The 2026–2027 El Niño is the ongoing El Niño event, with its onset declared on 2 June 2026 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is the strongest El Niño ever measured for its time of year, and the World Meteorological Organization has reported that it will likely be the strongest El Niño on record, with it already being classified as a "very strong El Niño", also known as a Super El Niño. The 2026-2027 El Niño is expected to peak in November or December and last through early 2027.
Background
El Niño is defined as when the Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) in the Niño 3.4 region is greater than 0.5 °C for five three-month averaged periods in a row.
A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral in early 2026, but was rapidly transitioning to El Niño by May, according to Columbia University's Climate School. Computer modeling in late May by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the development of an El Niño event was likely by the July through September peak of the Pacific hurricane season. The Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) ENSO plume forecast gave a 98% probability of El Niño forming and a 97%-98% probability of continuing through the end of the year, a range Columbia called "remarkably high and narrow".
On 2 June, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization confirmed "that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns around the world in the months ahead." The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts released a forecast of a central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly of , which would make it the strongest on record.
The global average sea surface temperature for June reached an all-time record high of . That month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the emergence of a strong El Niño, giving it a 63% chance of becoming intense enough by late fall and early winter to be one of the strongest on record.
Timeline April 20 April – Columbia University's Climate School reports that the weak La Niña event had transitioned into an ENSO-neutral state.
May 21 May – Computer modeling by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested the development of an El Niño event was likely by the July through September peak of the Pacific hurricane season.
June The northern hemisphere summer temperatures in the east-central Pacific are among the highest on record, with NOAA predicting them to exceed those of past powerful El Niños.
2 JuneThe United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially confirmed that El Niño conditions are actively developing in the tropical Pacific. This rapid transition follows a remarkably high 97–98% probability forecast from Columbia University's Climate School. 11 JuneA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notice stated that "El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27".
July
August 5 August – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a global seasonal update confirming that a developing El Niño event, combined with positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and record-warm global sea surface temperatures, is projected to drive above-normal temperatures globally throughout the August–October season. 22 August – Global sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions reached a record daily average of 21.10 °C (69.98 °F) according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, surpassing previous records driven by an intensifying El Niño and underlying global warming.
September The WMO issued an unusually dire report that El Niño is "supersizing before our eyes" and forecast that it would likely be the strongest event since monitoring began. Records on El Niño magnitude date back to 1950. September, which is considered to be the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, has not seen a single Atlantic hurricane forming in the 2026 season, marking the latest season to feature no hurricanes since the first weather satellites were launched in the 1960s. Typically, three hurricanes have already formed in the north Atlantic by late-September, but due to increased vertical wind shear, no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic to date, the first season during the satellite era to do so, and breaking a more than a hundred-year-old record; the last season to feature no hurricanes during September was the 1914 season, which eventually did not record any hurricanes at all, although it is possible that some systems were undetected during that year. In contrast, the Pacific season was hyperactive due to El Niño conditions, with the number of named storms in the northeastern by September Pacific being about 40% above average for this time of year. Hawaii, an area that was previously hit by Hurricane Lala in August, was grazed by Hurricane Lowell and was also threatened by Hurricane Nolo. Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific basin, Hurricane Polo hit western Mexico the same month; both Lowell and Polo peaked as Category 5 hurricanes, while Nolo peaked as a high-end Category 4.
14 September - The Niño 3.4 Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which measures how far above the normal temperature a certain region of the Pacific surface has become, reached 2 °C, the NOAA's official criterion for a "very strong" El Niño event. Monthly RONI values remain below 2 °C as of 15 September; a rolling average of three months of data is required to fully gauge the event. Daily Nino 3.4 SST Values also reach 3 °C, becoming one of only two El Niños to achieve daily Niño index 3.4 SSTs of 3 °C since modern recording began in 1950, the other being the 2014-2016 El Nino.
21 September – The very strong El Niño reaches a record-breaking 3.05°C rise as measured against the average of 1991-2020, months before the usual peak in November or December, when it is forecast as per the average of 14 models to reach 4.0 °C.
Preparations The scale of this event notwithstanding, given that El Niño is a well-known phenomenon that has been studied for many decades, preparations can be made for specific geographic areas which have historically been impacted, particularly southern Africa.
On 4 June 2026, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Programme issued their first joint appeal for donations to avert a global humanitarian crisis. The World Meteorological Organization also urged preparation.
In mid-July, the NOAA gave 97% odds that a strong El Niño would persist through spring 2027.
The charity Americares, noting any strong El Niño's impact on the severity of heat, wildfires (and wildfire smoke), flooding, and hurricanes, termed the expected scenario as "a global shuffling of risk". Regional preparations vary. For example, Southern California anticipates severe rain and flooding, with the harbingers of unusually severe king tides already occurring in August whereas Australia anticipates drought and severe wildfires, and India expects an erratic, drier monsoon season.
Areas of Africa have barely recovered from the effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño event, having experienced extreme floods and droughts. Oxfam is coordinating with other aid groups to shore up vital infrastructure such as electrical and water systems. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) are aiming to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries with anticipatory action funding for resilience projects to get ahead of the crisis.
China has launched a 100-day campaign to prepare for the effects of alternating severe rain, drought, and heat on agriculture and updating its early weather warning system, with cities being encouraged to draw up their own "climate risk" plans. Policies are being changed from municipal down to the corporate level, with employers in the financial sector, for example, being mandated to provide public health measures, being at risk of prosecution if they fail to implement them.
The top climate expert at the African Development Bank anticipates that this event will reduce GDP in heavily affected countries by 1% to 2% on average, about $10–$20 billion across the continent, and prompt mass migration from the hardest-hit areas.
In Kenya, more directly affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority issued an early alert in mid-June, but government preparations were critiqued in late July by former chief justice and United Green Movement (UGM) party leader David Maraga. The agency has since called on both national and county governments to promote climate-smart agriculture, improving drainage systems, strengthening early warning systems, and advising farmers on suitable crop varieties for wetter conditions.
Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (ACP), drawing on its experience with the 2023–2024 El Niño event, anticipates that "capacity restrictions will likely be implemented," namely limiting the number of slots for transit and/or the draft—a de facto measure of water displacement—TEU commercial shipping due to falling water levels. It also holds a once-a-day auction for vessels to skip the queue in lieu of a flat fee. The starting bids range from approximately $15,000 for smaller cargo vessels and $55,000 for the largest. In mid-August, a 10,100 TEU won with a $4,000,000 bid to skip the 10-day backlog, double the average bid for the previous seven days.
A May 2026 report from British international affairs think tank Chatham House warned that a strong El Niño could compound existing climate risks in the United Kingdom. The Burnham government acknowledged risks that El Niño creates for food security and severe weather. It has said that it is investing in specific climate modelling services, and has a plan to coordinate responses to severe weather. Following a series of roundtables in the UK convening academics and industry experts, the Government Office for Science identified a series of impacts, including specific risks to food supply and higher prices for commodities such as rice, cocoa and coffee. The Burnham government also noted the potential for changing global weather patterns to increase demand for liquified natural gas, placing additional pressure on domestic energy security.
Impact
On 22 August 2026, measurements from the Copernicus Climate Change Service recorded the highest average sea surface temperature between 60°N and 60°S in recorded history of , surpassing the prior record of set in March 2024. Copernicus attributed the record to heat added by El Niño in addition to "decades of human-driven warming".
Satellite imagery from NASA's Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Earth observation satellite recorded a significant decrease in concentrations of chlorophyll in the oceans, indicating a precipitous decline in phytoplankton concentrations. Goddard Space Flight Centre oceanographers Graham Trolley and Matthew Kehrli stated that the suppression of nutrient-rich water to the surface due to weakened easterly trade winds and lower upwelling leads to decreased phytoplankton growth. This in turn lowers available food for zooplankton, thus lowering available food for fish, marine mammals, and seabirds higher on the food web.
Africa Environmental researchers of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network attributed Summer 2026 droughts in regions of eastern Africa, including Ethiopia and western Kenya, to the relatively earlier start and intensification of the 2026–2027 El Niño event. Poor maize and grain harvests in the region were attributed in part due to significantly lower rainfall impacted by the El Niño event.