An election for the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; ) is due to held on 2 May 2030, to elect all 96 members to the Senedd. Under the provisions of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, Senedd terms were reduced from five-year to four-year terms since the previous election. It will be the eighth devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999.
Electoral system
The Senedd has 96 members, elected through closed list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in sixteen six-member constituencies. A boundary review modifying the boundaries of the 16 constituencies is expected prior to the 2030 election. The new constituencies must sit within 10% of the Welsh average, so between 135,225 and 165,275 voters.
Voters are given one ballot, and vote for a political party or an independent candidate. The six members in their constituency are then distributed proportionally to the parties based on how many votes they received, electing the candidates in the order on their ranked party list. The ballot paper shows the list of (up to) eight candidates next to each party in order.
In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns, dies, or otherwise leaves office during the term, they are replaced by the member below them on their party's list. Should the relevant party's list for that constituency be exhausted, the seat remains vacant for the remainder of the term.
Opinion polling Opinion polls have been held since the 2026 election.
DatesconductedPollsterClientSamplesizePCRefLabConGrnLDOthersLead24-30 September 2026More in CommonCavendish Cymru32%27%18%12%6%5%1% 515 September 2026YouGovITV WalesUnknown32%27%13%11%7%5%5% 513–24 August 2026SurvationYesCymru1,02333%31%14%9%6%5%2% 22026 Senedd election– 35.4%29.3%11.1%10.7%6.7%4.5%2.3%6.1
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