Target ridings in the 2006 Canadian federal election

The 39th Canadian federal election was held on January 23, 2006.

The target ridings are the ridings that were won by a narrow margin in the preceding election, making them promising campaign targets in the election in question. Below is the list target ridings for the 2006 federal election that were narrowly lost by each major party in the 2004 election, with indications whether they were won or lost by the incumbent in the 2006 election.

Up to 30 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%. For example, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning in 2004 but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious in 2004 (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, between the winning candidate and the runner-up. Finally, the 2006 election winners are listed in italics. Bold ridings indicate successful gains.

To clarify further; this is a list of 2004 federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin of victory as a percentage of the vote.

* Indicates incumbent did not seek re-election.

Liberal Party Conservative PartySimcoe—Grey, ON (Cons) 0.18% → Cons Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre, SK (Cons) 0.39% → Cons Cambridge, ON (Cons) 0.43% → Cons Kildonan—St. Paul, MB (Cons) 0.77% → Cons Burnaby—New Westminster, BC (NDP) 0.79% → NDP Saskatoon—Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.23% → Cons Newton—North Delta, BC (Cons) 1.26%* → Lib Niagara West—Glanbrook, ON (Cons) 1.28% → Cons Newmarket—Aurora, ON (Lib) 1.34% (Cons. MP Belinda Stronach later joined the Libs.) → Lib Essex, ON (Cons) 1.61% → Cons Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia, MB (Cons) 1.74% → Cons Sault Ste. Marie, ON (NDP) 1.75% → NDP Timmins-James Bay, ON (NDP) 1.80% → NDP Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, QC (BQ) 1.89% → BQ Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, QC (BQ) 2.057% → BQ Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.060% → NDP Niagara Falls, ON (Cons) 2.21% → Cons Halifax, NS (NDP) 2.43% → NDP Durham, ON (Cons) 2.48% → Cons Oshawa, ON (Cons) 2.74% → Cons West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC (Cons) 2.78%* → Lib Haldimand—Norfolk, ON (Cons) 3.30% → Cons Dufferin—Caledon, ON (Cons) 3.80% → Cons St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL (Cons) 4.31% → Cons Wellington—Halton Hills, ON (Cons) 4.59% → Cons St. John's East, NL (Cons) 4.75% → Cons Prince Edward—Hastings, ON (Cons) 4.79% → Cons Toronto—Danforth, ON (NDP) 5.00% → NDP Churchill (NDP/Ind.) 5.08% → Lib Vaudreuil—Soulanges, QC (BQ) 5.50% → BQEdmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, AB (Lib/Ind.) 0.3%* → Cons Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, ON (Lib) 0.3%* → Cons Northumberland—Quinte West, ON (Lib) 0.6% → Cons Chatham-Kent—Essex, ON (Lib) 0.9%* → Cons Edmonton Centre, AB (Lib) 1.4% → Cons Ottawa West—Nepean, ON (Lib) 2.4%* → Cons Barrie, ON (Lib) 2.6% → Cons North Vancouver, BC (Lib) 3.6% → Lib Ottawa—Orléans, ON (Lib) 4.7% → Cons Brant, ON (Lib) 5.0% → Lib Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON (Lib) 5.1% → Cons Nipissing—Timiskaming, ON (Lib) 5.2% → Lib Brampton West, ON (Lib) 5.3% → Lib Burnaby—New Westminster, BC (NDP) 5.4% → NDP Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 5.5%* → NDP Simcoe North, ON (Lib) 5.7%* → Cons St. Catharines, ON (Lib) 5.7% → Cons Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, NL (Lib) 6.6% → Lib Burlington, ON (Lib) 6.7% → Cons Kitchener—Conestoga, ON (Lib) 6.9% → Cons Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC (BQ) 7.3% → Cons Parry Sound-Muskoka, ON (Lib) 7.5% → Cons Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Lib) 8.6% → Cons Whitby—Oshawa, ON (Lib) 9.0% → Cons Ottawa South, ON (Lib) 9.0% → Lib Richmond, BC (Lib) 9.2% → Lib West Nova, NS (Lib) 9.6% → Lib Saint John, NB (Lib) 9.7% → Lib Halton, ON (Lib) 10.0% → Cons Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON (Lib) 10.4%* → Cons Bloc Québécois New Democratic PartyJeanne-Le Ber, QC (Lib) 0.2% → BQ Papineau, QC (Lib) 1.1% → BQ Gatineau, QC (Lib) 1.8% → BQ Brome—Missisquoi, QC (Lib) 2.4% → BQ Ahuntsic, QC (Lib) 2.5% → BQ Brossard—La Prairie, QC (Lib) 4.9% → BQ Beauce, QC (Lib) 5.1%* → Cons Honoré-Mercier, QC (Lib) 5.7% → Lib Outremont, QC (Lib) 7.7% → Lib Pontiac, QC (Lib) 9.2% → Cons Hull—Aylmer, QC (Lib) 9.4% → Lib Laval—Les Îles, QC (Lib) 10.8% → Lib Bourassa, QC (Lib) 12.2% → LibWestern Arctic, NT (Lib) 0.3% → NDP New Westminster—Coquitlam, BC (Cons) 0.3% → NDP Palliser, SK (Cons) 0.4% → Cons Vancouver Island North, BC (Cons) 0.9% → NDP Oshawa, ON (Cons) 1.0% → Cons Saskatoon—Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.1% → Cons British Columbia Southern Interior, BC (Cons) 1.5%* → NDP Trinity—Spadina, ON (Lib) 1.6% → NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON (Lib) 1.9% → NDP Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 1.9% → NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC (Lib) 3.1% → Lib Regina—Qu'Appelle, SK (Cons) 3.1% → Cons Newton—North Delta, BC (Cons) 3.6%* → Lib Victoria, BC (Lib) 3.9%* → NDP Kenora, ON (Lib) 4.1% → Lib Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.7% → Lib Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission, BC (Cons) 5.8% → Cons Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre, SK (Cons) 6.4% → Cons Nanaimo—Alberni, BC (Cons) 6.8% → Cons Parkdale—High Park, ON (Lib) 7.6% → NDP London—Fanshawe, ON (Lib) 7.7%* → NDP Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Cons) 7.8% → Cons Nickel Belt, ON (Lib) 7.9% → Lib Vancouver Centre, BC (Lib) 8.0% → Lib Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Cons) 8.6% → Cons Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, ON (Lib) 9.2% → Lib Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (Lib) 9.6% → Lib Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON (Lib) 9.7% → Lib Welland, ON (Lib) 10.1% → Lib Random—Burin—St. George's, NL (Lib) 13.5% → Lib

Cabinet ministers who won by less than 5% in 2004 Liza Frulla, Canadian Heritage: 0.2% over BQ in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC (defeated in 2006) Ethel Blondin-Andrew, Northern Development: 0.3% over NDP in Western Arctic, NT (defeated in 2006) Pierre Pettigrew, Foreign Affairs: 1.1% over BQ in Papineau, QC (defeated in 2006) Belinda Stronach, Human Resources and Skills Development: 1.3% over Lib in Newmarket—Aurora, ON; elected as a Conservative, Stronach defected to the Liberals on May 17, 2005. (re-elected in 2006) Anne McLellan, Deputy PM/Public Safety: 1.4% over Cons. in Edmonton Centre, AB (defeated in 2006) Tony Valeri, House Leader, 1.9% over NDP in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON (defeated in 2006) Aileen Carroll, International Cooperation, 2.6% over Cons. in Barrie, ON (defeated in 2006) David Emerson, Industry, 3.1% over NDP in Vancouver Kingsway, BC (re-elected in 2006) Jacques Saada, Quebec Economic Development, 4.9% over BQ in Brossard—La Prairie, QC (defeated in 2006)

References