On 23 September 2026, the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival, a coalition of various Ethiopian rebel and insurgent groups, launched a large-scale military offensive against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in Tigray, Afar and Amhara. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) described the offensive as a defensive war against the federal government of Ethiopia. The offensive marks the largest escalation in fighting since the Tigray war (20202022), which killed an estimated 600,000 people.

Background

Tigray war and Pretoria agreement

The TPLF was effectively the ruling party of Ethiopia, dominating the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) from 19912018. In 2018, Abiy Ahmed was elected leader of the EPDRF and thus became prime minister. The Tigray war took place under Abiy's leadership from November 2020 to November 2022, when Ethiopia and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement. The situation remained unstable, with officials from the Amhara Region continuing to occupy Western Tigray and the government launching a series of drone strikes in 2025 while the TPLF amassed troops at the border.

In May 2025, the TPLF declared the restoration of the pre-war administration and installed the TPLF's chairman Debretsion Gebremichael as Tigray's regional president, creating a rival government to that of the pro-government Interim Regional Administration of Tigray.

2026 clashes and escalation In late January and early February 2026, days-long clashes erupted in Tigray between the TPLF and the ENDF, in what Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) described as the most significant fighting between the two since full-scale war. Relations between the gentral government and TPLF continued to deteriorate, and by mid-July the TPLF declared the Pretoria agreement "effectively dead".

On 1 August, a battle lasting several hours broke out between the ENDF and the TPLF near the Sudan border. In subsequent weeks, the ENDF carried out numerous drone strikes in Tigray. The regional capital of Mekelle was hit by a series of drone strikes in late August, including an attack on 20 August against a residential compound with no obvious military targets that wounded 13 civilians.

Offensive

Rebel coalition and Alamata school strikes On 20 September 2026, the formation of a seven-member alliance of Ethiopian rebel groups from Tigray and the Somali Region, the Ethiopian People's Forces Coalition for Survival (EPFAS), was announced. The coalition was declared to include the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (per Al Jazeera English) or the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (per Addis Standard), the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement (GPDM). The coalition, consisting of some members which fought against each other during the 2020–2022 Tigray war, pledged to overthrow the Abiy Ahmed-led government towards establishing a transitional government. Eritrean officials denied involvement in the formation of the coalition. Furthermore, despite concluding that EPFAS would indeed concern the government and would likely not agree to de-escalation measures, experts questioned the group's collaborative capabilities. On 26 September, GPDM denied membership of the coalition. The ONLF faction led by Abdirahman Mohamed Sheikh Mahdi asserted ONLF membership of the coalition, while the Jijiga-based ONLF faction led by Abdikarin Sheikh Muse Qalbidhagax denied ONLF membership.

On 22 September, Ethiopia launched at least five drones and carried out more than 21 airstrikes; two of the drone strikes hit two schools in Alamata, and left at least 14 civilians dead and injured 22 others. After the strikes, the TPLF accused the government of launching an "open invasion" and declared the start of a "defensive war" in response.

Timeline 23 September On the morning of 23 September, the TDF launched an offensive and seized the airports of Axum, Shire, and the Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle in Tigray, causing Ethiopian Airlines to cancel all flights to the region. The TDF also launched offensives on government positions in the nearby regions of Afar and Amhara, including Zata, Dinqa, and Soqota on the TigrayAmhara border, and Taunsa near the TigrayAfar border. Fighting broke out along the Kobo–Tumuga front between ENDF and a joint force of the TDF and the AFNM.

The regional government of Afar said that Afari forces would defend themselves from the TDF-led invasion. In neighboring Amhara, government forces were launching strikes using heavy weapons in Lalibela. The firing targeted Fano militants, as they conducted an offensive. According to Washington Examiner, EPFAS alleged that all of its factions carried out attacks in their respective regions, including the OLA.

24 September

On 24 September, fighting continued along the Tigray–Afar border and in parts of the Amhara region. In Amhara, clashes were reported in Gazgibela woreda in the Wag Hemra Zone, as well as Gidan, Lasta, and Raya Kobo woredas in the North Wollo Zone. The fighting involved the ENDF, the Tigray Peace Force, Amhara Riot Police, and local militias on one side, and the AFNM and TDF on the other. A new front also opened near the Tekezé River in western Tigray. On the same day, Fano insurgents captured Melese Ashagirea, a Colonel for the Ethiopian Army in Amhara.

Fighting also occurred near Lalibela, southwest of Alamata, has caused the ENDF to close the Lalibela airport. The rebel forces attempted to advance to Sekota, west of Alamata, but the ENDF reportedly repelled the offensive. ACLED reported that the ENDF and TDF clashed near Tselimoy, southwest of Shire. The ENDF also conducted airstrikes in the area.

25 September On 25 September, Fano insurgents claimed to have captured two ENDF colonels, Meles Ashagrie and deputy commander Edmealem Amare, during fighting in North Wollo, Amhara. According to Fano, the officers and their remaining troops were surrounded while retreating after suffering a defeat. Fano also claimed to have seized 10 Ural military trucks and weapons, including artillery ammunition, while destroying two additional trucks. In Afar, clashes were reported in Yalo, while a drone strike hit Hayelom Tabia, Sheraro, Tigray. At the orders of the TPLF, Safaricom and Ethio Telecom cut off access ⁠to phone and internet networks in Tigray.

26 September The Gumuz People's Democratic Movement stated that it doesn't have an armed wing and that it is not a member of the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival.

There was fighting in Abala, on the Afar side of the Tigray–Afar border, the during the night from 25–26 September. The ENDF said that it had killed 270 opposition fighters in Amhara.

27 September

On 27 September, the ENDF reportedly recaptured the strategic town of Sekota from Tigrayan forces. Fighting continued around Sama, Soqota and Raya Alamata, with government forces reportedly advancing towards Alamata. In the Afar Region, fighting also continued around Abala.

In Afar, a humanitarian source told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that Erebti had been captured by Tigrayan forces following heavy fighting involving artillery and that the forces were subsequently advancing towards Afdera. On the same day, a drone struck the headquarters of Tigrai TV in Mekelle, damaging the building and forcing the station off air. No casualties were immediately reported. Later that day, a drone, suspected to have been launched from rebel forces, struck the Debre Zeit Air Force Base while Abiy Ahmed was at the compound celebrating a holiday. Three casualties have reportedly been recorded.

28 September On 28 September, the Tigray Peace Force announced the capture of the city of Alamata, in Southern Tigray. During the clashes in Alamata, at least 52 civilians were killed.

29 September The governor of the Afar region, Awol Arba, accused the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) of infiltrating the region and stated that they were allegedly attempting to cut a road linking Djibouti and Ethiopia. Eritrea did not respond to the immediate accusations. The governor of Afar Region told Al Jazeera that 2/3 of the region is under Eritrean control. The Eritrean opposition group Brigade Nhamedu responded to the reports stating their condemnation in the alleged Eritrean direct involvement in the offensive. Despite these statements, independent mapping and conflict data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data did not indicate the presence of a large Eritrean offensive, contrasting with the claims.

30 September About 20 Israeli tourists stranded in Lalibela amid the fighting were evacuated by helicopter to a safe area, following three days of efforts by the Israeli Foreign Ministry and embassy in Addis Ababa. The tourists couldn't leave because flights from the area were suspended due to the fighting.

1 October In Addis Ababa, explosions were heard after drone strikes were conducted by rebel forces in the region. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs then ordered the closure of the Eritrean embassy in Addis Ababa after accusing them of "direct and indirect hostility", which caused Ethiopia and Eritrea to break ties. On the same day, pro-government forces regained control of Abala and Erebti towns in the Afar region. The OSINT research group Hamer Intel reported the existence of an "Eritrean incursion" in Northern Afar region, without confirming its size.

2 October During a BBC interview, an unnamed pro-government militia commander fighting in Tigray stated that there were Eritrean troops fighting in the area alongside the rebels. The Eritrean Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel denied the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray Region. 3–4 October According to Reuters, the ENDF recaptured Mekelle's Alula Aba Nega Airport, with the city being encircled by ENDF and pro-government militias. The Ethiopian federal forces entered Mekelle after TPLF militants withdrew and abandoned the city. The Ethiopian state-affiliated outlet Horn Review noted how the Eritrean army allegedly had broken into Ethiopian territory through the Assab-Bure front to the border Afar towns of Berhale and Dallol, allegedly reaching up to away from Adigrat.

5 October Following the TPLF retreat from Adigrat, forces from the ENDF mobilized along the Eritrean border.

7 October Ethiopian government sources and witnesses in Adigrat stated that the EDF had entered Adigrat and several towns near the Ethiopian–Eritrean border. Eritrean Minister of Information, Yemane Gebremeskel, denied that the EDF had entered Ethiopia. He said that claims of the EDF entering Ethiopian territory were a pretext for Ethiopia to invade Eritrea. According to ACLED, ENDF drone strikes targeted Eritrean forces as they traveled towards Idaga Hamus.

Peace process

The takeover of the three Tigray Region airports by Tigrayan forces was a violation of the Pretoria Agreement according to the African Union (AU) Commission (AUC) chairperson, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. On 23 September 2026, Youssouf requested Olusegun Obasanjo, African Union High Representative for the Horn of Africa, to carry out negotiations to preserve the peace process. On 2 October, Amnesty International called for the AU Peace and Security Council to hold an emergency session, arguing that the AU "was one of the guarantors" of the Pretoria Agreement.

Consequences

Withdrawal from Somalia

Bloomberg reported that Ethiopia plans to withdraw 3,000 soldiers from Somalia. Somalia said it had been not informed of such plans. It was not immediately known whether or how a withdrawal would impact the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia or other, bilateral deployments.

Diplomatic crisis with Eritrea