The next Tasmanian state election is expected to be held sometime in 2029 to elect all 35 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

The election follows the 2025 Tasmanian state election, which delivered a hung parliament in which no party had a legislative majority. 2025 Tasmanian government formation negotiations proved largely unsuccessful, with then-Labor leader Dean Winter unable to convince crossbenchers to support his bid for government. In the August 2025 no-confidence motion in Rockliff, the Greens, SFF and all independent crossbenchers supported the Liberal government, citing Labor unwillingness to negotiate. Josh Willie took leadership of the Labor Party following the 2025 Tasmanian Labor Party leadership election.

Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff is expected to contest the election in attempt to win a sixth consecutive election, with Josh Willie attempting to lead the Labor Party into government for the first time since 2014. The Greens, SFF and other minor parties are also expected to contest.

Background Changes in parliament On 2 January 2026, Helen Burnet resigned from the Tasmanian Greens to sit as an independent saying she wanted to be more "effective, accountable and heard". Seat Before Change AfterMember PartyTypeDateDateMember PartyClarkHelen BurnetGreensResignation 2 January 2026Helen BurnetIndependent

Retiring MPs

Independent Peter George (Franklin) – announced retirement 17 April 2026

Candidates Parties registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) are eligible to contest the election. Seven parties were registered as of 21 August 2026:

Animal Justice (did not endorse candidates in 2025) Greens Labor Liberal The Nationals One Nation Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Opinion polling Voting intention

Date Polling firm Client Samplesize Margin oferror Primary vote LIB ALP GRN ONP SFF NAT IND Others1–20 Sep 2026DemosAU 1,097±3.6% 28%22%15%21%2% 10%2%17–18 Aug 2026EMRS 1,000±3.1% 26%23%16%21% 14% 21 Jun—6 Jul 2026DemosAU 999±3.6% 28%21%14%21%2% 12%2%EMRS 1,000 ±3.1% 25% 24% 14% 19% 16% 1%16–19 Feb 2026EMRS 947 ±3.1% 29% 23% 15% 14% 15% 3% 27 Jan – 12 Feb 2026 DemosAU 1,071 ±3.6% 35% 23% 15% 4% 17% 6%17–21 Nov 2025EMRS 1,000±3.1%34%25%17% 19% 6% 16–27 Oct 2025 DemosAU 1,021 ±4.4% 41% 24% 15% 2% 14% 4% 25–28 Aug 2025 EMRS 1,047 ±3.02% 38% 24% 13% 19% 6% 20 Jul 2025 2025 election 39.9% 25.9% 14.4% — 2.9% 1.6% 15.3% —

Leadership approval Preferred premier

Date Polling firm Client Samplesize Party leadersNet Rockliff Willie Unsure 1–20 Sep 2026DemosAU 1,097 42%34%24% 8%17–18 Aug 2026EMRS 1,000 37%30%33% 7%DemosAU 999 41%32%27% 9%11–13 May 2026EMRS 1,000 44% 25% 34% 19%16–19 Feb 2026EMRS 947 40% 26% 34% 14% 27 Jan – 12 Feb 2026 DemosAU 1,071 43% 32% 25% 12% 16–27 Oct 2025 DemosAU 1,021 46% 34% 20% 12% 25–28 Aug 2025 EMRS 1,047 50% 24% 23% 26%

Individual politician favourability Liberal Date Polling firm Client Samplesize Liberal politician net favourability Abetz BarnettRockliff Archer1–20 Sep 2026DemosAU 1,097-18%-7%0%-4% DemosAU 1,021 -19% -14%-3% 25–28 Aug 2025EMRS 1,047 18%

Labor Date Polling firm Client Samplesize Winter Willie Haddad 1–20 Sep 2026DemosAU 1,097-14%-8-5 DemosAU 1,021 -33%-5 25–28 Aug 2025 EMRS 1,047 -9% 4%

Crossbench Date Polling firm Client Samplesize Crossbench politician net favourability Woodruff Garland George Johnston O'Byrne 1–20 Sep 2026DemosAU 1,097-12% 4% 9% DemosAU 1,021 -20% -10% -2% 0% 25–28 Aug 2025 EMRS 1,047 -2% +3% +4% +12% +21%

Notes

References