of the Shinkansen refer to route plans for which a basic plan has been officially announced, but which have not progressed to subsequent stages such as development planning or construction.
The Shinkansen, a high-speed rail system of Japan, is planned and constructed based on the , which is determined and publicly announced by the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (formerly the Minister of Transport) in accordance with Article 4 (Basic Plan) of the (Act No. 71 of 1970).
After the basic plan is decided, surveys are conducted (Article 5), followed by the formulation of a development plan (Article 7), and then the commencement of construction (Article 8). A route at the stage where the basic plan has been decided is referred to as a Kihon Keikaku Rosen, while a route that has progressed to the stage where a development plan has been determined is called a .
As described below, four rounds of official designations have been made to date. Of these, the routes specified in the first through third designations have either fully or partially opened, or construction has commenced. (The only exception is the Narita Shinkansen, which was canceled in its entirety.) In contrast, of the eleven routes presented in the fourth announcement in November 1973, ten routes—excluding the maglev Chūō Shinkansen—remain at the basic plan stage as of 2026, with no construction having commenced. These ten routes, together with the Sapporo — Asahikawa section of the Hokkaidō Shinkansen (which also remains at the basic plan stage), are collectively referred to as the Kihon Keikaku Rosen.
These Kihon Keikaku Rosen remain at the conceptual stage and have not yet entered construction. Although these basic plans were formulated in 1973, they have effectively remained stalled ever since, with no advancement to date.
Nevertheless, they are considered candidate routes for future development once the Shinkansen lines currently under construction (the Seibi Shinkansen and the Chūō Shinkansen) are completed and opened. For this reason, depending on the route, promotional activities are being carried out by local governments (prefectures and municipalities) and regional business communities, such as those for the Shikoku Shinkansen and the . On the other hand, there are also routes where such movements are hardly seen.
Designations
Designation No. 17 of 1971 January 18, 1971 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 17 (Amended: July 3, 1972 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 242) Line nameJapaneseStarting pointTerminalMajor intermediate locationsCurrent statusPlan changesTōhoku Shinkansen東北新幹線TokyoAomoriNear Utsunomiya, near Sendai, MoriokaFully openTerminal changed from Morioka to Aomori.Ministry of Transport Notification No. 242 of July 3, 1972Jōetsu Shinkansen上越新幹線TokyoNiigataFully open Narita Shinkansen成田新幹線TokyoNaritaCanceledThe basic plan lost its legal validity and was abolished.Article 32, Paragraph 2 of the Supplementary Provisions of the Act for Enforcement of the Japanese National Railways Reform Act, etc. (Act No. 93 of 1986)
Designation No. 243 of 1972 July 3, 1972 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 243 (Amended: November 15, 1973 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 465)
The four routes designated in 1972 are referred to as the .
Line nameJapaneseStarting pointTerminalMajor intermediate locationsCurrent statusPlan changesHokkaidō Shinkansen北海道新幹線AomoriAsahikawaNear Hakodate, SapporoPartially open; partly under construction; partly unbuilt Terminal changed from Sapporo to Asahikawa.Ministry of Transport Notification No. 465 of November 15, 1973Hokuriku Shinkansen北陸新幹線TokyoOsakaNear Nagano, near ToyamaPartially open; partly unbuilt Kyūshū Shinkansen (Kagoshima Route)九州新幹線 (鹿児島ルート)FukuokaKagoshimaFully open
Designation No. 466 of 1972 December 12, 1972 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 466 Line nameJapaneseStarting pointTerminalMajor intermediate locationsCurrent statusNishi Kyūshū Shinkansen (Kyūshū Shinkansen West Kyūshū Route)西九州新幹線 (九州新幹線西九州ルート)FukuokaNagasakiSagaPartly open; partly unbuilt
Designation No. 466 of 1973 November 15, 1973 – Ministry of Transport Notification No. 466
The following routes, excluding the Chūō Shinkansen and including the Sapporo — Asahikawa section of the Hokkaidō Shinkansen, are referred to as the .
Line nameJapaneseStarting pointTerminalMajor intermediate locationsCurrent statusHokkaidō Minami-mawari Shinkansen北海道南回り新幹線OshamanbeSapporoNear MuroranUetsu Shinkansen羽越新幹線ToyamaAomoriNear Niigata, near AkitaŌu Shinkansen奥羽新幹線FukushimaAkitaNear YamagataChūō Shinkansen中央新幹線TokyoOsakaNear Kōfu, near Nagoya, near NaraPartly under construction; partly unbuilt Hokuriku–Chūkyō Shinkansen北陸・中京新幹線TsurugaNagoyaSanin Shinkansen山陰新幹線OsakaShimonosekiNear Tottori, near MatsueChūgoku Ōdan Shinkansen中国横断新幹線OkayamaMatsueShikoku Shinkansen四国新幹線OsakaŌitaNear Tokushima, near Takamatsu, near MatsuyamaShikoku Ōdan Shinkansen四国横断新幹線OkayamaKōchiHigashi Kyūshū Shinkansen東九州新幹線FukuokaKagoshimaNear Ōita, near MiyazakiKyūshū Ōdan Shinkansen九州横断新幹線ŌitaKumamoto
Developments
The lines for which basic plans were announced in 1971 have all been fully opened, with the exception of the Narita Shinkansen, whose plan was canceled.
The lines for which basic plans were announced in 1972 had their construction plans approved in 1973. These lines are referred to as the . Many sections have already opened or begun construction, although some sections remain unstarted.
The routes for which basic plans were announced in 1973 have traditionally been referred to as . However, in 2011, a development plan for the maglev Chūō Shinkansen— to be constructed independently by JR Central—was approved, and as a result, the Chūō Shinkansen is no longer classified as a Kihon Keikaku Rosen. As for the remaining routes, all of them remain unstarted as of 2026.
These basic plans were established in 1973 during Japanese economic miracle. However, following the 1973 oil crisis, policies to restrain total demand were implemented, and the construction of Seibi Shinkansen lines that had been scheduled to proceed first was frozen. Combined with the end of Japan's high-growth era, all of these plans were effectively suspended. Since then, up to the present day, there has been no progress on these plans (except for the Chūō Shinkansen).
Since fiscal year 2017, the MLIT has conducted annual studies titled , examining methods for developing the nation's trunk railway network. Topics covered in relation to the Kihon Keikaku Rosen include the construction cost and transport capacity of single-track Shinkansen systems, the construction period and cost of upgrading the Great Seto Bridge to accommodate double-track Shinkansen operations, and flow analyses of already-opened Shinkansen sections that could serve as components in new cost–benefit (B/C) evaluation methodologies.
In the , this research is described as "undertaking verification of the social and economic effects of Shinkansen development, as well as studies on effective and efficient methods for Shinkansen construction and operation". The White Paper on Transport Policy is an annual report published by the MLIT and submitted to the National Diet, in accordance with Article 14, paragraphs 1 and 2 of the (Act No. 92 of 2013), with the aim of informing the public about trends in transportation and government policies related to transportation.
On June 16, 2023, following a recommendation by the , the Second Kishida Cabinet (First Reshuffled) approved the policy commonly known as the "Basic Policy 2023" at a Cabinet meeting. The document states that "studies and examinations will be conducted on future directions tailored to regional circumstances regarding the enhancement of Kihon Keikaku Rosen and trunk railway networks", marking the first time that studies related to Kihon Keikaku Rosen were included in this policy framework. In addition, the Kishida Cabinet proceeded with revisions to the under the , and on July 28 approved the Third National Spatial Strategy (National Plan) at a Cabinet meeting, incorporating the same wording regarding studies on Kihon Keikaku Rosen.
In January 2026, led by the Governor of Ōita Prefecture as the principal organizer, promotion groups for six lines—the Uetsu, Ōu, Sanin, Chūgoku Ōdan, Shikoku, and Higashi Kyūshū Shinkansen—gathered together for the first time and held a calling for the advancement of the development plans for each line.
Conditions for commencement of construction
Suppose that a Kihon Keikaku Rosen route were to advance one stage beyond the basic plan phase and be upgraded to a status equivalent to that of the current Seibi Shinkansen lines.
In that case, if the same scheme as the current Seibi Shinkansen were applied, the following five conditions would need to be satisfied before actual construction could begin:
Securing a stable outlook for financial resources Financial viability Cost–benefit performance Consent of the JR company as the operating entity Consent of the affected local governments regarding the separation of heikō zairaisen (parallel conventional lines)
Kihon Keikaku Rosen, by their nature, often pass through areas with relatively small populations along the corridor. Moreover, Japan is currently facing a declining birthrate and aging population, with depopulation progressing particularly in rural regions, making future growth in ridership unlikely. Combined with the recent sharp rise in construction costs, the hurdle for meeting the requirements of financial viability and cost–benefit performance is becoming higher year by year.
In addition, under the Seibi Shinkansen scheme, a portion of the construction cost is to be borne by local governments along the route. However, this cost allocation is not based on the degree of benefit received by each prefecture, but rather on a strictly territorial basis. In other words, even if a given prefecture has limited need for the line, it is still required to bear (a portion of) the construction cost for the section passing through its territory. As a result, such prefectures tend to be reluctant toward those route options (e.g., Shiga Prefecture in the Maibara Route proposal for the Hokuriku Shinkansen ).
Furthermore, under the Seibi Shinkansen scheme, the separation of heikō zairaisen—whereby they are transferred to third-sector railway companies funded by local governments—is permitted. This creates the possibility that a prefecture may be required not only to bear the construction costs of a Shinkansen line it does not need, but also to assume responsibility for loss-making conventional lines (e.g., Saga Prefecture in the case of the Nishi Kyūshū Shinkansen ). As a result, the condition of obtaining the consent of all affected local governments has become a particularly high hurdle for many route proposals.
In addition, since the division and privatization of Japanese National Railways, each JR company has continued to operate as a completely separate corporation, and their interests do not necessarily align. As a result, for example, if a route proposal involves through-running onto another Shinkansen line operated by a different JR company partway along the route, obtaining the consent of the JR company designated as the operating entity can become difficult, since the revenue from that section would effectively accrue to the other company.
Hokkaidō Shinkansen extension to Asahikawa