tied)
By congressional district Paul won four of six congressional districts, with the remaining two going to Gray, including one that elected a Republican.
District Paul Gray Representative 66% 34%James Comer 61% 39%Brett Guthrie 40% 60%John Yarmuth 66% 34%Thomas Massie 66% 34%Hal Rogers 48% 52%Andy Barr
References
External links Official campaign websites (archived)
Jim Gray (D) for Senate