The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Brewer ascended to the governorship following the resignation of the incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano to become secretary of Homeland Security in the Obama Administration. Primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.
Background Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term-limited and nominated to become secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.
Democratic primary
Candidates Declared Terry Goddard, state attorney general, former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994
Declined Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe Phil Gordon, mayor of Phoenix
Republican primary The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.
Candidates Declared Jan Brewer, incumbent governor Matt Jette
Withdrew Dean Martin, Arizona state treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer) Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)
Declined Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County sheriff J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. representative John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party Vernon Parker, mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress) Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona
Polling Poll source Dates administered Jan Brewer (inc.) Dean Martin* Buz Mills*Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports June 16, 2010 72% 12% 16%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 17, 2010 45% 18% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 23–25, 2010 25% 15% 11% 58% 16% 19%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports April 13, 2010 26% 12% 18%Rasmussen Reports March 15, 2010 20% 21% 19%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports January 20, 2010 29% 27% —Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports November 18, 2009 10% 22% —Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 21, 2009 39% 26% — * Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination
Results
* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot
Libertarian primary
Candidates Ronald Cavanaugh Barry Hess Bruce Olsen Alvin Ray Yount
Results
General election
Candidates Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor Larry Gist (G) Terry Goddard (D), attorney general Barry Hess (L)
Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 14, 2010 Rothenberg October 28, 2010 RealClearPolitics November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 28, 2010 CQ Politics October 28, 2010
Polling
Poll source Dates administered Terry Goddard (D) Jan Brewer (R)Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 28, 2010 39% 53%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 23–24, 2010 44% 52%BRC PollsBRC Polls October 11, 2010 35% 38%Rasmussen Reports October 3, 2010 39% 55%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 7, 2010 38% 60%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 25, 2010 38% 57%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports July 21, 2010 37% 56%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports June 29, 2010 35% 53%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 17, 2010 39% 52%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports April 27, 2010 40% 48%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 23–25, 2010 47% 44%Rasmussen Reports April 14, 2010 40% 44%Rasmussen Reports March 16, 2010 45% 43%Rasmussen Reports January 20, 2010 43% 42%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports November 18, 2009 44% 42%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 27, 2009 42% 40%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 7, 2009 46% 36%
Debate On September 1, the first and only debate was held among all four candidates, moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Afterward, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.
Results
CountyJan BrewerRepublicanTerry GoddardDemocraticBarry HessLibertarianLarry GistGreenWrite-inMarginTotalvotes#%#%#%#%#%#%Apache7,00233.8912,83962.145142.482941.4100.04-5,837-28.2520,659Cochise24,97462.3213,95434.827421.853980.9920.0011,02027.5040,070Coconino16,75443.0220,79253.398802.255051.27130.01-4,038-10.3738,942Gila11,16362.266,15534.324512.511580.8820.015,00827.9417,929Graham5,99465.482,86531.302202.40740.8000.003,12934.189,153Greenlee1,18748.481,17748.08602.45240.9800.00100.402,448La Paz3,04867.311,33029.37801.76701.5400.001,71837.944,528Maricopa543,04554.78415,14241.8824,0772.428,6000.862800.02127,90312.90991,144Mohave39,02672.6512,77723.781,3072.436011.1140.0026,24948.8753,715Navajo16,15754.4912,51742.226482.183171.0670.023,64012.2729,646Pima148,91647.18158,33750.176480.203170.10160.00-9,421-2.99315,589Pinal45,80758.2830,10938.3119222.447350.93180.0215,69819.9778,591Santa Cruz3,19031.766,60865.811381.371051.0400.00-3,418-34.0510,041Yavapai53,08165.2125,56931.411,8302.249001.1080.0027,51233.8081,388Yuma19,59057.2213,76440.205001.463801.1020.005,82617.0234,236 Totals938,93454.33733,93542.4338,7222.2416,1280.933620.02204,99911.901,728,081 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista) Gila (Largest city: Payson) Graham (Largest city: Safford) Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton) La Paz (Largest city: Parker) Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix) Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City) Navajo (Largest city: Show Low) Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley) Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley) Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)
References
External links Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports 2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics 2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money Race Profile in The New York Times Debates Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00) Official campaign sites Jan Brewer for Governor Terry Goddard for Governor