From May 20–23, 2019, a significant and deadly tornado outbreak took place across the Central Plains. Coming just days after a previous outbreak in the same general regions, approximately 114 tornadoes touched down over the course of the outbreak. On May 20, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a high risk for portions of Oklahoma in what was anticipated to be a major outbreak with violent, long-tracked tornadoes; however conditions were less favorable then expected, and only moderate activity occurred. In the early morning hours of May 22, an EF2 tornado severely damaged a house near Adair, Iowa, killing one person and injuring another. Later that evening, an EF3 tornado caused severe damage in Carl Junction, Missouri, while another EF3 tornado destroyed homes near Golden City, killing three people and injuring one. Just before midnight, an EF3 tornado damaged or destroyed many homes and businesses in Jefferson City, killing one person and injuring 32 others.

Four people were killed due to the outbreak, while five died as a result of flooding caused by torrential rains from this system. 37 people were injured, while total damage costs were believed to be in excess of $174 million.

Meterological synopsis May 20

On the morning of May 20, 2019, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, issued a high risk for severe weather across western and central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Characterized by extreme instability and low-level shear, along with a wind profile supporting the development of numerous widely spaced discrete supercell thunderstorms, conditions in place across this region were remarkably favorable for a large outbreak of violent, long-tracked tornadoes. As a precaution, many public school districts, private schools and colleges (including the University of Oklahoma) throughout Oklahoma announced during the afternoon and evening of May 19 that they would cancel all classes and extracurricular activities for the following day, if not hold classes during the morning only. Ironically, in response to the deaths of seven students at Plaza Towers Elementary School in Moore after an EF5 tornado hit that school and nearby Briarwood Elementary six years earlier on May 20, 2013, several of the public primary and secondary schools that canceled classes had since installed underground storm shelters for student and faculty use in the event that a tornado approached during school time. The El Reno, Oklahoma school district—which has storm shelters at seven of its schools (six underground and one above-ground shelter)—was one of the few in sections of central and western Oklahoma under highest threat of significant severe weather that decided to hold regular classes that day; El Reno Superintendent Craig McVay defended the decision on safety grounds, acknowledging that between 75% and 90% of students in the district do not have shelters in their home. Businesses, churches and other venues also decided to cancel events and activities, while some city-government offices (including in Oklahoma City) and Tinker Air Force Base instituted liberal leave policies to allow employees to arrive home prior to the onset of severe thunderstorm activity. By midday, the SPC increased the risk of significant tornadoes in northern portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwestern and central Oklahoma (including the Oklahoma City metropolitan area) from 30% to 45%.

The Storm Prediction Center issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch (the 197th severe weather watch issued in 2019) at 1:35 p.m. CDT for portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle and the Texas High Plains. A second PDS Tornado Watch (watch #199) was issued at 2:45 p.m. CDT for much of Oklahoma and western portions of north Texas, indicating >95% probabilities for all severe hazards (including probabilities of at least two tornadoes and one or more strong tornadoes [rated EF2 or higher], ten or more cases of straight-line thunderstorm winds of at least and at least one case of winds of at least , and ten or more cases of hail of at least in diameter and at least one case of hail larger than in diameter); this was the second PDS watch with such high probabilities of significant severe weather to be issued by the SPC, after one issued for much of Alabama and portions of southeast Mississippi, southern middle Tennessee and northwest Georgia during the historic Super Outbreak of April 27, 2011.

Despite the extremely volatile and dangerous setup, the large outbreak of violent tornadoes that was expected did not occur. The most likely reason that the outbreak did not reach its potential is because the upper-level jet was displaced from the warm sector. As a result, this limited the necessary forcing needed for storms to initiate in greater coverage. The positioning of the upper jet can also influence warm air advection at the mid-levels () that can lead to stronger capping. Finally, expansive cloud cover also likely limited the day time heating necessary for the cap to break. These ingredients all together likely caused the missed forecast.

However, several strong tornadoes did touch down in Oklahoma and Texas during the afternoon and early evening. A large EF2 tornado damaged homes, destroyed outbuildings, and damaged the roof of an apartment building in Mangum, Oklahoma. In Texas, another EF2 tornado destroyed mobile homes and RV campers near Midland. An EF3 tornado touched down outside of the nearby city of Odessa, destroying oil pump jacks and leaving behind a swath of ground scouring as it moved through open oil fields. A large EF2 wedge tornado also struck the town of Peggs, Oklahoma, significantly damaging homes and businesses, and injuring one person. A total of 39 tornadoes were confirmed.

May 21 On May 21, the Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for parts of Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas, along with a slight risk for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. A 10% risk area for tornadoes was in place over The Ozarks. Dozens of tornadoes occurred throughout the day, including an EF1 tornado that touched down in Tulsa, Oklahoma, damaging homes and trees, and injuring one person. An EF2 tornado occurred near Dale, Oklahoma, destroying a mobile home, while another EF2 tornado caused considerable damage in and around the town of Mayetta, Kansas. The strongest tornado of the day was an EF3 tornado that heavily damaged a brick home near Bern, Kansas, and left cycloidal scouring marks in open farm fields. A total of 31 tornadoes were confirmed on May 21. This day, severe weather resulted in a fatal car crash, which killed two people, as well as the drowning of another driver in Perkins, Oklahoma. A baseball game between the Saint Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals was postponed due to the severe weather.Royals, Cardinals postponed, will play 2 Wednesday, The Spokesman Review, May 21, 2019

May 22

The outbreak on this day had been poorly forecasted. The initial risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center on May 20 was only marginal while also being well west from where the severe weather event took place. The next day the outlook was expanded and upgraded with a small slight risk, but that was issued in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri and the main outbreak region was only in the marginal risk. On May 22, however, the risk area was shifted southeastward and an enhanced risk was added for northeast Oklahoma northeastward through southeastern Kansas into western Missouri. At 16:30 UTC, the enhanced risk was expanded and a moderate risk for severe weather was issued for those same regions, including a 15% hatched risk for tornadoes. The potential for strong tornadoes existed from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, to Columbia, Missouri. Before the main outbreak took place, an early-morning EF2 tornado struck near Adair, Iowa, with one fatality and an injury occurring at a home that sustained major structural damage. By 4:30 PM CDT, three Tornado Watches, stretching from north-central Texas to northwest and west-central Illinois were in effect, with two of them classified as PDS watches. That evening, an EF3 tornado struck the town of Carl Junction, Missouri, causing major damage to homes. This tornado occurred just north of where the EF5 Joplin tornado had occurred exactly eight years prior. The same parent supercell thunderstorm later produced the deadliest tornado of the outbreak sequence; a multiple-vortex EF3 tornado that destroyed several homes and killed three people near Golden City, Missouri. An EF2 tornado also caused significant damage in the town of Jay, Oklahoma. The most destructive tornado of the night was a high-end EF3 tornado that tore directly through Jefferson City, Missouri, where numerous homes, apartments, and businesses were heavily damaged or destroyed. At least 34 people were injured in Jefferson City, including one man who succumbed to his injuries a few days later. Overall, a total of 31 tornadoes were confirmed on this day.

Confirmed tornadoes

Jasper–Golden City, Missouri

The deadliest tornado of the outbreak sequence began five miles to the southeast of Jasper, Missouri, during the evening of May 22. The large and powerful multiple-vortex tornado touched down along Redbud Road, immediately reaching EF2 strength. Large wooden transmission line supports were snapped and a house had its roof torn off. A garage in this area also sustained roof damage. The tornado then crossed Sumac Road, inflicting significant damage to some homes and outbuildings in this area, and scattering debris across roads. The tornado then weakened to EF1 strength as it approached and crossed the Barton County line. Numerous trees and power poles were downed, a house sustained shingle damage, and a barn had its sheet metal roofing peeled off in this area. Continuing to the northeast, the large tornado rapidly re-intensified and reached EF3 strength as it passed to the west of Golden City. As the tornado moved across SE 80th Lane, three homes were badly damaged or destroyed. Two people were killed as a block-foundation farmhouse was completely leveled with debris strewn long distances through nearby fields. Another home sustained roof loss and failure of exterior walls. A metal equipment shed was mangled and destroyed, and large trees in this area were snapped and denuded. Maintaining EF3 intensity, the tornado then crossed the intersection of Route 126 and SE 90th Lane, where a brick home sustained roof and exterior wall loss, and a mobile home was obliterated and swept away, resulting in another fatality. In addition, large trees were snapped and a few other homes sustained roof, window, and siding damage. Beyond this point, the tornado began to weaken rapidly as it moved to the north of Golden City. A final area of EF0 tree limb damage was observed along E County Road U before the tornado dissipated. In addition to the 3 fatalities, one other person was injured by this tornado, which was rated EF3.

Eldon–Jefferson City, Missouri