The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) was the program responsible for coordinating and integrating research on global warming by U.S. government agencies from February 2002 to June 2009.Climate Change Science Program 2006. Overview of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Fact Sheet 1. Washington, DC (January) Toward the end of that period, CCSP issued 21 separate climate assessment reports that addressed climate observations, changes in the atmosphere, expected climate change, impacts and adaptation, and risk management issues. Shortly after President Obama took office, the program's name was changed to U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) which was also the program's name before 2002. Nevertheless, the Obama Administration generally embraced the CCSP products as sound science providing a basis for climate policy.See Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Because those reports were mostly issued after the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and in some cases focused specifically on the United States, they were generally viewed within the United States as having an importance and scientific credibility comparable to the IPCC assessments for the first few years of the Obama Administration.For example, see Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act: Technical Support Document 2009. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DC (December)
The products The primary outputs from the CCSP were its strategic plan and 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP), five of which were released on January 16, 2009, the last business day of the Bush Administration.Climate Change Science Program 2009. Information on Synthesis and Assessment Products The CCSP Strategic Plan of 2003U.S. Climate Change Science Program , 2003. Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, DC. See also Press release of 24 July 2003 defined five goals: Extend knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed changes (see Observations and causes of climate change), Improve understanding of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems (see Changes in the atmosphere) Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future (see Climate projections) Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed systems to climate and associated global changes (see Impacts and adaptation) Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change (see Using information to manage risks) The plan also proposed 21 SAP's, each of which were designed to support one of these five goals. The plan was updated in 2008.Climate Change Science Program. 2008 Revised Research Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Washington, DC The following sections discuss the SAP's, grouped according to the five topic areas.
Observations and causes of climate change Three SAP's evaluated observations of climate change and our ability to definitively attribute the causes of these changes.
Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere (SAP 1.1) NOAA released the first of 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment reports in May 2006, entitled Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences.CCSP 2006 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray (editors) Asheville, North Carolina: National Climatic Data Center. 164 pp. The report identified and corrected errors in satellite temperature measurements and other temperature observations, which increased scientific confidence in the conclusion that lower atmosphere is warming on a global scale: "There is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere," said the report, "the observed patterns of change over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural processes alone".Press release of 2 May 2006 from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The report also said that "all current atmospheric data sets now show global-average warming that is similar to the surface warming. While these data are consistent with the results from climate models at the global scale, discrepancies in the tropics remain to be resolved."
The Arctic and other high latitude areas (SAP 1.2) On January 16, 2009 (the last business day of the Bush Administration), USGS released Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes.CCSP, 2009. Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. Alley R.B., Brigham-Grette J., Miller G.H., Polyak L., and White J.W.C. U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, DC. 270 pp. According to the USGS press release,U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Communication Arctic Heats Up More than Other Places, January 16, 2009 the report shows that: The Arctic has recently been warming about as rapidly as it has ever warned throughout the entire record of past Arctic climate. The loss of sea ice during summers over the last few decades is highly unusual compared to the last few thousand years. Changes in Earth's orbit alone would have increased summer sea ice. Sustained warming of at least 2 to 7 °C would be likely to eventually melt the entire Greenland ice sheet, which would raise sea level by several meters. The past tells us that when thresholds in the climate system are crossed, climate change can be very large and very fast. No one knows whether human activities will trigger such events in the coming decades and centuries.
Attribution of the causes of observed climate change (SAP 1.3) NOAA released Re-Analyses of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for attribution of causes of observed changeCCSP, 2008 Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change. Randall Dole, Martin Hoerling, and Siegfried Schubert (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 156 pp. in December 2008. According to the report, from 1951 to 2006 the yearly average temperature for North America increased by 1.6°Fahrenheit, with virtually all of the warmingsince 1970. During this period, the average temperature has warmed approximately 3.6 °F over Alaska, the Yukon Territories, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, but no significant warming occurred in the southern United States or eastern Canada. More than half of the warming of North America is likely (more than 66 percent chance) to have resulted from human activity.
There is less evidence that precipitation is changing. The report found no significant trend in North American precipitation since 1951, although there have been substantial changes from year to year and even decade to decade. Moreover, it is unlikely that a fundamental change has occurred in either how often or where severe droughts have occurred over the continental United States during the past half-century. Nevertheless, drought impacts have likely become more severe in recent decades. It is likely that the impacts have been more severe because the recent droughts have lasted a few years, and because warmer temperatures have created stresses in plants, which make them more vulnerable.
Changes in the atmosphere
Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations (SAP 2.1) The US Department of Energy released the second SAP in July 2007, entitled Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application.CCSP SAP 2.1 web page Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application This two-volume report explored emission scenarios that could stabilize the net effect of greenhouse gases at four different levels. It also outlined key principles and approaches for developing global change scenarios. The two reports were each written by a subset of the members of the Climate Change Science Program Product Development Advisory Committee, a panel organized under the Federal Advisory Committee Act.CCSP 2007 . Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application. Washington, DC. United States Department of Energy
The report's executive summary stated that the emission reductions necessary to stabilize radiative climate forcing would "require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy... and changes in the mix of energy technologies and fuels." But the authors found great uncertainty in the price that would be necessary to stabilize climate forcing—as well as the resulting economic cost: " These differences are illustrative of some of the unavoidable uncertainties in long-term scenarios."
Other synthesis and assessment products In addition to SAP 2.1, CCSP produced three other reports to further the goal of improving quantification of climate forcing: NOAA released "North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle" CCSP 2007. The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. King, A.W., L. Dilling, G.P. Zimmerman, D.M. Fairman, R.A. Houghton, G. Marland, A.Z. Rose, and T.J. Wilbanks (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 242 pp. (SAP 2.2) in November 2007. NASA released "Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts" CCSP 2009 Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts. Mian Chin, Ralph A. Kahn, and Stephen E. Schwartz (editors). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC. 128 pp. (SAP 2.3) on January 16, 2009. NOAA released "Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure"CCSP, 2008 Trends in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Ozone Layer Recovery, and Implications for Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure. Ravishankara, A.R., M.J. Kurylo, and C.A. Ennis (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 240 pp. (SAP 2.4) in November 2008.
Climate projections As provided in the CCSP strategic plan, four SAP's examined issues under CCSP's Goal 3: DOE released "Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations." CCSP 2008. Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations. Bader, DC, Covey, C., Gutowski, W.J., Held, I.M., Kunkel, K.E., Miller, R.L, Tokmakian, R.T., and Zhang, M.H. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC. 124 pp.] (SAP 3.1) in July 2008. NOAA released "Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols."CCSP, 2008 Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols. H. Levy II, D.T. Shindell, A. Gilliland, M.D. Schwarzkopf, and L.W. Horowitz, (editor). National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 100 pp. (SAP 3.2) in September 2008. NOAA released "Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands." CCSP, 2008. Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols. H. Levy II, D.T. Shindell, A. Gilliland, M.D. Schwarzkopf, L.W. Horowitz, (editors). National Climatic Data Center, Washington, DC. 100 pp. (SAP 3.3) in June 2008.